Volcanic Winter

Warmth appears to be overperforming a bit at my two locations. 65 at work in Hillside and 65 at my house in TR.

Absolutely, not every specific event is tied to it and and extreme, variable weather always occurred. Was just making a general point not specific to this winter per se. As someone who enjoys the cold, I simply try to cherish each cold day that we get. Or perhaps, I should’ve just been born during the LIA. People were a bit stinkier back then but I’d be in my winter glory nonetheless.

Well, of course we always have warm days in winter here. The point was (and was verified by a chart posted a couple pages back) that the number of 60 degree days in winter here is steadily increasing as the overall climate system warms.

Doesn’t feel like winter, don’t like it. Though I suppose I should get used to it as these kinds of days will only become more and more common in winter here. IMO don’t take the cold for granted. Eventually we’ll be lucky to drop below freezing.

If the early March cold verifies this will have been quite a seesaw winter of sustained warmth -> cold -> warmth -> cold. Especially with the high departures both warm and then cold in Dec and Jan, are we in historically significant territory for the intensity of the flip flopping? Looks like it’s happening yet one more time with the warmth flipping back to more intense cold (if things play out as modeled). I know we often have a seesaw effect here in winter, but I don’t quite remember one this pronounced. Especially with a -3.5ish degree departure in January.

Nemo, Juno, and Jonas sounds like the names of a new boy band. Their number one single, “13 Inches of Love” off the hit album, ‘The Snowman and the Torch’.

Here’s my professional forecast: We’re gonna get some cold, then some warmth, then some colder warmth and warmer cold. We’ll get a bit of rain, a windy day or two, and possibly a couple flakes. Eventually it’ll get warmer and then sunnier and more rain and wind, less flakes as the months move on. Beat that forecast, hotshots!

Fair, everyone feels differently as has their own personal preferences. I should be living somewhere colder. I hate heat and humidity and prefer hiking in snow to hiking in green, flowers, and pollen.

But I absolutely loathe torching in Jan or Feb (Dec I suppose I’m already used to) so this month is painful for me. All it does is remind me of where things are heading with current AGW, and it reminds me how our area is one of the fastest warming places in winter in the country. Tough to appreciate nice days when I think about what it represents.

I can’t complain down where I live (inland TR). Had a very cold January with more single digits lows than I can recall the past several years, and we did very well with snow down here. I have more snow at my house than I received at work in Union Co. Living where I do I trade the more consistent snowfall for a chance to be pretty prime time for a nor’easter with the right track and with cold air in place. Paid off this winter. Despite the cold, the snow didn’t hang around as much as it did in 13 and 14. Those winters had the most snowpack I can recall at my house. Lived in North Brunswick for the mighty Boxing Day Storm and subsequent amazing winter.

Nothing but mood flakes down here in Ocean Co. Snowing all day with about an hour of sleet mixed in, only accumulated on grass early this morning to about half an inch then promptly melted. Temps went up to 36* then back to 33 here now. Pumped you all made out like bandits up north; I certainly can’t complain down here after 1/29 getting 16-18”. Here’s to hoping we see a few flakes in March.

Enjoy your snow, man!

Sleeting right now, inland Toms River (10 miles in from coast). 35* Seems the axis shifted further NW where originally we were more in the bullseye again. I’ll be very happy with literally anything that accumulates; an inch is fine.

I scored mightily on 1/29 here in Ocean Co NJ, but the warmup and protracted frontal stall rain event absolutely wrecked my snowpack. We could’ve held onto it for another week for sure but it just wasn’t to be. I liked the cold in January and we had some decent snow events, but it wasn’t equitable for everyone and it’s looking like that was but a brief reprieve in an overall crappy winter. I do get people liking warmth, but still in winter it’s hard for me to cheer it on. It does nothing but remind me of the path we’re on in an acutely warming planet. Who knows how much longer winter will even be winter here, so it’s tough for me to appreciate any warmth Dec through early March. It just reminds me of what lies ahead. I appreciate the cold while we can still get it, with that said my proclivities are for cold anyway and I hate being hot and sweaty. There is absolutely nothing better than hiking in winter through snow covered hills and forests.

Yeah, would have to see some big improvements today or we’ll be lucky to get an inch or two and call it a day. With how things are looking the rest of the month; yeah, bit of a downer.

Don’t worry the NAM will come through and show 70 inches soon while the GFS swings the storm out to Iceland and the Euro cuts it inland.

And NJ shore down through Ocean County. We mirror NYC weather (with respect to nor’easters) more often than Philly, with the exception of a N/S snow/rain transition line.

Obviously the current modeling is not exact metaphysical certitude at this point. It will continue to vary with each run this far out. The point is that there’s a nice signal on a few models with some of them shifting closer to something fun here. Let’s have some fun with this while we can.

RGEM so far

Sure, that makes good sense. It’s probably those notable events I followed more closely that are sticking out in my memory.

I definitely remember storms where the models locked in a good ways out and never wavered. Obviously totals change, but just having a solid read on the dynamics and overall threat.

The GFS did good in picking up the 1/29 storm, like a week out - then completely lost it while the Euro found it.

I thought that was QPF at first . Lock it in?

When Doorman posts charts in a whimsical tone, I know there’s hope. Not looking like tons is needed to make this more exciting. For now cautious optimism is the name of the game. Expectations set at zero but willing to be pleasantly surprised.

It’s still very much a monumental eruption that will move volcanology forward. It was also a one in a thousand year event for the Honga Tonga Honga Ha’apai caldera.