Volcanic Winter

Major temperature drop going to work between TR and near Newark. 42 down to 33. Moderately heavy rain.

I’ll never forget that run. Garbage or not seeing a model pump out a map like that was insane. Especially since forecasters were having difficulty latching onto the most likely outcome, that run had me spitting out my coffee. It’s okay to have some fun with this, I knew it was extremely unlikely. Most of us are here because we love weather and appreciate snow, so seeing those pretty colors was exciting even if only briefly. There was so much uncertainty with that storm it was more than just a hypothetical “what if”.

If only the Nam did the best with 1/29 and we all got 70 inches.

Eventually the increasing base warmth will win out. Any good March from here on out should be appreciated for what it is. I wasn’t tracking winter weather as closely a few years back but March 2018 was following a monster SSW right?

It’s awful. Eventually I’m getting out of here. North Jersey is great but I’d probably be happiest up in New Hampshire or Maine. Some day. Feels less and less likely I’ll see another winter like 14 and 15 around here, where we had both long duration cold and actual persisting snowpack. A rarity for my area but possible (though never to the extent as up north, of course). This January was great for me and we had one amazing storm and a couple decent ones, but even with a BN month the melt was tenacious. That’s why it doesn’t touch what we experienced here in the middle of last decade, but that was apparently a pretty good outlier for how things are these days.

With respect to temperatures how are the next two weeks looking overall?

Was nice to have a major snow event in Ocean County NJ this winter. We haven’t had a major snowfall since 2018. The Feb 1 2021 storm we had I think 5-6 inches while where I work got 18ish. Been a tough few winters for me. Could do with one more even few inch event but not looking especially likely at this point. Hoping for one more coastal where we do very well with the right track. Hopefully you city guys get some snow from this and those in northern NJ and HV do well.

It’s a very fascinating subject I wish more people looked into with interest. It’s actually incredible how many regional and worldwide events were influenced by large scale volcanism, and completely unknowingly until recent times. The easy ones are Thera (the Minoan eruption) and Vesuvius 79AD, but there have been many away from population centers that completely borked the climate for several years and caused massive crop failures leading to famines, disease, and political unrest. The Tierra Blanco Joven eruption around 530’s (Wiki) AD lead to one of the worst climate disasters in history, the massive Samalas / Rinjani eruption in 1257ish AD, the speculative Kuwae eruption in the 1450s, Huaynaputina in 1600, and then of course Laki, Tambora, and Krakatau. There are many more as well, most with slightly lesser effects. Pinatubo was the most recent significant volcanic climate alteration for a couple years in the 90s. It’s the most interesting earth sciences topic I’ve ever studied, personally (along with paleo-geology / tectonics and of course meteorology).

Forky man, just get me one more snow event here at the NJ coast and I’m good, I promise. Trying to quit the cold white stuff but it’s very difficult.

Bear in mind the LIA is postulated to have ended around 1850. The last “pulse” was aided by the massive eruption of Tambora in 1815 along with a preceding yet unknown very large sulphurous eruption in 1808/9. While the late 1800’s were definitely colder than now (especially around the time of the eruption of Krakatau in 1883), things were beginning to warm up on average and for certain they had anomalously warm temperatures at times, though of course less often than we do now. Depends on how you look at it. I always found some of the years of the 1930’s fascinating as you had extreme record warmth and then horrific cold months apart in the same calendar year.

I like the runs that show more snow in central / coastal NJ. Brb, placing my order with the GFS.

@JustinRP37 The physics of this are clear and undeniable, yet for some people science is an opinion and not the process of finding truth. More people should study paleo-geology and volcanology. It’s clear the impact CO2 has on the climate system as there have been massive flood basalt eruptions in ancient eras that have caused extreme temperature cascades from CO2 levels in excess of 2000PPM. The planet was nearly sterilized in the Permian Mass Extinction. Trying not to digress too far from the topic. Getting pretty hyped for March at this point. Trying to stay realistic but feeling that tingle of excitement that we may have some good chances left this winter along with more of my preferred colder conditions.

We’re doing a great job of that ourselves without the help of Mother Nature. We’ve really borked the carbon cycle.

Isaias was monstrous by me. Took down two of our trees and crashed a huge, heavy branch into our deck. That was one of if not the worst wind events post Sandy.

The wind woke me up this morning around 4am. In the process of setting up a Tempest weather station my wife got me for my birthday, but it’s not up and running just yet. If I had to guess we were easily 55mph+ on some of those gusts. Heavy wind blown rain and was sitting around 61 degrees. This was inland Toms River. Driving to work the temperature fell a good amount, 52 now where I am in Union Co. Still blustery.

Bluewave, I say this with great respect for the other intelligent posters here that contribute insightful commentary and information, but if I could choose the “A WX Best User of Winter 21-22” award, it would be going to you. Always contributing useful and relevant analysis and information. In my short time here it’s much appreciated.

Warmth appears to be overperforming a bit at my two locations. 65 at work in Hillside and 65 at my house in TR.

Absolutely, not every specific event is tied to it and and extreme, variable weather always occurred. Was just making a general point not specific to this winter per se. As someone who enjoys the cold, I simply try to cherish each cold day that we get. Or perhaps, I should’ve just been born during the LIA. People were a bit stinkier back then but I’d be in my winter glory nonetheless.

Well, of course we always have warm days in winter here. The point was (and was verified by a chart posted a couple pages back) that the number of 60 degree days in winter here is steadily increasing as the overall climate system warms.

Doesn’t feel like winter, don’t like it. Though I suppose I should get used to it as these kinds of days will only become more and more common in winter here. IMO don’t take the cold for granted. Eventually we’ll be lucky to drop below freezing.

If the early March cold verifies this will have been quite a seesaw winter of sustained warmth -> cold -> warmth -> cold. Especially with the high departures both warm and then cold in Dec and Jan, are we in historically significant territory for the intensity of the flip flopping? Looks like it’s happening yet one more time with the warmth flipping back to more intense cold (if things play out as modeled). I know we often have a seesaw effect here in winter, but I don’t quite remember one this pronounced. Especially with a -3.5ish degree departure in January.

Nemo, Juno, and Jonas sounds like the names of a new boy band. Their number one single, “13 Inches of Love” off the hit album, ‘The Snowman and the Torch’.

Here’s my professional forecast: We’re gonna get some cold, then some warmth, then some colder warmth and warmer cold. We’ll get a bit of rain, a windy day or two, and possibly a couple flakes. Eventually it’ll get warmer and then sunnier and more rain and wind, less flakes as the months move on. Beat that forecast, hotshots!

Fair, everyone feels differently as has their own personal preferences. I should be living somewhere colder. I hate heat and humidity and prefer hiking in snow to hiking in green, flowers, and pollen.

But I absolutely loathe torching in Jan or Feb (Dec I suppose I’m already used to) so this month is painful for me. All it does is remind me of where things are heading with current AGW, and it reminds me how our area is one of the fastest warming places in winter in the country. Tough to appreciate nice days when I think about what it represents.