George001

Way underdone, with the low that deep and the stall, I would think it would be a widespread 24+ with the jackpot areas getting 3 feet+ if that were to verify.

Even in the screw zones it’s a widespread 18+

This type of solution raises the ceiling even more I would think because the low stalls. Ideally it would stall a little more to the ne, but either way its a blizzard.

Euro has a 968 mb low inside the benchmark, doesn’t leave behind any of the southern stream energy.

That’s a great sign when even the “bad” runs are still giving us in eastern mass a foot.

yeah there is a lot of southern energy. The more east solutions seem to be holding the energy back. Hopefully it trends towards a quicker ejection in future runs and no energy is left behind.

Ah shit…. We lost the Canadian! Hopefully the ensembles are farther west.

I’m not buying the east models at all (nam, gfs, icon). In my opinion there are several factors that favor the western side of the envelope. 1. The ridge axis is over Idaho, which i believe is even more west than the Jan 2015 blizzard. 2. The ensembles are west of the op 3. This is the most important one, the Navy, notorious for having a progressive bias is west of all the models I mentioned above. The rule of thumb I use with the Navy is I straight up ignore all guidance east of it. If the progressive biased Navy thinks this is coming up the coast, in my opinion it probably is. In fact, a blend of the big 3 is west enough that even my area could see precip type issues.

It’s funny, having people from all over New England rooting for snow in their backyards, you can get a decent idea of how the models shifted by looking at who is getting excited. With the 1/16 storm I knew my area was cooked when the NNE and more west posters started getting on board. Then I took a look at the models, and yep, drenching rain right over my backyard.

looking at the eps indies it looks like there are 2 camps, both are inside the benchmark so we get slammed either way, but the sw one seems to be a sign that the storm could slow down. If that happens someone could easily get over 3 feet.

Lots of really strong lows that are quite west. Great sign

The gfs going from one of the most amped to out to sea in one run shows how garbage that mode is. Navy is farther west and it has a notable se bias, so anything east of it can be tossed.

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark blizzard, it’s going to be will it be just inside the benchmark or hug the coast? My Initial thoughts are that the low will hug the coast, going from just east of Long Island, to over the cape cod elbow, and then going into the gulf of Maine, rapidly deepening as it comes up the coast. I am forecasting the low to deepen to the 960s. Since this is a preliminary forecast I am going to start conservative and adjust upwards if needed. NYC: 12-18 Central to eastern long island: 16-20 1-95 corridor, Boston, and interior se ma: 16-20 Worcester: 20-24 Berkshires: 24-28 all of CNE and NNE 20+

Navy is no longer out to sea. Now we have all 3 of the big 3 showing a blizzard. Seeing the Navy this far north adds credibility to the Canadian track.

I don’t see why it couldn’t with the high to the north in place and the strength of the low.

I completely agree, the Canadian is a great model but it isn’t the best for surface temps. Even with the low coming up over Worcester, due to the high to the north and the strength of the low, I would think the dynamical cooling would offset the less than idea track, allowing it to snow even places that are east of the low.

Looks like at least this frame the Boston area is north of the low. It does eventually come up and goes right over the Worcester area, but on tropical tidbits it has the 850mb line offshore. So I would think it’s still heavy snow even areas east of the low.

Holy shit, is that the Canadian? Canadian and Euro both have 2ft+ over the area. Low deepens to the 970s on the Canadian and the 950s on the Euro, with blizzard conditions! I think it’s safe to say there will be a monster blizzard somewhere with how far west the models have moved over the last couple of days.

Euro has 30+, I buy that.

What are you thinking about my area, based on what im seeing on the Canadian it looks like my area is right on the line.

Imagine if we had the Canadian track with the Euros 940s mb low

The Canadian looks really good, I wonder if we would see a rain to snow type scenario with that as the low comes up the coast, due to the more tucked track it brings in some more warm air initally. However, as the low continues to deepen it creates its own cold air via dynamical cooling, changing over many areas in se mass from rain to blizzard conditions. Is this a possibility with the track and strength of the low?

I agree. Rain snow line would be confined to the outer cape imo, NW of there blizzard conditions.

The pattern doesn’t look great in early Feb but it’s not a torch pattern, still looks like there is cold air on our side of the globe unlike 2011-2012. I’m not going to give up on winter after the pattern change, it can and has snowed in patterns worse than the projected early Feb pattern. I’m not a fan of being negative and downplaying threats 3+ days out, id rather look at the possible upside. That’s part of the fun of tracking.

The biggest blizzard in the last decade for my area was Feb 2013, which deepened to 968 mb at its peak. The euro as well as many of its ensembles have the low deepening even more than that. This has the potential to be a historic blizzard, even stronger than Feb 2013 and possibly even Feb 1978. The crazy thing about that Euro run is it wasn’t even a direct hit and still gave eastern mass 2+ feet. Imagine how much it would be with a 940s mb low over Nantucket or the outer cape instead of se of the benchmark!