Volcanic Winter

What ultimate influence will this have on our winter patterns / temps / snowfall chances? I’m not extremely well read on the Indian Ocean Dipole. Thanks!

HTHH only released about 400,000 tons of sulphur, most of what would’ve normally been released into the atmosphere leached and reacted into the ocean instead. Pinatubo released 19 million tons. The influence of volcanic ash and water vapor having an effect? Definitely. But the sulphur load was not high enough for a direct climate effect, or at least not one that’s easily measurable. Here’s a paper on it showing Pinatubo at 17Mt, but figures vary across sources. I’ve seen estimates up to 20Mt for Pinatubo. https://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/self/ Note that it lists the volume of the eruption at 5km^3 which is a DRE value (dense rock equivalent), to get the more usually given tephra value it’s multiplied by 2.5 which produces a small VEI 6 eruption (which of course is a very large event overall, just on the lowest end of the 6 scale). Edit: See here as well https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/natural-disasters/amp/sulphur-dioxide-from-caribbean-volcano-reaches-india-wmo-confirms-76547 The VEI 4 2021 eruption of Soufriere in the Caribbean released about 600,000 tons of SO2, which is more than HTHH. VEI 4’s do not typically cool the climate, that begins more at the high end of VEI 5 with commensurately high sulphur releases, which for several reasons HTHH lacked. All of this is not to say HTHH isn’t currently affecting the climate; it almost certainly is. This one’s just complicated, and I’m very curious to read a retrospective analysis in a year or two.

It was very large with estimates of a high VEI 5 to low 6 (about 6km^3 of material up to 15ish or so km^3). Pinatubo was roughly 11 - 12 km^3, a low end 6. But both Novarupta in 1912 and Krakatau in 1886 were up to 30km^3 of material, and Tambora in 1815 was an enormous VEI 7 with over 100km^3 of volcanic material. It was a very, very large event with respect to modern times, but it is handily eclipsed going back a hundred to a couple hundred years. The absolute highest value for HTHH I’ve seen backed by a paper was about 20km^3, but that appears to be a high end outlier. And to reiterate, it was quite sulphur poor as the majority of SO2 leached into the ocean instead of being blasted into the stratosphere where it would have a cooling effect. Only about 1/40th of the stratospheric SO2 release of Pinatubo was measured, and Pinatubo reduced temperatures by about 1-2 degrees F (and also masked sea level rise by quite a bit, a separate but equally interesting topic to research. Edit: added a link to an article about this at the end). There are other volcanic particulates than can induce cooling that HTHH released, but I’m more intrigued by the massive release of water vapor. That is not typical and as mentioned could have a warming effect. Regardless, some instability in the climate system upwards or downwards with respect to temperature and patterns seems to be a given. edit: Here is an article written by a university professor regarding Pinatubo’s influence on the oceans. It’s very fascinating. https://www.volcanocafe.org/when-pinatubo-turned-the-tide/

Recently upgraded to a high VEI 5 to potentially a 6, it’s about at the size where a real climate impact is possible. However, it only released a fraction of the sulphur load into the stratosphere that Pinatubo did, as most of it apparently leached / reacted into the ocean instead. Still, there are more volcanic particulates involved and there have been documented volcanic sunsets around the globe including in the northern hemisphere. It’s just odd that normally an eruption of this size, AFAIK, generally keeps its effects within the same hemisphere. Perhaps because the column reached, absurdly, into the mesosphere? A geophysicist/volcanologist I follow believes it will / and is currently impacting the climate system. I’m curious to see if anything is ultimately linked to it. Pinatubo caused a significant impact for the following several years in the early - mid 1990’s but was far more sulphur rich.

I hit 47.9 down south here last night. Pretty insane, actually.

Just hit 56.4. I am actually curious how low I go tonight. For living relatively far south down in Toms River, I live in a cold pocket on the western inland edge of the town. All winter I hit lower lows than the official station which is a few miles east of me.

57.7 on my Tempest right now. Ocean Co. This weather is amazing. Made me think of winter and compelled me to read through the rest of May and all June's threads today, lol. Is it winter yet?

The EF3 tornado in Mullica Hills NJ last September 1st was mind blowing. It definitely can happen, albeit rare for such a powerful tornado to form here. That thing looked like a Deep South multi vortex wedge; insane.

As an ode to my username, it’s very interesting that recent analyses are concluding that Hunga Tonga actually was a very large VEI 5 to even potentially VEI 6 Pinatubo sized eruption. That would’ve been enough to have a very substantial climate impact, had Hunga Tonga not released only about 1/40th of the sulfur as Pinatubo. Looks like the majority of it leached /reacted into the ocean instead of being blasted into the stratosphere. Pinatubo is the only modern eruption to cause a volcanic winter (to a lesser extent El Chicón as well), would’ve been very interesting to see how a similarly sized eruption would impact the current climate with 30 years of additional warming. Pinatubo was something like a -1.5F anomaly overall. Pinatubo even cooled SST’s for a few years. When I have time I can pull up a very interesting article from a physicist I follow about this if anyone were interested.

What would be the impact of a Modoki La Niña on our weather if one were to form? What is the difference in general? I read about Modoki El Niño’s before and IIRC it refers to cooler water off the western coast of South America than would be otherwise expected.

Driving the parkway I’m shocked how barren it is at this point in April. At what point do the trees and flowers normally open up, and have things been delayed this year from the recurrent frosts? Not an area I’m much familiar with. Even last night my property skirted 32 degrees prior to sunup. None of my flowers have peaked out yet, trees still only basic small buds, and my cherry tree looks rather haggard and displeased.

This was our overnight low on Monday, 12ish miles inland from the ocean Co coast. Took me by surprise. Cold, cold morning for April. Was quite a bit colder in actuality even than forecast.

I honestly don’t mind so much living at the coast of NJ as far as snow is concerned. I’m far enough inland to avoid extreme coastal mixing and rain, and I’m always potentially in the bullseye. We miss more types of storms than you guys up north and of course our average isn’t as high, but we’re always in the game for those big MECS+ we get every year to every few years. I’ve been in Rochester visiting family through their lake effect snow, I’ve been in upstate Ny in the winter, and I’ve lived much further north in NJ until relatively recently. I would always miss our coastal bombs (especially the sharp cutoff kind, we did phenomenally with the big one this winter), even if I’d very much appreciate the greater consistency of 4-8” snowfalls in the winter further north. Definitely plans to move out of state and much further north in the next 5-10 years, wife is onboard. For now, I’ll enjoy playing that coastal lottery because when it hits … .

A lovely cool spring so far. I genuinely prefer when spring is not just an extension of our hot and humid summers, we’re to have quite enough of that in the coming months. For us spring should be light to moderate jacket weather with daytime highs that don’t make you feel like you’re in a sauna with a massive UV lamp overhead. I have no idea how humans survive in the deep inland South. I would expire within one season…

Fascinating Bluewave. Thank you.

I’ll take it. Beautiful crisp air. Makes me feel refreshed and awake. Don’t worry guys, I lose by default. It’ll be hot and humid here before you know it. These types of events are transient and rare for us anymore. What does seem to be increasing is our prevalence for tornadoes; how about that Mullica Hills EF3 last September? Never thought I’d see what appeared to be a Deep South multivortex dirty wedge in NJ

Well, in the years to come you’re going to keep getting a heck of a lot more of it as our winters erode bit by bit. I find it rather difficult to cheer on unseasonable warmth as it more or less continues to herald our new climate realities. I’ve said it before and at the risk of being a broken record, try to find appreciation for the cold (any cold, even in the spring) while it’s still possible here. We seem to be heading at breakneck speeds toward mild winters and increasingly hot and humid shoulder seasons and summers. Personally, that doesn’t thrill me but I guess I “get it” in terms of people who prefer warmer climates. But be careful what you wish for, IMO.

Warm records in winter flowing like wine; I hate it. All in all, a meh winter offset by a wintry January. I’d of taken a slightly warmer Jan for a colder Dec and Feb. Just hoping we’ve not seen the last of true winters here. Seems very difficult to conclude that’s the case, but at the very least the chances of a proper winter seem to be diminishing as we hit warm record after warm record. If this is it for winter this year, see you all next year! Was a blast despite the general disappointment, very happy I finally signed up here. Very intelligent and interesting bunch of posters. Hoping for one more cold shot at the end of the month, but not holding my breath!

My Tempest station has me at 46 at the moment, light rain. Pressure though is cratering; 996mb.

Hoping this one produces for you guys! I’ll be thrilled to see a flake at the C/S NJ coast. Interesting system though at least. Get it guys.

1/29 saved it for me down here. Good storm for the NJ coast and LI. Happy at least many of you near the city overperformed a bit on that one. Was for sure the most fun event of the winter and it was a blast tracking it with you all.

BRB moving to Hyde Park.

Can confirm, I’m right near Newark and it feels like early June.

It’s depressing, is what it is. Temperature consistency is better than constant wild swings between cold and warm in the winter. Swinging between something like -5 and +10 is just ridiculous in the winter. Yes, there are always warmups, it’s more the intensity and consistency that makes it so obnoxious. This is not the southeast, historically winters here are cold, even all of New Jersey. Our records are all below zero. It feels like we’re shifting toward a southeast climate with the ridge intensifying and moving north so often and so powerfully. This is probably slightly exaggerative but it feels like 14 and 15 were a “last hurrah” of real, long duration proper winters for this area. I would be overjoyed to see it again but I’m not betting on it anytime soon. Very happy we had this January but even that had warmups right after the snowfall that offset the winter vibe too much. I wonder if at some point in the next hundred to two hundred years we’ll see a temporary cold shift like a weak Younger Dryas from Greenland freshwater melt further weakening the AMOC. Definitely won’t be anything near as sharp as the YD because the Laurentide had far more meltwater than Greenland, but I’d be surprised if there isn’t a relatively brief anomalous cold period upcoming before we rocket headlong into +3 to +4C. Too bad it’s almost certainly to be after our lifetimes, if at all.

The way I interpret this Snowman is that it’s a pattern conducive to snow. Nothing more, nothing less. Of course that doesn’t mean a snowstorm here is likely or will happen by any means; just that it could. It’s good enough for me.