George001

Now that would be an analog worth getting excited about. Below normal temps, above normal snow with a historic blizzard in February. Unfortunately, the moderate 1.3 ONI peak and modoki structure doesn’t look like a great match for the 2023-2024 winter. A good estimate right now is 2.1-2.3 ONI (super). The 65-66 nino was a super nino like this one will be, so that may be a better analog.

I hate to be that guy, but isn’t the super nino + strong -NAO combo not that good for us? I would be concerned about the mid Atlantic cashing in more than us in that pattern. That is actually the biggest reason why I am so pessimistic about this winter. Even if the forcing is somewhat favorable and I am wrong about the NAO, the “good” analogs (1957-1958, 2009-2010, 2015-2016) do not impress me at all. I would take 2017-2018 or 2021-2022 over any of those winters. I haven’t checked the exact numbers, but I would bet March 2018 or Jan 2022 alone were snowier than the entire 2009-2010 winter here, and possibly 2015-2016 as well.

Yeah, it looks on track for at least 3 months (OND maybe, NDJ very likely) with a peak >2.0 (super).

I don’t know if it should be considered a moderate El Niño right now. On the latest weeklies, Region 4 is moderate, region 3.4 is strong, and regions 3 and 1.2 are super. When 2 of the 4 ENSO regions are super and the other 2 are moderate and strong, I would think that it makes more sense to consider it a strong nino than a moderate one, even if it is considered moderate officially. Kind of like how last winter the nina was on record as a low end moderate Nina, but practically it was acting like a strong nina (even super at times, especially during the early part of winter). Off topic, but I’m not sure why there is an official threshold for super nino but not super nina. I would think that if super ninos can occur, super ninas can too. The 2010-2011 La Niña had an MEI reading of -2.5 (super) at its peak. Even in the winter, the MEI was -1.9 (strong) in December and January, and in October and November it was -2.1 (super). Last winter the Nina was only moderate, but the MEI peaked at -2.1 (super) and was still -1.5 (strong) as late as October and November. Of course, just like with ONI, just looking at the MEI alone isn’t enough. It felt like last winter acted like a strong Nina for the most part, and even super at times. The 2010-2011 la nina in my opinion should be considered straight up super if that’s actually a thing.

Last year was a great winter……. for Torch Tiger. Hopefully this winter is colder.

There is evidence suggesting that the Pinatubo eruption was linked to the strongly positive NAO winters of 91-92, 92-93, and 93-94. Other factors are unknown (Siberian snowcover, etc), but the known factors right now favor a strongly positive NAO. The solar correlation is weaker, but the correlation between the solar cycle peak and the NAO is a positive one, especially during Feb. Is a negative NAO possible? Of course, but right now, strongly a strongly positive NAO is favored. The last time we had a solar peak was I believe was the 2014-2015 timeframe. A possible wrinkle is that this solar cycle isn’t as strong as that one was, but the correlation worked well then with Feb 2015 being a strongly +NAO month. Sure, a negative NAO is possible. Maybe I am overlooking something that I didn’t even consider that is a stronger driver than either of those things (solar and volcano). It’s possible, but right now I am leaning towards a strongly positive NAO winter (especially Feb). If I’m wrong, I’ll own up to it and admit it.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2021JD035519 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-241/acp-2021-241.pdf These are a couple good sources for the link between the NAO index and solar activity. What I got from it was that the correlation was strongest in Feb, but where exactly we are in the solar cycle has a big impact on how strong the correlation is as well as what month. It’s not a super strong indicator, but based on how close we are to the peak of the solar cycle, I would favor a positive NAO during Feb. It isn’t perfect, but correlation between sunspot activity during the peak of the solar cycle correctly predicted the NAO index during the last peak. The last peak was I believe around 2015, and Feb 2015 the NAO was strongly positive. It’s more complicated than that, but when combining the severe volcanic activity with the sunspot activity, I like that analog for this Feb (polar region, not pacific).

09-10 could be a decent analog with continued strengthening in nino 4, but 72-73 and 91-92 are better matches for the polar domain. I like 91-92 in particular for the polar region, which was impacted by the Pinatubo eruption. The issue is people see the 2009-2010 analog and assume it means 50 inches of snow for DC is coming, when that isn’t what it means. The pacific pattern could be similar, but variation in the polar domain would lead to different results. The high solar activity also is a +NAO signal. For 02-03, I don’t see that as an analog because of El Niño strength (moderate). Even if the nino 4 region continues to take off, 2015-2016 is a better analog for nino strength (super) and it is not a modoki like 02-03 was.

The primary analogs for the winter of 2024: Key factors: Enso state: El Niño Enso strength: Super Polar region: unknown, but lean is +NAO due to the increasing solar activity and recent volcanic activity. Pacific region: This is developing like an “old school” nino, starts in the east and moves west over time. The flip side of this is the nino will likely peak earlier in the eastern regions, and later in the western regions. I am leaning towards the peak being “too late” for eastern snow lovers, but the possibility of an earlier than expected peak needs to be watched. The PDO is expected to stay negative, but the region is rapidly warming. It likely averages in the neutral/slightly negative range, but could reach that via a moderate negative anomaly in Dec, slightly negative anomaly in Jan, and slightly positive in Feb and Mar. Atlantic region: SSTs are warmer than average. Top analogs: 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 2015-2016, 1997-1998, 1925-1926. decent analogs: 1957-1958, 2009-2010, 1991-1992, 2019-2020 The best analog right now is 72-73, a classical east based (EP) El Niño coming off a La Niña, super peak, averaged -PDO for DJF. Polar region was a strong +NAO, which I believe this winter has a higher probability than usual for due to the unusual volcanic activity and solar activity. That is why I like 1991-1992, that winter was less driven by ENSO than I think this one will be (strong, not super), but it was a strong +NAO winter, which has been blamed on the extreme volcanic activity (Pinataubo eruption). This also was linked to the raging +NAO the following winters (1992-1993 and 1993-1994 were strong +NAO winters).

Doesn’t look cold and snowy to me, looks like the typical super nino induced mild PAC air flooding the country pattern.

I don’t think it’s quite as bad inland, but for my area I think it will be another dud winter. Super nino sucks here.

El Niño has entered strong territory. Super is all but inevitable!

So what are we thinking here? Nino goes strong by early September and super by mid October? Or do you guys think it waits until November to become a super nino? The strength of the nino has been increasing rapidly over the past few weeks, in line with the more aggressive guidance.

I’m starting to think there is an outside shot it goes super by the last week of September. It’s unlikely, but with how rapid the increase has been over the past couple weeks if that continues it can’t be ruled out.

With the super nino coming I could see a similar scenario to 2009-2010 if there is a lot of blocking. Probably a warmer version, being that the nino will be quite a bit stronger and climate change, but same general idea. Not quite 2009-2010 level, but decently AN snowfall departures in the mid Atlantic while my area in SNE is well BN.

I posted that in the wrong sub forum lol, where I live it was the exact opposite. Boxing Day 2010 was a huge blizzard in SNE, and so was snowquestor. 2009-2010 was the heart wrencher for us. You guys in the mid atl got buried while we got skunked via a couple storms hitting a brick wall and sliding OTS from the blocking, and then we had the snowicane which had that almost straight N/S gradient. It’s interesting how 2009-2010 were almost the exact opposite, 2009-2010 buried you guys and skunked us while 2010-2011 buried us and skunked you guys.

I agree, I’m thinking a good 4 months of super nino conditions. October, November, December, and January. Even Feb is possible if the nino is slower to weaken than expected which happens sometimes.

What would you say a reasonable lower and upper end outcome for this nino is now based on the latest developments? I am expecting another bump in the guidance next month based on how aggressive the warming has been recently. I would say the probability of this being a strong nino at the peak is rapidly declining. Super is looking more and more likely.

Damn, people get really passionate about enso. I get being excited about the developing El Niño, but there’s no need to be at each others throats over a difference of opinion ya know? Strong and super are both still on the table. Weak is not, and I would take a moderate peak off the table as well now. The nino is already in high end moderate territory but there is still some unknown to how strong it will get at the peak. I would say the range of outcomes is +1.8 at the low end to +2.6 at the high end (I’m leaning towards us meeting in the middle at +2.2, a solid super peak). It is weather after all, and the one thing I learned from my years of tracking is I don’t know shit. That’s part of the fun of tracking, it’s so unpredictable.

2010-2011>>>>>>>>2009-2010, It’s not even close.

Super by October?

That is true, even the best get things wrong sometimes. That said, I still give Raindance full credit for last winter because he went really aggressive and forecasted near record warmth for my area with below normal snow, and that is what happened. Im not saying the NAO doesn’t matter, but the past few years taught me that the pacific is more important for my area than the Atlantic. I’d weight it something like 80% pacific 20% Atlantic. North Atlantic blocking “ups the ante” and leads to strong slow moving storms with loads of precip, but if the pacific doesn’t cooperate it’s just going to be a lot of rain. The pacific pattern is what determines our temp profiles. I’ll take a quick mover with arctic air in place over a slow moving marginal bomb reliant on “creating its own cold air” any day! I’ve been burned by taking the cheese on the whole “it will create its own cold” thing a million times over the past few years.

He is definitely warm biased (but so is the climate to be fair), but he knows his shit. He just likes warmer weather, there isn’t anything wrong with that. When it comes to seasonal forecasts though, Raindance is the guy to listen to due to his track record. His preliminary forecast has most of New England (especially coastal SNE) with below average snowfall. My area he has at 60% of average. With the super nino -PDO combo in place that makes a lot of sense, historically that is a really unfavorable pattern for us. Super ninos are warm everywhere, but the reason they are so terrible in New England vs the mid Atlantic is with the juiced STJ you get more Miller As rather than Miller Bs. Those can be good up here, but often we are in the screw zone in those storms due to the best dynamics being to the south (load blown southwest), and stronger ones will often hug the coast or even run inland a bit, which is when our eastern longitude screws us. A good example of this Miller A coastal SNE screw job is the 2010 snowicane, big rainstorm in Boston while NYC gets buried with a 2ft blizzard. If you have too much blocking, they bury the mid Atlantic with ridiculous amounts of snow and then go OTS or scrape us. The thing is though, I would not be panicking at all if I lived in the mid Atlantic. Those same Miller As that screw us can and often are really good for the mid Atlantic, and the mid Atlantic only needs one big storm to exceed climo (very common in super ninos). It all depends on where you live. I just happen to live in an area that does poorly in super ninos so I am pessimistic about this winter for my area.

What’s the correlation coefficient for this?

Name one super nino that had above average snow in SNE, mid Atlantic sure but SNE and New England does poorly in super ninos due to big storms missing south (raging STJ is better for mid Atlantic, northern stream driven Miller Bs are better for SNE). Also, mild pacific air flooding the nation with warmth makes the overall pattern unfavorable for a run of smaller storms and sustained snowpack.