George001

Storm coming back?

The positive EPO isn’t good, agreed. However there is blocking to prevent storms from cutting to the west. Cold air will be an issue but if the low is strong enough it can create its own cold air.

Yeah there is plenty of time for change for better or worse. Hopefully we see the blocking strengthen and become more west based as we get into December.

I don’t think that pattern is too bad. The pacific sucks but there is a lot of blocking which makes up for it.

Clown all you want but he’s right. All signs point to a negative NAO in December. Missing out on a low probability to begin with late November storm doesn’t change anything. A lot of times the models are too quick with the pattern change and it looks like this is one of those times. Delayed but not denied with the -NAO.

The blocking got weaker on the models so the secondary redevelopment will be too late for us. Oh well December still looks promising with all signs pointing to a negative nao.

Models are still all over the place, there hasn’t been any consistent trend. The probability of something big here is low because of the time of year, but it’s too early to write the storm off. We are still getting North Atlantic blocking so we can get big snows even if the pac is bad for early December. The mid Atlantic may struggle more.

Eps has good low location

With blocking the biggest concern is suppression, especially in El Niño patterns with a farther south storm track. Fortunately is 0 signs that we will have anything remotely resembling an El Niño pattern this winter.

To be fair to Snowman he’s right, the La Niña is quite powerful and will likely be one of our main pattern drivers this winter. However, this doesn’t mean what he likes to imply. The storm track is shifted further north with Nina’s, which when combined with North Atlantic blocking eliminating the risk of cutters leads to a lot of Miller B nor’easters. In a moderate to strong nino with a big -NAO there is a much higher risk of suppression with congrats DC and Philly. That is not a concern, as it is more likely that an asteroid strikes my house and kills me tomorrow than it is for us to experience El Niño conditions this winter.

Based on what’s happening now it looks promising for a -NAO. La Niña+ -NAO is a really good combination for us, even in stronger Nina’s.

The long range model forecasts show no signs of the blocking breaking down. Even if the storm next week doesn’t pan out, based on what the models are showing a -nao December looks likely. Im convinced we have a big December incoming based on this.

For late November 8 days out thats really good, though for my area it’s probably more like 15%. A scenario where I rain and West of the river gets buried with a foot is very realistic. The mild Atlantic Ocean often screws us closer to the coast in these early season events, even with a perfect setup. The fact that we even have something to track this early shows how good the pattern is.

Yeah I’m not going to jump the gun this time. The EPS just shifted from a low in Wisconsin to slightly offshore in one run. 8 days out is a long time in weather, and they seem to struggle even more during seasonal transitions and La Niña events (especially stronger ones). I’ll likely wait for someone else to start the thread for this one or make one when it’s 3 or 4 days out if the low is still there by then.

Those positive NAO solutions can be thrown out the window looking at the ensemble guidance for late November and early December.

It started off as a cutter but is turning into a miller B on the models now.

Hell yeah, this threat won’t pan out (like many here said, I jumped the gun creating this thread) but the overnight guidance trended towards a Miller B for the next threat. The EPS is showing early and aggressive secondary redevelopment, with a low strong enough to potentially create its own cold air.

The blocking isn’t all that strong so the secondary redevelopment being too late for us makes sense, but on the surface the Euro and EPS are plowing the low into Wisconsin like there is no block whatsoever.

The models have a cutter but with North Atlantic blocking I don’t buy that. I don’t see why the low would just ram into the block and ignore it, that doesn’t make sense to me. The blocking argues for the low to run into a brick wall and then transfer off the coast before undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, aided by the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean (Miller B).

that’s a lot of blocking

Same here, the snow took me by surprise. Nice little early season event

I’m all in

Yeah the whole polar vortex split, SSW stuff is overhyped a lot. I fell victim to buying in quite a few times over the past few years. Even if it splits favorably we need the polar vortex to not recover. Sometimes it splits and then just recovers immediately so nothing really happens for us. What causes the vortex to recover fast sometimes where as other times it says shattered into pieces for an extended period of time?

The surface maps don’t really show anything but the h5 looks interesting on the EPS.

I could be wrong, but Im not really buying the suppression due to how far west the western ridge is centered at looking at the h5. The Ideal location for nor’easters is centered over Montana, and this ridge is centered west of Washington. If anything wouldn't that suggest that the threat is an inland runner with rain (especially considering the minimal blocking)? If the aggressive and amplified northern stream digs and phases in, wouldn’t that prevent suppression? It looks like if something does happen it would be driven by the northern energy. You bring up a good point about the Wednesday storm though, I wasn’t really thinking of that. We need the northern energy to delay more to give the SE ridge more time to rebuild.