Volcanic Winter

This is potentially big enough to influence the climate for a year or two. We need more information (amount of SO2 released, tephra / DRE volume, and confirmation on how high the plume went to confirm stratospheric injection of those particulates), but it's looking like this has the potential to be a VEI-6 around the size of Pinatubo based on the discussions of several volcanologists/geologists that I follow, which caused a cold climate anomaly for 1992 (and also decreased SST's a bit). Edit: Looks like it was rated VEI-5, so right around just big enough to influence the climate but probably not to the extent of Pinatubo unless it was very high in SO2. I'm not an expert but I believe volcanic climate forcings are usually restricted to the hemisphere of the eruption outside of the really truly massive ones, so I'm not sure if we'll see a global anomaly or centered on the southern hemisphere. This is fascinating however and completely came out of nowhere. Very, very large and extremely powerful eruption with little to suggest a caldera forming event was in the pipeline before it happened. The smaller phreatomagmatic / phreatoplinian eruptions were impressive, but this was just another level with the pressure wave circling the globe, the loud explosive crack being heard at great distances a la Krakatau, and the tsunami generation. Edit: Here's an incredible summary https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/tonga-volcano-massive-eruption-explosion-stratosphere-usa-tsunami-shockwave-fa/

Some of the professionals I follow are still saying it’s too early to have any real refined forecast here. Looking at the model spread and unusual / complicated set up, I really think we need to wait until tonight / tomorrow before thinking this one is figured out. Of course it’s not looking likely for a major coastal event, but I absolutely don’t think there should be much certainty at this point in time. Let’s see how today evolves for starters, and if it just becomes more and more certain that this is a 100% miss for NYC / coastal suburbs, we’ll for sure have more opportunities coming up. I’m still riding the high of the tremendous change to our fortunes after that disastrous torch of a December (and the thinking on Jan being similar with the record - PNA persisting). We’ve come a long way to even be in this position tracking something after two solid snowstorms in the books for the coast (and south of course).

Couldn’t have been more depressed reading the Dec thread. A member posted the table showing winters where NYC fails to record a few inches of snow in Dec and then we basically gets bagels the rest of the winter. Now look where are. Two solid storms in the books, cold and a favorable pattern, with multiple events potentially on the horizon.

17 just south and west of Newark here, now. The bite of the wind is definitely noticeable, but having a good down parka makes all the difference. Wonder how this 24 hour period would go if we maintained more snowcover.

People here I would think are aware of the highly speculative to straight tea leaf nature of model maps this far out. Doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be posted and discussed IMO. That’s what people discuss here anyway, the current trends from the latest model runs. The maps are just a visualization of that. Granted people have to remember not to put too much faith into them, but I would think users here know that.

Not me, give me all the cold and snow. 10F or so is exhilarating. Beyond that, just have to dress (layer) appropriately and wear something with down insulation unless you're being active.

2010/2011 and 2014/2015 are two of the only winters I can recall in my adult life where we truly had snow persistence on the ground throughout the winter, where fallen snow isn't immediately melted within a few days. I recall that happening more as a kid in the 90's and early 2000's (grew up in central NJ). Pretty excited for the potential here for the remainder of Jan. Everything looks like it's coming together in a way that seemed fantasylandish back in Dec. Would love for another nice storm or two + enough cold to keep it on the ground.