Volcanic Winter

So that’s what I was asking, why or how are Niñas after Niños so good for us? How does the ENSO state from the previous year influence the patterns of the current state? Is it just a statistical finding or is there theory behind it? Edit: Nevermind Liberty, just got to your follow up reply, appreciate it. Of course if anyone else wanted to chime in, thanks.

I’m here for it. I dare it to make me break out my down parka.

Ideally we want a weak Niño which is better for snow than neutral, right? And I think I’ve read a Modoki is even better, and that a Niña following a Niño is good as well? What would be the mechanism for the latter question; how would the ENSO state from a year prior impact a new Niña? Or is it just something that emerged statistically? Apologies for the barrage of questions, this is very interesting.

Can't El Nino also hurt us if it's too strong? I feel like we'll be at risk of swinging from a persistent Nina to a powerful Nino like 2016 and just torch anyway. Of course I'm probably, hopefully wrong.

Hmm, I'm already at 26. Not bad for the coast. Jealous of them, though. For sure.

My wife and I were in Iceland last month and went to the Northern region for the first time. Re: discussion in the main Dec thread I mentioned I’d share some pics if anyone is interested. It’s absurdly beautiful there, and going mainly to the north, were able to hike in quite a bit of wintry-ness. https://imgur.com/a/2PJs7CB (First three aurora pics were in Reykjavik, the latter one is the northern capital Akureyri. Of course the strongest auroras over our two week trip there occurred while we briefly stayed in the cities, lol) Edit: Accidentally added that road video, doesn’t really show anything lol. And last two pics are of Fagradalsfjall, the volcano that erupted for a second time in a year a few months ago - was dormant since the Middle Ages

It’s an absurdly beautiful country (especially as a geology nerd, along with Hawaii it’s the pinnacle of basaltic volcanism on earth). I’ll post some pics of the north later in the banter thread. Edit: Imgur album here https://imgur.com/a/2PJs7CB

Hard to answer without being long winded. In short: I vastly prefer cold weather to warm and I’m saddened by the way our Decembers have trended. The rate of warming is most during December IIRC and every torched day is a reminder of where we’re heading. What I would do or not do differently doesn’t factor into it, though my wife and I are hikers but prefer cold weather / winter hiking. We just got back from a two week hiking trip to the northern part of Iceland, our fourth time there. We live in a part of the country with pronounced seasonality; reminders that we’re losing part of our historical winters makes me sad. Doubly and triply so when that falls on the biggest holiday, partly derived from Yule - a strictly winter affair.

At this point I don’t care about anything other than not torching for Xmas and Xmas Eve. Give me at least seasonable cold and I’ll be grateful. Looking good that least we’ll hopefully hit that mark. Glorious snow would be a bonus, but I’ll take the cold and run with it as a step one. Lots of winter ahead of us to get the ducks in a row properly.

Yeah, we’ll see I guess. Would be nice to catch a break and have the models trend toward favorable and then finally lock in instead of seeing them trend unfavorable and that always being a metaphysical certitude. I admit it’s probably cognitive bias, or at least explainable by the Niña background state. Still, frustrating.

Isn’t the 23rd looking trackable? Saw a few posts about it but haven’t been able to look myself.

I think Bluewave pondered this a couple weeks ago when I asked, but I do wonder how much longer elevated SST’s will help us rather than start to hurt. Eventually it’s going to be too much thermal energy offshore and we’re going to be too warm at the coast. Did someone mention that the elevated SST’s has to do with rising overnight lows and dew points?

Not trying to be funny or condescending in any way, but I really did a double take when I realized it’s only Dec 13th today. We seem way too on edge for being not even two weeks into December. I said something similar before, but think back to last year. My first winter with you guys, signed up in Jan but read the whole Dec thread here. It was dark (and rightly so because the month sucked). We’re in such a better spot with actual seasonal cold right now compared to ‘Merry Torchmas’ 2021. We really have nothing to worry about. Last year couldn’t have been any more hostile to kick winter off and Jan turned out pretty good. We’re starting from a way higher baseline this year, by default.

Yes, actually. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/magma-bubble-rising-under-new-england-volcanoes-science Check back in a few hundred thousand to a few million years and NA could have a new supervolcano.

So is winter cancelled? Let me know so I can start crocheting a new toilet seat cover to give my wife for Xmas.

I can read snow maps. The bigger the number the more excited the weenie. Right?

24F down by me. Nice, crisp morning.

Not sure how many fans of Nordic melodic death metal we have here, but this is my dedicated “kick off the winter” and “it’s gonna snow” album. Given our prognosis for a descent into colder departures going forward I figured today is an appropriate day to put it on during my long commute to and from work. It’s heavy, but effectively sets the mood: Insomnium - Winter’s Gate

Hey, this is certainly more fun than tracking how torched the next week is gonna be and taking bets on who sees 60+. We could be in a very different spot. This is fun. Let’s get some snow, boys. This week or next, it’s gonna happen.

What was the most recent KU type storm? Assuming 1/29 was too irregular to qualify?

Not for nothing, if this winter turns out snowy and cold it’s a good omen for the next two winters as well. Volcanic forcing doesn’t erode in a year. But it’s also not all encompassing and can be offset by other unfavorable factors, of course. It’s more another piece of the puzzle. With the recent paper showing the underestimation of sulfur released in that eruption combined with latest assessment of its size, there’s a very good chance it has a hand in what’s going on. It was as big or even bigger than Pinatubo, just with a different aerosol profile. Because I’m a giga geology nerd, one last factoid about HTHH: they recently discovered evidence for underwater pyroclastic flows reaching 80km away from the caldera! That’s absolutely insane.

Thanks for info / discussion. My assessment of “climo” would be say that 1/29/22 happened in mid Dec with the same track and I got rain to 2 inches of slush instead of 16 inches of powder, as even with a favorable track for me the mid levels stay too warm. Like in this case wrt Thurs storm even at the end of January a low tracking that close would give rain across the coastal plain of NJ / NY and NE, perhaps with a slightly closer cutoff of snow. Just sharing how I interpret that, but I guess it’s more a summation of factors including track.

Isn't it literally just the track in this case? If the storm were further south NYC would get blasted.

Quite torchy down by me (Ocean - live, Union - work) today, mid 40’s and moderate rain all day. Jealous of your snow guys, but happy for you. Hoping to see a flake or two on the ground when I go to work tomorrow but not expecting it. Hopefully this kicks off an active and snowy winter!