George001

This pattern looks really interesting. There is a very strong western ridge and a very potent northern branch. All that northern energy digging into the Midwest makes me think there is some potential for the Miller A being shown right now to turn into a Miller B. Some other models are showing suppression, but I’m not really buying that. There are several factors on the 12z Euro arguing against suppression. 1. Look how far west that western ridge is, it’s centered about 200 miles west of ideal for a 40/70 track. In fact, it’s so far west it argues that the risk is for an inland runner if anything. 2. How poleward the western ridge is, it’s so poleward it extends all the way into the North Pole. Whatever northern energy there is will likely be digging aggressively. 3. El Niño is nowhere to be found. The northern energy diving down in central Canada gets down to 504 isobars, and the isobars are very tightly packed. That energy’s origin is the North Pole. The Jet stream just doesn’t get that far north in El Niño. La Niña is in full control, which argues against a southern stream dominant solution. disclaimer- if the blocking doesn’t strengthen, it might rain.

Based on what I’m seeing on the models I think there could be a very real chance we see our first snow in SNE next weekend. This Wednesday is a sneaky threat as well, as it has trended towards more aggressive secondary redevelopment with the low (Miller B). If it were mid winter I would be very excited about the mid week threat, but the pattern is progressive with no blocking so I’m thinking it’s a rainstorm for us. The pattern next weekend looks better on the models, with a much more amplified trough. Looking at the surface map it looks like a Miller A nor’easter, and would bring a few inches of snow verbatim. Nothing too big. However, the H5 tells a different story….

due to the lack of cold air with climo working against us, we need a big slow moving nor’easter that creates its own cold air via dynamic cooling to have a shot at snow. The pattern on the models does not support that, the NAO is positive and the western ridge is farther west than ideal. That supports the idea of the low running inland with limited secondary redevelopment (Miller B). The western ridge is quite strong so it’s possible the storm and trends more amplified, which would increase the QPF. Even if that happens though, that would just mean more rain for us. That map posted above saying my area has a 33% chance of wintry weather seems way too high. NNE could cash in but for us in SNE we probably need to wait a month or so.

Yeah it’s too early for us outside of NNE, not enough cold air yet.

As always great work, I hope you are right about January. The mention of a once a generation type event with the potential to halt travel for a while caught my eye. The combination of factors you mentioned, with the drastic increase in water vapor due to the volcanic eruption last year, the frigid Canadian air and very mild ssts all creating the perfect storm for something big. Those same mild ssts that will likely screw us closer to the coast early could end up helping come mid winter before the blocking breaks down in Feb. It looks like you are thinking the large scale winter pattern will be an overall average East coast winter, with lots of ups and downs, no sustained snow blitz but no sustained blowtorch either. There isn’t an overwhelming blockbuster signal like 2014-2015, but there isn’t an overwhelming mild signal like the super nino in 2015-2016 so that seems reasonable, maybe a little less snow than last year in the Boston area and more snow NW like your area, Worcester ect. I would like to ask, you did mention that the way the month of November is progressing worried you about your analog composite somewhat I believe it was a week ago. If things were to deviate as a result of that, would that lead to more boom or more bust potential for this winter?

the bigger story here is the strength of the La Niña. There is still quite a bit of spread on the models about how strong the Nina will get, and it looks like the more aggressive models have the right idea looking at this. People who were talking about the possibility of a +PDO likely anticipated that the Nina would be weak, but that beast we currently have in the Pacific Ocean is anything but weak. The Nina is already stronger than last years Nina at this stage and has intensified over the past couple months.

The La Niña clearly isn’t east based, which isn’t surprising considering East based Nina’s are normally weak unlike that goddamn beast we currently have in the Pacific Ocean. It’s basin wide, but it’s strongest in the eastern areas rather than the western areas like last year.

For comparison purposes this is last years Nina, which peaked at -1.0 or right on the border of weak/moderate. It’s not even close.

One of the reasons why I’m starting to get really excited about the potential for a big December is the La Niña. I was of the impression that the La Niña was going to be weak by now, and be nearly gone by late December. That impression was based off the models a couple months ago, and things changed. That La Niña is not weak, not even close. I saw a comparison with this years La Niña and last years from early November on another board, and this years looks quite a bit stronger. It’s WAY stronger in the eastern 3 and 1.2 regions, but it’s also stronger and more expansive in the 3.4 and 4 regions as well. It’s straight up just a stronger La Niña, and is basin wide. This is reflected by the MEI values as well. Am I smoking some good shit, or does this Nina look closer to 2010-2011 than 2016-2017? I know it’s not super impressive by ONI but the area of below average temps is just so much more expansive than I would expect to see from a weak nina.

The pattern looks like it’s going to turn cold according to the models. I’d bet we start seeing snow threats pop up on the models soon, possibly even 1 or 2 runs showing a blizzard! Now it is November, so it’s very unlikely that it will even snow at all never mind a major nor’easter/blizzard. I’m just saying, the models will probably start showing it soon. Even though those fantasy storms won’t happen, it’s a good sign that the pattern is moving in a favorable direction going into December. The way things are going, in a month there’s a decent chance we will be tracking a storm for real.

A lot of people I know do indeed partake in the devils lettuce

Weed?

Outside of Feb, it looks decent even in the northern mid atlantic, neutral or negative NAO with poleward alaskan ridging. For us in New England that h5 look for the winter as a whole would be the 2nd best we’ve seen since 2014-2015 (only 2017-2018 had a better h5).

In the New England forum this guy tried to argue that the model looked ugly for Jan and Feb, yet if you actually look at monthly NAO data it only looks ugly for Feb. He legit tried to punt an entire extra month in the heart of winter and was hoping nobody would notice. If you want to make an argument for a mild winter that’s fine, and there are legitimate factors to point to (such as the Siberian snowcover, low ACE, ect). However, this guy straight up has no idea how to analyze an H5 map. Theres nothing wrong with that in itself, but you should pretend that you understand something when you don’t. I only understand how to analyze H5 maps at a very basic level myself and even I can see that his analysis is way off.

This is bad analysis, the H5 does not look ugly. The NAO is neutral and there is some poleward Alaskan ridging with some SE ridging as well. If you look at the monthly NAO values, the only month that looks ugly is Feb with a raging positive NAO.

Agreed, it’s not realistic to expect a wall to wall winter. Even if we get 2 shitty months, if we capitalize in the other 2 months we can still get a very good winter. The big question is if we will be able to capitalize or not on the windows of opportunity we do get. I’m looking forward to reading your winter forecast and hearing your thoughts on what to expect this coming winter.

January looks great to me, I doubt most on this thread will care that DC and Philly gets screwed in that pattern because we live in New England. Just like how the DC and Philly folks were happy (rightfully so, who cheers on snow for people living hundreds of miles away?) when they cashed in and we got screwed 2009-2010. It it’s not a Feb 2015 look with 2-3 feet blizzards every week obviously but that doesn’t make it bad. The SE ridge actually helps to prevent suppression, and there’s poleward Aleutian ridging, so it would probably be a cold snowy pattern for us on the right side of the gradient with a foot here, a foot there while DC and Philly rain. I live in New England, so Im a big fan of the January h5 look, hell even your area in NYC the January pattern looks decent. As for Feb I agree, that looks rough.

Isn’t the best month in La Niña patterns usually January? Yeah the blocking breaks down in Jan but often that’s when you get the strongest blizzards, when the blocking breaks down (like during late Jan last year). Then yeah, Feb and March are usually ass because like you said, the same forcing that helps in earlier in the winter starts working against us later on.

Is Isotherm still doing winter forecasts?

Yeah I don’t understand the anti La Niña sentiment among snow weenies especially NYC north. The negative PDO just means the Nina is coupled or acting like a Nina right? If so then yeah the PDO will probably negative again this year because we have a La Niña and the MEI is -1.8. That will probably drop some but if the models have the right idea the Nina should be well coupled and act like a Nina, which really isn’t anything to be afraid for weenies NYC north. Didnt pretty much everywhere NYC north get buried 2010-2011? My area got around double our average snowfall that year.

Well I’ve never once seen you bullish on a winter or specific snow threat. That’s fine, you are entitled to your opinion but whether you realize it or not your bias is as obvious as Bastardis. You actually make good posts and seem to know your shit, but like Bastardi in my opinion your bias is so strong it negatively impacts your forecasts. I agree with you on Bastardi though, the big issue I have with Bastardi is his climate change skepticism. He is very knowledgeable about meteorology but his refusal to incorporate AGW into his forecasts is making them worse and worse as climate change accelerates. Ignoring climate change when making a winter forecast is like trying to build a championship baseball roster while ignoring pitching (This is why the Red Sox sucked ass this year).

And you aren’t biased? You always call for a blowtorch winter with no snow which makes no sense. Hedging warmer than average when 50/50 due to climate change? Yeah that’s reasonable, and most of the long range guys I follow are hedging that way. But calling for a 2011-2012 type winter every year or downplaying every storm threat makes you just as biased as Bastardi. Some winters like 2015-2016 the signals were overwhelmingly pointing to a blowtorch, others like 2014-2015 they overwhelmingly pointed towards an icebox. This fall is in between, with signs pointing towards neither a blowtorch or icebox, just an average New England winter that will be decent for some areas, bad for others (like the past couple winters).

A lot of North Atlantic blocking, nice.

Yeah it’s way too early to write winter off. The La Nina = bad thing is nonsense, we have had plenty of great winters in La Nina’s. Even if the La Niña is moderate instead of weak that doesn’t mean it’s going to be a blowtorch with no snow. 2010-2011 was a strong La Niña, much stronger than this one is expected to be and had several monster blizzards.

Negative NAO for Dec, Jan, and Mar, neutral for Feb. If that’s right the mild and snowless Jan and Feb calls are going to bust big time.