Volcanic Winter

What do you call it when you feel alive and refreshed in the cold and depressed and unhappy in unseasonable warmth? Should probably see a doctor about that . And my wife is the exact diametric opposite of me, so naturally we’re perfect for each other. Though she does enjoy the winter hiking we do, I have to keep her bundled up like a freshly hatched chicken.

My good GTX shell down parka is coming out for three days. Hoping it’s not the only time I need it this winter.

Nice chilly rain coming down by EWR. Really sets the Christmas mood . Some of the western M/A folks are reporting a nice thump of snow. Some have a couple inches already. Incredibly jelly.

Forky I’ll never forget your Jan 6th (I think?) call last year with the highly uncertain system. Lots of back in forth in the thread then you randomly popped in and quipped “enjoy the snow,” and snow it did. Think I got a very respectable 5-6 inches out of that. Bookended by 1/29 getting 16. Was a nice Jan for me.

It’s interesting because Dec was well set up minus the lack of snow; all that separated us from decent snowfall was trough placement being too far west. Likely without the insane NA SST’s we’d be celebrating an epic Dec and ready to write off the warm start to Jan, no? Just seems like Dec was more of a near miss considering all factors, but I certainly understand if the medium range prognostication is unfavorable. Really trying my best to retain some positivity. We’re due for some favorable luck to break our way for a change.

That’s very disheartening, 19/20 was the worst winter I can remember of recent years for me. All I remember of that one was near constant 50 degrees and rain. Yuck. Are we really seeing indications of a repeat of that right now, or are we just down on our luck? Dec at least was rather cold, are we really going to permanently reverse on that even considering blocking tends to be recurrent once it happens the first time? Any long range hints at the moment aren’t good, or? Then again, rather burnt out on day 11-15 cold signals… Lose / lose.

Was just going to ask how things are looking after the torchy start to Jan, if there’s any favorable hints appearing. Been exceedingly busy with work right before Xmas and haven’t had much time to look at things. Really hoping January’s opening pattern is a temporary blip.

I’m not happy unless my underwear freezes solid after 5 minutes outdoors.

Saying “it was warmer in the past” isn’t an argument nor is it a counter to the fact that CO2 emissions are explosively accelerating warming of this planet right now in the present. The climate ebbs and flows naturally over long periods of time in lockstep with, yes, the PPM of CO2 in the atmosphere. Except this change occurs over thousands to millions of years, with more abrupt changes following catastrophic global events like bolide impacts or flood basalt eruptions, the latter which still takes thousands of years to cause dramatic change. An example of the latter is the Permian mass extinction where the planet was very nearly sterilized as oceans exceeded 40C following eruption of the Siberian Traps, one of the largest continental flood basalt eruptions known. We are mimicking that sort of CO2 release, except on a much shorter timescale. The planet naturally switches between several states of higher and lower CO2 levels and temperature due to various feedback mechanisms. We are interfering with and essentially hijacking it at an unprecedented short term timescale It actually speaks to the fact that you are naive to the physics involved, or you wouldn’t think bringing up paleoclimate conditions is a relevant argument. Did you know the earth in the Hadean was so warm it was molten? Fun to think about, but it has nothing to do with AGW.

Be nice to snag something before Tanuary. .. I mean January*

Here you go man:

Preparing for this to be the only snow I see for a while:

(Deleted my original reply bc I wanted my quote to show his name in the tweet, lol)

Yeah, the 80’s seem to be an interesting period within the context of the modern era from a temperature perspective. Is there anything you (or Don, or anyone of course) could add about the reasoning for the semi-frequent arctic intrusions and “true cold” during this decade? Anything meteorologically speaking that can be pointed to as a cause or mechanism, perhaps outside the obvious? Very interested. Thanks. On a side note, Bluewave - what is your profession man? I don’t mean to ask personal questions but I’m very curious, if you’re willing to divulge. You’re not a meteorologist? You have a serious wealth of knowledge and climatological analytical skill; just an extremely well informed non-expert / enthusiast? Another type of scientist perhaps?

No, it’s not. “True cold,” or rather just cold with historical precedent in our latitude would feel intolerable to the masses after our continual winter torches and shortening cold season. I think about this stuff often (both historical climate shifts as well as change in geologic timescales), and it’s really interesting stuff. Especially how perceptions change over time; imagine tomorrow’s high were to be 8 degrees. People would be freaking out and assume it’s unprecedented, not that it was ever wholly common per se, of course.

Can we take a mulligan on this one?

I’ll take my lumps if we don’t see snow for a while, but I will literally get down on all fours and beg to avoid a protracted torch. A couple days of 50+ yeah, of course that’s unavoidable. At the very least, let’s stay in the game please.

It’s interesting to me how recent cold outbreaks the past several winters have the cold predominantly spilling into the plains and moderating east. I suspect that’s part of why we haven’t even approached record setting BN temps in a long while, though I know the metro area record lows will probably never be broken. At least in NJ I know some days go as low as -30 which, being honest, I absolutely can’t even fathom ever happening again. The question I have is if we see a set up again similar to say 1989 where the axis of arctic cold is centered squarely on the east, is it still possible for us to reach low single digits or negative degrees? Will we ever see another high max barely reaching double digits or is this a feature of the past?

It just appears that the storm track set up shop to our west, with the east end of the trough being too far west. IMHO I believe we’ve been over thinking this a bit. We had the ingredients but the trough axis wasn’t lined up properly for us to snow because the storm track is supporting cutters instead of coastals. And I think that ties into what’s been discussed about the 50/50 ridge from the extra warm SST’s. Simplest explanation is that pushed back on the trough and messed up the storm track for us keeping us on the torch side.

Thanks for highlighting the evolution and refinement of knowledge. Take a look at the period before and during the 1970's.

Canada is wonderful, go for it!

As someone mentioned, the GFS is a totally different storm evolution. That’s all or nothing. I’m most interested in seeing if the GFS continues as such an extreme outlier; would certainly keep things spicy. Seriously though, this is WAY better than last Dec even if it ends in disappointment. I’ll take the seasonable cold and trackable threats to rainy torch city any day. The extreme -PNA was soul crushing last year. Already ahead IMO.

Always appreciate your summaries, Don.

You’re worried, dude. So am I, for the record.

Trend wasn’t the right word, but a step toward a more inland track.