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TheClimateChanger

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  1. TheClimateChanger
    Something is amiss. I never see ASOS reporting 100% without some sort of weather (fog, rain, snow), and they claim it actually dropped 2F below the minimum hourly dewpoint reading. Looking at the climate stats, BWI is running 2-4F cooler [relative to its average] than all of the surrounding sites for weeks on end. What is going on here?
  2. TheClimateChanger
    Something amiss with the BWI temperature sensor? This strikes me as odd. Rarely if ever see an ASOS sensor reporting 100% humidity without some type of weather (fog, rain, snow). And not only that it claims it fell 2F below the minimum hourly dewpoint reading at some point. Wasn't even 100% ideal radiational cooling conditions with a 3-6 mph wind, rather than dead calm over that interval. Looks like it's been running 2-3F below the norms compared to other sites over the past several weeks as well.
  3. TheClimateChanger
    Very impressive. 77.50% of the continental U.S. is in D0 to D4. That is the 20th highest weekly amount since the drought monitor began in 2000. Only the period from July 10, 2012 to September 4, 2012, and the period from October 11, 2022 to December 13, 2022 had more D0 or worse conditions. No other single week outside of those stretches had more drought or dryness.
  4. TheClimateChanger
    Not bad. Would like to see the oranges and reds shift a bit further northwest.
  5. TheClimateChanger
    Nah, overall climate is just a little cooler than Tennessee used to be, and the last couple of years have been fully Tennessean. You cherrypicked two locations that are more than 600' lower in elevation than Pittsburgh airport.
  6. TheClimateChanger
  7. TheClimateChanger
    Brrr... Detroit made it down to 37F. So cold! The record low max for October 16 & 18 is 37F! The record low for today is 23F.
  8. TheClimateChanger
    No, not sarcastic. And I like you Tip, but I'm going to have to respectfully disagree. The sample size was more than the standard 30-year for the historic DC numbers. Yes, the Elkin figures are only 9 years, but this year will be the tenth - does anyone really think it's going to deviate that substantially from the previous 9? A 10-year sample historically would be a good approximation for a 30-year mean centered on that 10 years. I doubt there's ever been an instance [when the climate has been less in flux] where a 10-year mean differed more than about 1F from its corresponding 30-year mean. 10 years is long enough to overcome pretty much any climate cycles. Even the solar cycle is only 11 years, so you're pretty much capturing an entire solar cycle in that sample. I'll grant you right now it's only 9, but winter is coming!
  9. TheClimateChanger
    Where is that guy from Illinois that's always complaining about Illinois winters? He needs to see this!
  10. TheClimateChanger
    Glad somebody said it. And Chicago, you guys have cold winters compared to Ohio and Pennsylvania. But people don't think Ohio and Pennsylvania are mild. Dude, our winters are basically 1950 Kentucky/Tennessee winters. It's laughably stupid. Like Florida doesn't have mild winters, it has NO winter. It's not a 4-season location.
  11. TheClimateChanger
  12. TheClimateChanger
    False, it has plenty to do with October. I just stated in my post, there are opportunities for several days of 70+ coming up this week to add onto the current record. The 32 or lower max temperatures is also relevant, because as we move into late October, it becomes possible to have high temperatures at or below freezing. The earliest 32F max for Detroit is October 29, 1925. As though a switch is flipped, it becomes commonplace in the month of November. Every day in the month of November, save the 2nd and 6th, have had at least one 32 or lower afternoon [and those days were close with highs of 33F and 34F]. By the second half of November, highs below 20F occur from time to time. So it is indeed something to watch over the coming weeks, as I said.
  13. TheClimateChanger
    If we look at the 10 hottest years at Phoenix, we see a number of recent years with means ranging from 76.4F to 77.3F. I suspect 2024 will eclipse these, but the year is not yet complete. But if we subtract Maue's speculated 10F urban heat island effect, then we see all of these years were actually far cooler than the coldest years on record. Astounding! What we can conclude then is rural areas have warmed considerably, but Phoenix [and only Phoenix] has actually cooled considerably but the urban heat island has corrupted the data to such an extent that it looks like it has warmed. Fascinating theory.
  14. TheClimateChanger
    Here is the historical population data for Phoenix. Weird how this "urban heat island" effect wasn't a big deal in 2000, when the population was more than 1.3 million, or 1990, when the population was about 1 million, or 1980, when the population was about 800,000. It just suddenly appeared in 2020, when heat records were being broken left and right. Fascinating phenomena.
  15. TheClimateChanger
    @donsutherland1 - it is curious how this "urban heat island" effect suddenly appeared in Phoenix after 2019, which I pointed out is when 3 of 5 years saw 20+ days more of 110+ afternoons than any prior year. I wonder how the proponents of this "urban heat island" theory rectify their theory with the actual data? Surely, Phoenix has been a very large American city for decades at this point. Why was something like this never observed before 2020? Almost like there's something else going on here.
  16. TheClimateChanger
    Muh urban heat island effect. All I'm saying Tip is if you had told the people of Washington D.C. 100-odd years ago that places high up in the mountains where 70-80 inches of snow fall each winter would, in the not-so-distant future, have warmer warmers than subtropical Washington, they'd have you locked up in the lunatic asylum. Downtown D.C. winter mean (1871-72 to 1903-1904) Elkins, West Virginia winter means (2015-16 to 2023-24), elev. ~2,000 feet, city pop. ~6,900 and Randolph County pop. ~27,800
  17. TheClimateChanger
    Not trying to clutter anything. Just sharing some interesting statistics to be on the lookout for as we progress through the month of October.
  18. TheClimateChanger
    Not good numbers for the snowpack retention crew. Going to be exceptionally hard to retain snowpack with only a week or two of days at or below freezing.
  19. TheClimateChanger
    Another way of looking at this equitable climate is to consider the number of days with a max temperature of at least 70F, but less than 85F (i.e, within the range of 70-84F). The current record is 125 days, set in 2023 & 2024. There will be several more opportunities for such days this year, so Detroit should surpass 2023's sum. The pre-2023 record is 121 days from 1960, 2000, and 2004.
  20. TheClimateChanger
    It will also be interesting to see how many days with max temperatures at or below freezing occur at Detroit prior to January 1, 2025. Currently, there have been 12 such days, which is the second least on record behind 2023 (7). What's insane about this statistic is that there have only been 19 days since January 1, 2023, where the max failed to reach 33F. Prior to 2023, the record for a single year was only 1 less than that (18, set in 2012, 2006 & 1931). "We do a lot of firsts. Let me tell you folks, we do a lot of firsts." - Donald J. Trump
  21. TheClimateChanger
    With 77 days left in the year, here's how 2024 ranks at Detroit for various temperature levels [down to 65F, won't go lower since there's likely to be a number of days in the 50-65F before the end of the year, so the rankings would be misleading at this point]. As noted, the record has already been set for 70+ days. If we can manage 2 more 75F days, we can tie that record too. I suspect the record for 65+ days may fall as well, and 60F+ is in play too. At higher levels of heat, sums are above the long-term medians, but not super high. It looks like Detroit is seeing a more equitable climate than in the past, as most of these moderately warm day records have been set in recent years. 95+: 2 days [tied 44th most] 90+: 14 days [tied 44th most] 85+: 38 days [tied 53rd most] 80+: 97 days [tied 5th most] 75+: 129 days [tied 2nd most] 70+: 163 days [record] 65+: 178 days [tied 7th most]
  22. TheClimateChanger
    Upcoming pattern looks conducive for 2024 to tack on some more 70+ days to pad the record-breaking amount observed at Detroit. It seems likely the record is broken by more than an excess of one week over the former record of 159 days set in 2021 & 2012. "We do a lot of firsts. Let me tell you folks, we do a lot of firsts." - Donald J. Trump
  23. TheClimateChanger
    Lake effect saving us from frost and possible freeze. Looks like Thursday night and possibly Friday night are the best chances for frost. It doesn't look like a widespread freeze, but outlying areas - especially valley locations - could see subfreezing conditions on one or more mornings. At PIT, 7 of the last 9 days have been cooler than the current normals, but we are still nearly 2F above normal overall for the month. Looks like we'll tack on at least a couple/few more below normal days, which could bring us down to near seasonal averages before a warming trend commences.
  24. TheClimateChanger
    For the visual folks: What I find most startling here is the record before 2020 was 33 days [and even those were fairly recent]. Three of the last 5 summers have beaten the pre-2020 record by 20 or more days! "We do a lot of firsts. Let me tell you folks, we do a lot of firsts." - Donald J. Trump
  25. TheClimateChanger
    Bro, it's 50 degrees in Clearfield. I'm betting that was graupel.
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