Volcanic Winter

Yeah, we’ve only had like two winters in the past decade I’ve lived in inland TR where snow seemed to fall regularly and not melt instantly. Of course it doesn’t happen often, but it can happen which is the main point. I think 2013 and 2014 were the winters I’m thinking of. Nothing feels more like a classic, beautiful winter than having persistent snow cover. Of course this is different for you guys north and west, but I’m near sea level and not too far from the coast so it’s a much bigger ask. Still, when it does happen, *chef’s kiss.* I also have vivid memories of 2009 where I lived in a house in Long Branch while going to school, and getting absolutely BURIED in a December storm. December blizzards feel impossible lately, you know? And then briefly lived in North Brunswick with my future wife through Dec 26 2010 and the subsequent massive storms that winter brought. Lot of these are backloaded in my memory, recently it seems we’ve more had isolated big events but little consistency. I know it’s unlikely and growing ever more difficult, but I’m so ready for a wall to wall classic winter.

I know and use a lot of the common websites for models and stuff like NOAA for teleconnections and MJO, but what website can I use if I want to compare current temperatures to those of a year range I set? Like if I wanted to arbitrarily compare current BN temperatures to an aggregate for late September but from 1858-1940 let’s say, just for the sake of noting the difference between then and now. I think I’ve seen Bluewave post data like this and would greatly appreciate being pointed towards any sites I could use for this. I love exploring historical temp and weather data. Thanks guys. edit: I think I’ve seen one that’s a map of CONUS with temp anomalies shaded for a given year range relative to current. That would be super helpful, but also that lists this data numerically. Also any sites that show just plain historical temperature data for different sites, though would prefer one that goes back as far as modern record keeping (think 1850’s?). I also want to take a look at temperature data for years of known volcanic aerosol injections, there are a few more from lesser known mid range eruptions than just the major ones (Pinatubo, Krakatoa, etc). Sorry if I’m asking a few different things but I feel like one or two websites will probably knock this out for me. Thanks! edit 2: If anyone is curious, there were also large SO2 / volcanic aerosol injections in the years 1982 (El Chicón), 1963 (Gunung Agung), 1932-1933 (Cerro Azul and Kharimkotan, 1912 (Novarupta, a big one, and 1902 (Santa Maria, also a very large one). Going to take a look at the summer and winters of those years and the couple following them. Should be interesting if nothing else.

How much does the pressure difference add to the power of the storm? So I gather that's what a "baroclinic zone" is? Hard for me to quantify just how large that effect would be in this situation for example. Does the NHC factor that into the wind rating for Ian, or is it just sort of an additional influence that adds some additional power to the perceived surface winds? Thanks to anyone, trying to wrap my head around this though I understand how a pressure gradient generates wind.

Blocking the rain, of course.

Hope the rain falls for those who need it! Loving the cool air, finally. Between Fiona and now 98L boy has ATL hurricane season ‘22 quickly resurrected itself. Potential Charley like track in there amongst the model noise? Long way off, interesting either way. Could be a bad one for the Gulf on a different track.

No place for feelings in science, but I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting fall/winter one way or another. With the strong SH stratospheric cooling and the climate system’s tendency toward balance, maybe we get some stratospheric warming up here and a weakened PV (there was some correlation shown in an article linked a ways back, was interesting if nothing else). Or maybe the extra water vapor broadly keeps things slightly warmer. In other threads here I saw some speculation about a -NAO Dec with a potential fast start to winter (perhaps front loaded), but I remember last Dec originally being forecasted cold and, yeah big nope. Prob smarter to always assume we’ll be in shorts and flip flops Xmas day lol. One things for sure, after this consistently hot summer I’m well prepared to enjoy some cool crisp air, so I’m looking forward to the cold front and cooldown however long it lasts. Great hiking weather and my favorite time of year to be outside.

47 for me as well this morning. Ocean Co NJ. Starting to get me excited for late fall and winter. Then I realized it’s probably gonna be 90 next week. Ah well taking what I can get. Beautiful morning. Crisp and refreshing.

I’m in NJ but am absolutely ready for a cooler / colder winter. Last January felt like a tease. The 1/29 event was also one of the coldest snowstorms I can remember in my location a little inland from the Jersey shoreline (about 12 miles). We were in the lower to mid 20’s during snowfall which is few and far between for my location during big events as we more frequently straddle the freezing line. I have a particular interest in geology and volcanology (sure my username gives that away) but specifically how it relates to climatology, as large volcanic events throughout history have caused major climate disruptions. Especially a couple years after Tambora in 1815, after Laki in the 1780’s, Krakatau in the 1880’s, and most recently Pinatubo in 1991 (I’ve read its effects beyond cooling caused anomalous disruption to the jet streams and may have had a hand in the 1993 superstorm). Now we have HTHH which was anomalous as far as large explosive eruptions go as there was little sulphur flux (the main vehicle of volcanic cooling) but tons of water vapor. I saw the article about southern stratospheric cooling and its possible correlative link to NH stratospheric warming, though it’s comparitive years were not due to volcanic effects. Color me intrigued for this winter. I hope it’s a cold and productive one for all of us.

It’s been a while since we’ve had a Great Atlantic Hurricane or LI Express type powerful storm chug up the coast right in the pocket offshore NJ. What was the last major storm like that in the area, Bob despite being further east? I’m struggling to recall other recent storms with similar tracks and decent intensity. Would be “fun” to track and experience, but would certainly do a lot of damage nowadays. And wasn’t there a powerful fast moving potential ~ cat 4 that barreled right up along the western border of NJ in the early 1800’s? Remember reading about that one. Wonder if modern SST’s would modulate the likelihood of another event like that. IIRC it was able to retain such intensity due to unusually fast forward speed. Sandy was so unusual in how a lot of us were in the right front quadrant for a change.

Good, I’ve had enough 90+ for one year. Time to embrace beautiful fall weather where I can go outside without feeling like I’m walking through boiling soup.

No worries! Glad you saw it, excited to read through.

What were the stats on Feb ‘15 in the area? How BN was it?

Guys I’m not fully caught up in this thread, but I wanted to share this link: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ Again referencing the Hunga Tonga eruption, they’re talking about a significant stratospheric cooling event underway in the Southern Hemisphere. They’re saying that correlative history suggests this may cause stratospheric warming in the northern hemisphere along with negative NAO states and below normal surface anomalies in our neck of the woods. Check it out, interesting if nothing else.

If my Tempest is accurate, we’re clocking in at .48 down here in Toms River with rain that’s definitely tapering off. Good bit less than I was hoping for if there’s to be no or little further development. Was still raining hard when I left work a little while ago just outside EWR.

Heavier bands heading ENE at the moment through NJ.

Here in Ocean County, NJ we were on the lucky side with precipitation this August compared to what I’m seeing for some of you. However, most of this was from a couple pop up soakers that trained over the area; dumb luck. July was 1.32 inches. Here’s to hoping this system pans out.

Okay guys, now this is interesting: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ With respect to the massive stratospheric injection of water vapor by the Hunga Tonga eruption (~10% of the total that resides in the stratosphere normally, a huge quantity), we’ve been hearing that the greenhouse gas may produce a small surface warming anomaly. This stands counter to the ‘normal’ effects on the climate from large scale explosive volcanism, as typically sulphur and ash particulates are responsible for measurable surface cooling as is what happened after Pinatubo 1991 for a couple years. But we know HTHH was very sulphur poor (1/40th the loading of Pinatubo). However, I raised the question in the August thread about how this disruption to the stratosphere may impact the various oscillations as we head into northern hemispheric winter. This article finds correlation between the observed current stratospheric cooling in the Southern Hemisphere resulting from HTHH (check it out, it’s a MASSIVE anomaly right now) and northern hemispheric stratospheric warming. What happens when we have stratospheric warming in winter? Negative NAO leading to BN surface temps and improved storm tracks. This is correlative conjecture in looking at past instances of stratospheric cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, but it’s very interesting and cuts right to the heart of what I’ve been asking and speculating about. Thought you guys might find this interesting. Lock it in? SSW epic neg NAO 60 inch NYC snowstorms? Yes please. Of course this is speculation, and we’re more or less going to be learning in real time what its impacts will be, if any at all (though finding it unlikely to be nil), for our northern hemispheric winter.

There are ancient fault lines deep underground along the eastern seaboard from when we were stapled into Pangea. Every so often there’s a minor slippage of the otherwise dead faults and you get small intraplate quakes. There’s areas where very large intraplate quakes can happen but I don’t believe our area is at risk for that. Check out the 1811 New Madrid magnitude 7.1-8.1 earthquakes that occurred near the southern tip of Missouri. Massive, major quakes in an unusual location. Ancient fault from millions of years ago. Also interesting, the Appalachians were the Mesozoic Himalayas and were once every bit as tall if not taller, now of course little more than eroded remnant hills.

What caused 2010 to be so anomalously hot? What was the set up? Always when you post data, 2010 sticks out like a sore thumb. Bonkers.

You could say it was, *takes off glasses* Allsnow.

.46 inches at my home in Toms River. Not bad, I’ll take it. Feels like more now at work in Union.

This is why I’ve raised the question several times, but not wanting to be too forceful about inserting it unnaturally into the discussion here. The truth is volcanic climate disturbances are difficult to pinpoint already with respect to the normal cooling of a large, sulfur laden eruption. HTHH was something different with its tremendous water vapor greenhouse gas injection. A first in history. While a slight broad surface warming is now expected, I’m most interested in how this could be influencing the dynamics of the various oscillations and monsoons. Pinatubo caused jet stream disturbances along with lots of other atmospheric phenomena. But Pinatubo was a much more typical large explosive (magmatic) eruption. This was largely phreatomagmatic and heavily skewed toward a massive injection of water vapor with less ash and sulfur. I suspect this will be better determined in retrospect than in real time, what if any effect is had.

Yeah, it’s sort of uncharted territory. Many eruptions eject water (Pinatubo notwithstanding), but what HTHH put up there is unprecedented. Basic physics suggest some degree of warming in the absence of the volcanic particulates that normally cause cooling at large quantities. I’m just wondering how it may impact, influence, or otherwise “force” the overall patterns into one direction or another. I guess that’s not something we generally know, owing to the rarity of this type of event. Volcanic Winters are already uncommon, though not exactly rare (in recent times at least 1-2 per century, sometimes quite a few more including smaller magnitude events). A “Volcanic Summer” is entirely uncharted territory, outside of ancient flood basalt eruptions that are orders of magnitude larger than anything in historic times that contribute to runaway warming from CO2 over hundreds of thousands of years (such as the Permian Mass Extinction / Siberian Traps). That’s something else entirely though. It’s intriguing though, at least for me (as the forum’s resident volcanophile with a healthy interest in their potential climate impacts).

It’s really fascinating how locked in some patterns have become since 2016. Bluewave, do you think we’ll see the return of the “cold November warm to very warm December?” I’m not reviewing any data at the moment but my recollection is that we’ve had several cool to cold Novembers in that timeframe, and I remember several forecasters going all in on a very cold December last year after the cool Nov only to be busted by incredible Dec warmth. Again. I have to go back to Hunga Tonga for a second, because it’s the big variable that’s changed since last year. We now know it injected about 10% of the total water vapor that resides in the stratosphere up there in an instant (without the accompany sulphur flux which would counterbalance that and normally cause cooling at this size), and I’m wondering what kinds of influence that may have on the normal ebb and flow of the various oscillations that make up our weather patterns. Of course, water vapor is a greenhouse gas, but I don’t know enough of the physics here to offer anything other than “should warm things up a bit, no?” IE what I’m asking is basically, do we think this could influence the likelihood of blocking? Or have any forcings on the EPO or PNA, etc? We know Pinatubo affected the jets after 1991 but that was largely from sulphur loading and other particulates that were largely underrepresented in the Hunga Tonga eruption despite its size (all things considered from a climatological perspective this is a unique event in recorded history with the largest observed influx of water vapor at one time into the stratosphere). It also may be influencing some of the things we’re seeing this summer, and I can’t wait to read any retrospective analyses about it. Aside from all that, I would give anything to get another epic winter of years past, and just my personal gut feeling is that those are quickly becoming extinct. I hope I’m wrong.

So how much snow is that? With the sun beginning to angle down does that mean this could overperform?