Volcanic Winter

Woke up early to a literal NAM nuke on Toms River, which feels like a fever dream. Illustrates how much any westward shift at this point can up the ante for us. I've been expecting 12-18 or so, but perhaps I can be bribed upward if that NAM keeps insisting....

Trying to reach Long Island after the storm.

I feel titilated.

I really would love more of the meteorologists here to chime in today. Forky-san, I need your prophetic guidance! With that said, certainly very aware how busy they are.

Any chance the models are underestimating the effect of the SSTs? I can't logically offer anything on why they would, but they are anomalously high this year. Lots of energy.

If it's correct. Are you going to stake on it? Why aren't the pros in terms of snow forecasts? Would be no watches anywhere in the area even for me. With respect, this is too volatile to just conclude the GFS is right. And yet, it absolutely could prove to be. Crazy times. This is extremely volatile especially with the precarious set up. Maybe the GFS has the best solution, maybe its slightly underestimating. I don't feel confident either way.

If we all band together can we form a spirit bomb and throw it into the trough, Goku style?

There are stages of interactions that lead to the surface depiction. If one of the earlier and more crucial stages is showing a more favorable look than before above the surface, going forward it could lead to more significant changes downstream even if the current run doesn't show it yet. Atleast that would be my ELI5 understanding.

Next run: GFS coastal bomb with two feet totals Euro: Iceland storm. Dusting to 1 inch here.

Even though temps moderate down by me we can still get very cold. The low at my house for this January is 6. And we tend to be in a prime spot for nor'easters of this nature. I'd still rather live north and will move north someday, but I definitely don't hate this location relative to big storm potential.

Sorry, live in Ocean work in Union.

You have to, man. Seriously. Respectfully, you can't drop a bomb on people at the last minute in an area with millions and millions of people.

I'm under one for 6-12.

Ignoring the GFS, and the variance of all other models over the last 24 hours to me suggests difficulty in the placing and evolution of the low. And that means chances still for more or less favorable outcomes. I think this one is going down to the wire. Could be wrong and a better consensus forms by this evening.

Got down to 9 here in western inland Toms River. Good bit colder than official forecasted low.

Yeah apparently the GFS is playing checkers with that data. (and hopefully not 4D chess)

I just woke my wife up bursting out a cackle. Damn you.

Someone should call Iceland and let them know the GFS found a storm for them.

Have some fun. This should be fun and miserable at the same time producing its own sort of masochistic pleasure. This place is like 50 Shades of Weather, and I'm here for it.

You also can't have people preparing for this literally Friday. IMO we shouldn't project our disappointment on the fact that they started telling people about the storm's potential. Very tough situation with the models split like that, unless their meteorologists were prepared to toss the Euro completely and commit to the GFS no way you can't bypass giving the millions of people that live here ample notice given the potential for a very, very potent storm. I work in an area related to this, if they waited much longer and this pans out, it would be absolutely nightmarish on Friday.

Boxing Day was my favorite storm of all time, and I was a kid for 96. Still like my memories of 2010 best out of all the storms I've seen here in NJ the past 30 years. Was in North Brunswick at the time.

I'm taking a break. Some of you should, too. Clear mind, clear thoughts. Refresh and come back to it later. Along with what was posted about the Tweet from Mike Masco I've read some about this being an anomalous run of the Euro that flubbed positioning a bit. I'd say room for a bit of optimism. See you hotdogs later.

Anyone have a read on what professional forecasters are saying at this juncture, if anything? Can't dig too deep while at work. Just enough time to relentlessly refresh this thread lol.

Most people have no concept of the extreme volatility AGW will force into the climate system.