George001

I think people are making the mistake of thinking we need December to be great because it’s La Niña so the second half of winter is guaranteed to suck. I made that mistake in my winter forecast with February. December I did expect to finish milder than average but one big storm at the end of the month, still has time for that to happen. Maybe December and early January are worse than my winter forecast had, but mid Jan and Feb are much better. That’s what the implication would be if there is a polar vortex disruption a month or month and a half later than I expected in my winter forecast. I believe that’s what Ray had in his, a polar vortex event later in the winter but remaining strong early on.

Extremely low, but it shows just how quickly we can make up for a slow start. 2012-2013 was mild until early Feb. A 2014-2015 is extremely unlikely but a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 is just as unlikely. December usually sucks until late month anyways, so we are burning shit climo with this hostile pattern. January February and March could still be epic.

The current pattern is absolute garbage but we can still get a really good winter. 2014-2015 sucked until late Jan when all hell broke loose and we started getting blizzard after blizzard.

Even if December is cooked there’s still 3 more months

It looks bad but aren’t there good signs with the MJO?

The CFS looks really good for Jan and Feb. not a ton of North Atlantic blocking but there is ridging out west, and it looks like the polar vortex while it doesn’t split or anything its on our side of the globe, and is displaced a bit to the south. I’m glad to see there are signs of the long range looking better after the upcoming mild spell.

There’s a reason why I never use the gfs for my forecasts. The Euro/Navy/Canadian blend never really was on board for this one. Gfs was on its own, so I’m not surprised it was wrong. Right now the pattern sucks, hopefully things change with the MJO going into phase 7 and 8.

Yeah the gfs is a garbage model, I never bought that this was a legitimate threat with the lack of blocking. We need blocking to slow the flow down.

The flow is too fast, we need blocking to slow it down. Just not going to get a strong storm in this pattern, the gfs foot+ of snow solution was always a low probability.

Get well soon, I hope everything is ok with you

Wouldnt a lot of the snow on the gfs be sleet at least in eastern mass? There looks to be a warm layer in there 850-925mb. I don’t think even verbatim that would be 18 inches in Boston like the snow maps say.

Hopefully the Euro Canadian and Navy come on board tonight

Yeah I’m talking about the stratospheric polar vortex, I hate seeing that over the North Pole.

Yeah that’s not a good pattern, unfortunately that does make sense with the polar vortex deepening. I’d like to see signs of it weakening before January.

I’m not super optimistic about this event. I hope I’m wrong but looking at the pattern it seems like there is very little room for error.

Maybe something like 1-3/2-4 inches before a changeover to freezing rain then rain type deal?

I’m not a believer in this storm for my area. I believe it will rain, not snow due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking preventing the storm from going inland and flooding us with mild air. Unfortunately, that means Metfan will also get rain. I hope I’m as wrong as I was last time, but the pattern doesn’t look great for this one.

The models had the polar vortex weakening in December, but now they are deepening it during the winter. That’s a bad sign, as the guidance chances shouldn’t I adjust my forecasts accordingly? I hate seeing the polar vortex deepen in January.

I’m ready to panic about the long term winter outlook. I’m bailing on my winter forecast, based on the long term outlook with the polar vortex continuing to deepen into January I don’t see how we get over 70 inches of snow this winter, which is what I forecasted.

My winter forecast is going to BUST! I know I was calling for a big winter and pattern flip, but the recent guidance has changed with a polar vortex that is expected to deepen and remain stronger than average into mid Jan. The long range outlook for winter looks like shit right now, I hate to be an alarmist but I dont see how we are going to get North Atlantic blocking with a polar vortex this deep. Looking at the European guidance, the polar vortex isn’t consolidated over Eastern Canada, it’s over the North Pole. I’m very disappointed with the lack of North Atlantic blocking on the models, and honestly I’m really pissed off. I have been looking forward to a severe 2+ feet Boston blizzard this winter, I thought we would have 2 or 3 of em but now it’s looking like we won’t even get 1, last time my area had a severe 2 foot blizzard was March of 2018.

True

Yuck I hope that’s wrong that is a horrible pattern for snow in New England

We need blocking, I hate the way the pattern looks on the European guidance long range. No blocking and a massive trough out west. Hopefully that changes soon, but things aren’t looking great for early December. I’d like to see signs of a pattern change on the models over the next couple of weeks though.

Yuck I hope it changes soon 2018-2019 sucked

I’m glad that the gfs is the model showing both storm threats missing and the Euro has a Miller B nor’easter. I’d rather have the Euro on my side than the gfs. I do want to see the Canadian and Navy, and European and Canadian ensembles come on board as well before I really buy into this threat however.