Volcanic Winter

@LibertyBell Right around 6 inches. However we were forecast to score decently in the first southern track storm and we got way less than what was forecasted even day of. The cutoff was sharper than anticipated, and the dry air to the north a bigger factor. The soundings were so horrid, I recall. The second storm we were forecasted to hopefully be in heavy banding, but watching the radar loop it just didn’t pan out for us, whereas you guys up north really cashed in. Not crying, I’m happy to have even something this season so far. December had me totally dispirited and apathetic.

Tough to get excited about the Thursday event, I don’t feel like rain to snow frontal passage events really ever play out all that great, and the official forecasts for this aren’t inspiring much joy. Would love to be surprised. Regardless, let that push through and let’s see how the models do afterwards, especially the short range. If there’s any hope at all for even a minor event, we’ll probably know tomorrow. It’s a shame because the ACY storm grossly underperformed where I am at the western inland section of Toms River (dry air and virga, sharper cutoff than they were forecasting right up until it began), and our quick hitter coastal grazer also underperformed where we were expected to see potentially the highest totals, and you folks near NYC overperformed (glad about that!). We only got about 4.5 inches whereas some of you had around 8, which is fantastic. Such a shame to waste a solid pattern, but winter definitely isn’t over and with the wonky way things have played out thus far, maybe we get lucky in Feb even in a milder set up. I guess we’ll see.

I honestly think the answer here is, "wait and be patient." With the amount of variation + spread of the models right now for Saturday they're clearly having trouble resolving the outcome, and this just might be a situation where there won't be a clear solution for another couple days or so. Very possible that we get nothing, but since we literally have no ability to control what happens, the answer here is just to sit tight for a bit and see how this plays out as we get closer, and then hope the short range models maybe lock into something interesting. Yeah, starting to smell a bit like disappointment, but the complexity and variation to me suggests no clear solution yet, IE we wait. I got shafted on the ACY storm here in Toms River and we underperformed slightly on the fast moving coastal right after (where most of you guys near NYC overperformed), so I'm really hoping this gets its act together. Feels like the month is flying by.

Yup, I’ve since saw that but hadn’t heard at the time I made my comment. Much too low to have any impacts, though the blast itself was remarkable.

Also, what is a “KU” storm? Through context I gather it’s a historic or near historic snowstorm with feet of snowfall. But I can’t find a definition and I’ve seen the term used here frequently. I’m a long time lurker that finally made an account.

@bluewave What is the website used to pull temperature data in the form of those tables? I’d like to explore that with different parameters. Thanks!

Well, other large climate altering eruptions have caused cold temperature anomalies and heavy precipitation throughout North America and Europe. It’s highly dependent on many factors, but there’s no assurance here that such an event will be mild in the mid latitudes (and that’s just going off recorded history). I do think it’s more likely whatever occurs from this is restricted to the Southern Hemisphere, or at least is strongest felt in the Southern Hemisphere. But I’m not 100% on that. Edit: Not specific to winter, just for the year overall. I think the worst of “volcanic winters” is usually during summer. But I’ve read plenty about very cold winters following large eruptions, unless those winters were going to be cold regardless of the eruption? Tallis you know more than me so feel free to expand. Can’t believe we’re even talking about this honestly.

Regardless I still can’t believe I woke up yesterday to news of an eruption that may be around the size of Pinatubo, out of nowhere. Leads more credence IMHO to another transient tropical blast being behind the mystery eruption of 1808/9 and perhaps other unknown climate altering eruptions throughout history.

Tallis, I recognize you from Volcanocafe! Nice to see you here man. And yes, this eruption did appear to be large enough to enact measurable climate forcings but we need more data on the overall volume and amount of SO2 injection. Also, outside of very, very large eruptions (7+?), aren’t the climate forcings from large plinian eruptions usually restricted to the hemisphere they occurred in (aka Southern)?

This is potentially big enough to influence the climate for a year or two. We need more information (amount of SO2 released, tephra / DRE volume, and confirmation on how high the plume went to confirm stratospheric injection of those particulates), but it's looking like this has the potential to be a VEI-6 around the size of Pinatubo based on the discussions of several volcanologists/geologists that I follow, which caused a cold climate anomaly for 1992 (and also decreased SST's a bit). Edit: Looks like it was rated VEI-5, so right around just big enough to influence the climate but probably not to the extent of Pinatubo unless it was very high in SO2. I'm not an expert but I believe volcanic climate forcings are usually restricted to the hemisphere of the eruption outside of the really truly massive ones, so I'm not sure if we'll see a global anomaly or centered on the southern hemisphere. This is fascinating however and completely came out of nowhere. Very, very large and extremely powerful eruption with little to suggest a caldera forming event was in the pipeline before it happened. The smaller phreatomagmatic / phreatoplinian eruptions were impressive, but this was just another level with the pressure wave circling the globe, the loud explosive crack being heard at great distances a la Krakatau, and the tsunami generation. Edit: Here's an incredible summary https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/tonga-volcano-massive-eruption-explosion-stratosphere-usa-tsunami-shockwave-fa/

Some of the professionals I follow are still saying it’s too early to have any real refined forecast here. Looking at the model spread and unusual / complicated set up, I really think we need to wait until tonight / tomorrow before thinking this one is figured out. Of course it’s not looking likely for a major coastal event, but I absolutely don’t think there should be much certainty at this point in time. Let’s see how today evolves for starters, and if it just becomes more and more certain that this is a 100% miss for NYC / coastal suburbs, we’ll for sure have more opportunities coming up. I’m still riding the high of the tremendous change to our fortunes after that disastrous torch of a December (and the thinking on Jan being similar with the record - PNA persisting). We’ve come a long way to even be in this position tracking something after two solid snowstorms in the books for the coast (and south of course).

Couldn’t have been more depressed reading the Dec thread. A member posted the table showing winters where NYC fails to record a few inches of snow in Dec and then we basically gets bagels the rest of the winter. Now look where are. Two solid storms in the books, cold and a favorable pattern, with multiple events potentially on the horizon.

17 just south and west of Newark here, now. The bite of the wind is definitely noticeable, but having a good down parka makes all the difference. Wonder how this 24 hour period would go if we maintained more snowcover.

People here I would think are aware of the highly speculative to straight tea leaf nature of model maps this far out. Doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be posted and discussed IMO. That’s what people discuss here anyway, the current trends from the latest model runs. The maps are just a visualization of that. Granted people have to remember not to put too much faith into them, but I would think users here know that.

Not me, give me all the cold and snow. 10F or so is exhilarating. Beyond that, just have to dress (layer) appropriately and wear something with down insulation unless you're being active.

2010/2011 and 2014/2015 are two of the only winters I can recall in my adult life where we truly had snow persistence on the ground throughout the winter, where fallen snow isn't immediately melted within a few days. I recall that happening more as a kid in the 90's and early 2000's (grew up in central NJ). Pretty excited for the potential here for the remainder of Jan. Everything looks like it's coming together in a way that seemed fantasylandish back in Dec. Would love for another nice storm or two + enough cold to keep it on the ground.