Volcanic Winter

Fair, I’m tempering my expectations back down to nothing. In the absence of a better air mass I feel like the storm would need an absolutely textbook track to get snow to me right now. Maybe up by EWR at work I’ll see something. Of course a long way to go, etc. Happy to have something to watch and glad someone is probably getting a significant snowstorm. If I get nothing, I’m feeling good about my chances going forward at least.

0z gonna be 3 feet in Maine. Guys remember the GFS with 1/29/22? Up until the last second I remember it showing a total miss for basically everyone while the Euro held swerve. In the NE thread they were talking about the lack of consistency right now with it and to basically discount it until it begins to show less extreme run to run volatility, which I agree with personally based on what we're seeing.

With the volatility already baked into this month and the massive changes made to the system the past 48 hours I wouldn’t expect to start seeing a more coherent and well supported outcome until the back end of the weekend at least.

That’s my dream, I’m not a selfish weenie. I want everyone in on the fun. Give me a classic megalopolis bomb any day.

Exactly. This is just gravy at this point, I don’t normally ‘expect’ snow until Jan. If I can work a decent storm down by me or even up where I work, I’ll take that happily as a nice pre-season bonus.

I’m gonna let the weenie flag fly for the 16th and go all in on hoping for some decent snow down by the coast. Gotta see continued trend toward a solution that works for all of us, and I def see some potential there for a fun event. This weekend I’ll be happy if you guys catch some good flakes.

What, a model spread of +3 to -6 is totally normal and definitely not hilarious.

@EasternLI about to get arrested for aggravated assault on the SPV. I’ll bail you out brother.

A 50/50 low forces a slower transit of the target storm? Is that the gist of that? That wasn’t a term I was familiar with prior to coming here.

Being very tongue in cheek. It’s exciting but I can see why / how this is probably an unlikely solution at this point. At least it looks like a Miller B now? Crazy the evolution of this thing past two days.

It’s hanging on my fridge already.

Too late, I’m all in. Choo choo baby. Hear that? Hype train is right on schedule.

I made this post over in the NYC thread and wanted to share it here in case anyone finds this interesting, especially those with a good understanding of atmospheric physics may gleam something from this WRT current events: I’m all aboard Hunga Tonga having a hand in some of these unusual dynamics and volatility. I just saw this paper last night and finished reading through it, it appears initial observations underestimated the SO2 flux rather significantly (though still a lot less than Pinatubo). However, the enormous instantaneous injection of water vapor remains a major variable. Just wanted to share the paper for anyone who may be interested. It’s dense and technical but is extremely informative and touches on HTHH’s substantial atmospheric and potentially climatological impact: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00618-z

Yeah I only got about 5 inches down by me but where I work got 18. My first snowstorm with my new WRX though with fresh Blizzaks on it, so I had fun pulling up to my unplowed lot at work and driving over the fresh snow like it’s pavement.

Yeah dude, we scored. At one point my area was a potential jackpot zone, but it just didn’t explode fast enough and it became more of a LI / NE storm. Like I said, was still a wonderful event. I got skunked in 2/1/21 whereas where I work got 18 inches. And 20 was a turd of a winter, so it was nice to see some real snow again.

16 inches. Perfect really, all things considered. Remember all the uncertainty and with the GFS shunting it out south and East with barely a dusting for anyone? Nail biter through and through.

1/29 was a fun storm with a lot of hype and excitement around it. Def enjoyed in Toms River area. Also was notably a very cold storm, at the peak in the early AM we were 22F. Perfect.

Dude I was here for the NAM gigaweenie maps, it was hilarious. At one point it had me over like 40-50 inches.

I think the best takeaway right now is from Bluewave in that such a strong -AO in Dec may correlate with recurrent blocking in JFM. Of course we all want a big one by the end of Dec, but if it doesn’t materialize at least we can hope for better chances going forward. Last Jan was nice and good for me as a cold lover but I remember we had a crazy progressive pattern that just didn’t yield a lot of excitement until 1/29, and that didn’t even pan out for a lot of us. Was lucky to be coastal for that event but of course it was mostly a NE storm. I am definitely feeling better about our winter prospects this year. Feels like it’s been too long since our last KU type storm, and I’m really hoping we score at least one whether it’s the end of Dec or the end of Feb.

I’m all aboard Hunga Tonga having a hand in some of these unusual dynamics and volatility. I just saw this paper last night and finished reading through it, it appears initial observations underestimated the SO2 flux rather significantly (though still a lot less than Pinatubo). However, the enormous instantaneous injection of water vapor remains a major variable. Just wanted to share the paper for anyone who may be interested. It’s dense and technical but is extremely informative and touches on HTHH’s substantial atmospheric and potentially climatological impact: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00618-z

Not expecting to see a flake, except maybe one or two at work. But I’m very happy we appear to be in a much better position than a few days ago. Keep the faith, hoping we pull a white rabbit out of a beanie the rest of the month.

GFS with the Dec 23rd gigastorm . At least it's better than showing a torch lol.

Yeah. I genuinely don’t have any complaints given my latitude. We can do very well.