Volcanic Winter

Okay, can someone just let me know if it's too soon yet to put my wetsuit and snorkel on and go lay out to on the grass?

All things considered, I still think we're in a really good spot for this. If the Euro changed course this morning it'd be one thing, but it's holding strong and adding the RGEM on board? I'll take it. I like that even the GFS has my area getting a few inches; that's a nice consolation prize. Long ways to go.

Good example of how sensitive this is. GFS hangs that initial piece of energy back just a bit, and it's enough to kick the storm out east. Probably good even if this is an anomalous run, because I'm letting myself get too amped. The hype must flow but hype is also the mind killer, in a bit of a paradox.

The trend is your friend, until it's your enemy. I think Napoleon said that.

Welp, that would be a mixing nightmare for me down in Ocean Co. Hoping to see us all stay snow. Boxing Day was so special for that (though I lived in North Brunswick at the time, it performed beautifully where I live now).

I took it that current guidance favors NE, but historical model bias (and current trends) suggests we're still very much in the game, and even compared to other major events. Not bad at this point IMO. The set up is clearly extremely delicate however, and it's really tough to start feeling excitement knowing how easily / quickly this could crumble.

Yeah I'm basically checking out until Tuesday night. If we're looking good at that point, I'm all in. Hit or bust, let's do this. *refreshes thread in two hours*

I like that it's shown up on more than one model (albeit at different times). Seems to suggest the solution is out there as a possibility in the ether, somewhere, but we need to get lucky. At least it doesn't seem like total fantasy at this point, but that of course could change. Well, far better than having nothing to watch, that's for sure.

If I'm not literally blockaded into my home by a five foot snow drift from this storm, I'll be disappointed. Like, force me to excavate a tunnel to get to my car, 1888 style. ... No? Alright, fine. Give me 3-5 that hangs around at least 48 hours and I'll be good, I promise. Really.

VEI 4 is too small to impact the climate and VEI 5 at the high end usually has only a minor impact (-0.1-.2C). Pinatubo was substantially larger. According to the Smithsonian GVP (https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=290250) , this was a VEI 4 level eruption and thus wouldn't likely have had much of an impact. The Laki eruption was a few years prior, while only classified as a VEI 4 or 5* as it only had a brief explosive phase, it erupted over 15km^3 of extremely sulphur rich magma and put so much gas into the atmosphere it was killing people in Europe. This was estimated to ultimately have a climate impact even though little was directly injected into the stratosphere, which is usually the driver for volcanic cooling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki https://www.volcanocafe.org/laki-deconstructed-ii-anatomy-of-an-eruption/ "[Laki] 120,000,000 long tons of sulfur dioxide was emitted, about three times the total annual European industrial output in 2006 (but delivered to higher altitudes, hence its persistence), and equivalent to six times the total 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption" This eruption was essentially, mechanically, a miniature flood basalt. *The VEI scale is somewhat flawed and cannot measure effusive eruptions well. Laki is a VEI 4-5 only because its explosive tephra production was limited, but it effused an absolutely massive amount of magma and an even more massive amount of sulphur. More on the scale of a VEI 6 like Pinatubo, though considerably more sulphur as mentioned above. Laki was highly anomalous and exceptional in many ways.

Kid in a candy store reading this link, thanks again: http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very Cold Periods in the Eastern US.pdf Reports from this time period are absolutely fascinating. Imagine a December without it reaching 40 degrees and having snow cover the entire month, just unbelievable stuff.

@bluewave That was a phenomenal read, thank you!

I’m very inclined to move away from the coast. The difficult thing is my work (in Hillside, Union Co). Commuting from N / NW NJ wouldn’t be bad, but I really want out of this state. Spent all my life here and there’s too much beauty in the NE region to be stuck in a state with a ludicrous population density. Traffic makes me mad. If I can get my wife onboard I’d love to move to New Hampshire or Maine. Half my wife’s family is French Canadian and there may be some opportunity for a more drastic move, but of course even that is a vastly bigger deal / commitment. Of course if I pursued my passion for geology / volcanology there’d be an opportunity to spend time living in Iceland, which for us is one of the most beautiful places on earth. Been there four times now (in winter) and planning to go back soon. My wife surprisingly on board with that, but once again an endless escalation of commitments and an even more drastic change. Not always easy.

Of course it’s likely not accurate at this point. Hopefully if other models start to show a storm signal for that time period the takeaway is an event to track and hopefully something productive. Not ready to write winter off despite it at times making me feel I’d be better off doing so.

Your lips to Gaia’s ears.

I’ve often tried to research weather reports from the LIA (Little Ice Age) and the magnitude of the cold during the worst winters of that period I can’t even fathom, and I’ve no idea how modern people today would adjust. It was just such a different climate back then. Despite my name I don’t subscribe fully to the notion that the LIA was “caused” by large scale volcanism, rather it was enhanced in certain years. Even very large eruptions haven’t conclusively been proven to impact the climate for a period longer than a decade at the extreme end. The LIA was just a very cold oscillation that got punctuated by additional forcings. Regardless, I routinely daydream about what that period would’ve been like in our area. (If stuff like this is better served in the banter thread please ignore, I’m still a bit new here and this is quite a slow period).

This guy winters. I can’t stand the torchy patterns or, worse, torchy winters. It’s depressing and reminds me of the general trend of where we’re headed. Seasonal variation is a nice thing to have, and a little cold air is good for the soul. I completely respect a “to each their own” approach, but I 100% prefer cold and dry to hot and humid. Frankly I don’t enjoy the way NJ does heat, the humidity makes it unbearable for me. Writing is on the wall that it’s time for my wife and I to consider moving out of here.

18 this morning, western inland edge of Toms River. I’ve noticed this January on the colder nights we’ve been running a good bit colder than the “official” temp for TR, not necessarily last night but in general. Probably because I’m more inland and further away from the coast than the station. It is nice to be just far enough from the coast to reduce the amount of coastal mixing that sometimes happens, yet close enough to retain the benefits of strong coastal banding. Only thing I like living down here vs up north with most of you.

So long, little fella.

Lucky. 0... Maybe 1/10th of an inch on grass in Hillside near Newark and exactly 0 in Toms River.

Was a very sulphur-poor eruption, likely a lot of sulphur leached out into the ocean. It was an exceptional blast however, quite likely the single biggest explosion on earth since Krakatau. Novarupta and Santa Maria, while both larger than Tonga in terms of volume, were at a lower minute by minute intensity. I've seen calculations that its peak energy release was even ahead of Pinatubo's climactic peak on June 15th (though again, lesser in volume).Insane.

Heaviest precipitation now where it's still raining, and the back edge looks pretty rough.

Basically mood flakes for many if not most at this point.

My backyard cam in Toms River NJ (near Manchester, Western inland edge) has nothing on grass / deck. All rain with a very heavy precipitation band overhead now. App showing temps though as 38 still ... Very frustrating especially as anything that falls today will stick around.

34 in Hillside (just got to work), flipped to sleet and a bit of ugly snow with nothing really sticking. Hoping at least for a coating.