George001

Update: I’m feeling pretty good about my high end strong nino call (1.9 ONI peak seems likely). The storm track so far has been to our west, and based on how December has gone I’m feeling pretty good about that as well. There are a few things I got wrong though. One was that I expected the PDO to increase, and it actually decreased more. That could result in a more unfavorable pacific later in the winter. However, it looks like I also got the arctic pattern very wrong. I said I expected a stronger than normal PV, and a split is highly unlikely. There is now cross guidance support for a polar vortex split, and trying to be as objective as I can I’m not going to ignore that. I don’t think it will make much of a difference for my Dec-Jan forecast, but it very well could for Feb-Mar. The issue is, if we get skunked Jan it will be very difficult to make up the snowfall deficit even if we do get a favorable pattern from the PV split. The pacific is still a concern, and due to this I don’t see the truly high end months like Feb 2015, Jan 2011, Jan 2022, Mar 2018 etc being in the cards. That’s why I am sticking to my 20-30 inch snowfall forecast for the Boston area.

Yeah im feeling a bit better about early Jan than a couple of days ago due to the improved airmass. It’s not an epic Feb 2015/March 2018/Jan 2011 type pattern, but it looks serviceable for at least a bit. After this mild and snowless December I’ll take it.

We didn’t get a blizzard.

Yep, everything is completely normal. Nothing to see here, the average temps in New England being several degrees warmer than 30 years ago is completely irrelevant right? Good ol Wolfie knows more than the scientists who have been studying this shit longer than I’ve been alive.

For fucks sake AGW isn’t something you believe in or don’t. It’s happening now, was happening in 2014-2015, and will continue to happen. I got excited about the pattern last December and thought that the Nina + blocking + AGW enhanced mild ocean temps would enhance snowfall ASSUMING IT WAS COLD ENOUGH. I was wrong, simple as that. Yeah, my predictions last year were dumb and I’ll own that. I’m not forecasting those crazy numbers anymore because I listened to people who know more than I do and learned from my mistakes. Maybe you should do the same thing with AGW, but we both know you and Wolfie won’t. I’m not even going to bother explaining why 100+ inch winters such as 2014-2015 are not inconsistent with AGW. There is no point in trying to reason with you deniers. YOU are the one who is brainwashed, not me.

I mean yeah, if I had more knowledge of meteorology that would certainly help, I’m not denying that. That is why I choose to read and learn from people who know a lot more than I do such as the Pope, Bluewave, Raindance etc. Hell I’m willing to keep and open mind and listen to those who I disagree with but acknowledge know their shit better than I do. You want to listen to someone who understands meteorology rather than a hobbyist who’s still lacking in that area? That’s completely fair, but most of the forecasts I have seen are for an AN temp winter.

I mean it’s a driver (especially given the well AN ocean temps), but is it the main reason why I’m not getting snow this December? No. I’m not getting snow because I live on the coastal plain and our climo sucks in December and it’s a borderline super nino. The +10 anomalies in Canada? It’s one of many drivers. Honestly I would say AGW was a bigger culprit last December. This is just a classic Nino December, and strong nino Decembers tend to suck. 8 consecutive AN winters though? Yeah, that’s AGW related.

Assuming Dec finished +3 AN (which is conservative), if J-M averages -1 BN that takes us to average for Dec-Mar. I don’t need any actual knowledge of meteorology to predict that this winter will finish AN, it’s basic math. Even the more optimistic posters like Brooklyn and Ray understand and acknowledge this. Assuming an equal probability of AN/BN (again this is conservative, as it doesn’t take AGW, and the strong El Niño into account), an average rest of winter will finish AN due to how warm December will end up being.

Yeah, you got me there.

Fair enough, but based on what I’m seeing my opinion is that we are going to be fighting temps for most of this winter. Borderline super nino, strong -PDO, roaring pacific jet, and record low snow cover for our source regions. The Pope brought this up multiple times, but people keep ignoring it. Instead of ignoring him, I am choosing to read and learn from his posts. He knows his shit, and he’s usually right.

Good ol AGW denying Wolfie calling people dummies. Pot calling the kettle black much?

I’m not denying that we can get snow. It absolutely can snow with AN temp anomalies in New England, but you aren’t building a snowpack with this post 2015 temp profile.

Make me bitch

I mean for fucks sake we haven’t had a BN winter since 2014-2015. Looks like we will have a decent chance at a 9th consecutive AN winter.

Not seeing cold air on the long range guidance. Even in the very long range the BN anomalies are confined to the south. NNE is AN.

Nope don’t want to hear anything about it being “delayed”. Either it’s going to happen or it isn’t. If it doesn’t happen when we expected, instead of moving the goalposts it makes sense to just give up and admit to being wrong.

Absolutely, significantly more aggressive action needs to be taken to combat climate change. People bitch about “alarmists”, but the reality is that the earth is warming at a rate in line with the most aggressive climate models. People tend to be short sighted. The climate crisis is a consequence of the pursuit of instant gratification above all else. It’s easier to live in denial than to try to be part of the solution. Near-term sacrifices will have to be made to combat climate change, and people aren’t willing to accept that. I get it, instant gratification feels good. But in the long term, it’s not worth it. It’s not going to be good for the economy at first if we take these drastic actions, and it’s going to be a major inconvenience in many of our personal lives. However, that is not a valid excuse to refuse to take action. The inconvenience we will experience in the near term due to extremely aggressive regulations is nothing compared to the damage caused by AGW in the long run.

Reading your blog, those of us who forecasted mild below normal snow winters actually weren’t too different from some of your analogs, and we were actually aligned for December. I agree with you on January being an inflection point, that is when winter will show its hand. Seasonably cold (+1 AN or below) with AN precip for Jan would get it done. +3 AN and above average precip? That would be bad news for the coastal plain in SNE.

I have never been too optimistic about December, but I haven’t actually seen a ton of hype like last December. I went back and looked through the posts of several posters who are calling for a big pattern change late Dec-early Jan to see if there was any moving of the goalposts, and it has been consistent. Once the goalposts start moving that’s a very bad sign. It looks like the pattern change actually will happen, now the question is whether it will change to a good pattern or just a different bad pattern.

20-25th still looking good for a large scale pattern change?

It certainly would be an upgrade over a lot of previous 1st round picks we drafted

I’ll take this look over shit pacific + big blocking any day. If we see a look similar to this inside 7 days, I’ll start getting excited. I’m not surprised that the big blocking that was hyped up for December didn’t work out for the coastal plain.

Yeah snowman19 absolutely knows his shit, he just likes warmer weather.

My mid Dec update is that I am not excited about the pattern for the rest of the month for 2 reasons. One, the parade of storms entering the pacific northwest favors a storm track is NW of the region. The second reason is it is simply too warm. No matter how much blue there is at 500mb, the surface is still AN on the long range guidance. Last year’s abomination of a “winter” taught me that no matter how “good” the pattern looks at 500mb, if there isn’t any cold air it won’t lead to snow. It’s really that simple, the #1 ingredient for east coast blizzards is true arctic air. If we don’t have that, we are threading the needle or hoping for a very low probability outcome. It’s possible we sneak in a couple of inches with the follow up deal after the massive inland runner, but the pattern doesn’t really support anything more than a minor event there, and even that is going to be tough to get. The whole relying on storms to create their own cold air thing just isn’t going to cut it, especially in December when the SSTs are extremely mild. That’s why I haven’t been posting much here this month, I’m not jumping on board until I see sustained (1+ week) -5 or lower anomalies on the models. By mid Jan, that reduces to -3 to -2. In late Jan- mid Feb, normal temps with north based atlantic blocking is good enough. If I see that on the models, I will become a lot more optimistic. For now though, it is a typical strong/super nino December pattern. Overall, I would say based on how things have gone the past few weeks and what the extended guidance shows, im expecting we get shut out for the rest of the month. Even the last week of Dec, the pattern does not look good. However, there are some interesting things happening in the stratosphere. That is the main reason I’m not sounding the alarms for a total rat. The forecasted weakening of the polar vortex looks to be for real. Based on previous polar vortex events, I’m expecting an unfavorable pattern for a couple weeks after the disruption. This would take us to mid January. I said that if we get to early Jan with nothing promising on the horizon it’s time to panic, and I stand by that since by then we will know more about how this polar vortex event will play out. Hopefully the polar vortex cooperates and doesn’t go to the other side of the globe.

I’m headed up to Jay peak soon so I’m happy to see this.