George001

Unfortunately for our major storm threat next week the euro doesn’t even have a low anymore. Im not going to give up on an eastern mass blizzard just yet though, the evolution of next weeks storm on the models is one you would see in a fast and progressive flow, which doesn’t fit the pattern we will be in. I don’t buy the fast flow at all with a ridge that amplified out west. When the models go against the pattern, they are usually wrong. For example the models were showing a huge blizzard in late February, but the flow was fast and the pattern did not support that so it made sense to disregard those solutions. For the storm threat next week, the models that are showing the northern and southern branches staying separate and everything “rolling over” instead of slowing down and phasing should be disregarded, because the pattern does not support a fast flow. The pattern supports a slow and amplified flow with the northern stream digging farther south and phasing rather than just rolling east and squashing our storm. Does this mean a blizzard is guaranteed? No, although I do believe a massive blizzard will retrograde back in and crush eastern mass with feet of snow, that isn’t the only outcome supported by the pattern. A close miss where the storm is strong but develops too late and crushes Nova Scotia or downeast Maine, whiffing eastern mass also fits the pattern. However, the runs that don’t even have a low are total bs and don’t fit the pattern at all. In my opinion the models are going to show a miss until like 3 or 4 days out, then will come to their senses and start showing a strong low retrograding back in and slamming eastern mass with a blizzard. The models do this a lot, they lose storms in the mid range and then bring them back in the short range.

The reason why people who live in eastern mass shouldn’t give up on the storm threat next week is that despite the fact that the pattern favors a large offshore ocean storm, we are pretty much sticking out into the ocean which helps us with these late developing nor’easters. The models aren’t quite there yet, looking at the upper levels it looks like the storm initially goes out to sea and the models are trying to phase the northern branch in, tilt the trough negatively and hook the low back in. Right now it’s just a bit too progressive to hook the low back in, but the overall pattern suggests that there is room for a cleaner phase and for the trough to go negative a little earlier, which would allow for the low to initially go to bermuda and then retrograde back in and slam eastern New England with a blizzard. I have seen several posts indicating that the overall longwave pattern is too far east to allow this low to come to the benchmark, which I agree with. The low isn’t coming to the benchmark, it’s going to likely be at least 100-200 miles southeast (probably more). The low will be tapping into incredible amounts of gulf moisture as the low develops to our south, and then once the northern stream phases in and the trough tilts negatively over the Atlantic Ocean, the low will get hooked back in to around what I believe to be 200-300 miles southeast of the benchmark. That’s out to sea! That means we aren’t getting anything right? In my opinion, that is wrong. My analogs are March 8th 2013 and March 13th 2018, both which were large ocean storms that went “out to sea”, hundreds of miles southeast of the benchmark. However, these storms had a similar longwave pattern with the unusual scenario where the storm fully phased over the Atlantic, and the trough tilted negatively which allowed the storm to retrograde from east to west, loop, and stall around 200 to even 500 miles southeast of the benchmark. While the low was out to sea, this unusual retrograding motion driven by the phasing and negatively tilted trough allowed for copious amounts of warm March gulf and Atlantic moisture from the rapidly strengthening offshore low to be rammed into the cold dry air in eastern mass. This would allow for heavy bands of snow to back in, strengthen, and rot over eastern mass for a long duration snowstorm. I know the models don’t look great right now but the pattern is screaming surprise early spring blizzard in eastern mass, and the euro and navy got better overnight, as the northern branch is phasing in earlier and the trough is going negative earlier, allowing the low to hook back in a bit (not enough yet, but closer than it looks at the surface). It’s important to keep in mind the navy has a progressive bias so seeing it as the second farthest west model is a sign that the models are too far east with the low.

Right now for me I would say this winter was a c+/b-, but after March I think it will be more like a B+/A-. The euro is already starting to bring the storm back, we are currently in the phase where models lose the storm and slowly start bringing it back, and then before you know it a blizzard is on our doorstep.

I know things don’t look great for the storm threat next week, but based on the pattern in place I don’t believe the storm will end up getting squashed despite what the models show. In my opinion the low will keep moving west on the models due to how amplified the western ridge is as well as the strong northern stream that has nowhere to go but dig south in this highly amplified and slow flow being shown on the models.

The Canadian is a miss this run, but it did bring the low back.

I know we are 7-8 days out, that’s why I said I’m not writing off the storm. However it’s important to be realistic, when one of the best models we have goes from a near miss with a strong storm just offshore to not even having a low that’s not a shift that can just be ignored. Maybe the Canadian picked up on something it didn’t before, but it could also just be an off run. Also you are wrong about the navy, it’s actually a great model if it’s used correctly. I strongly disagree with what you are saying about the navy. The navy has done a great job with catching onto real threats (2/1/21) and not biting on phantom threats (late jan). The navy does have a southeast bias, but it’s a useful tool. Its a great model in the mid-long range in identifying real vs fantasy storm threats. When the navy is on board for a big storm, even when other guidance is out to sea often it is picking up on something and it is a mistake to ignore that. It is usually saying that the other guidance is wrong and will correct west. On phantom threats, the navy often doesn’t even have a low. On the other hand the gfs, a model that many live and die by is absolutely horrible, it doesn’t even have a consistent bias, it’s just all over the place. It’s absolutely horrible at identifying patterns in the long range, and jumps around in the short range more than any other model. It’s honestly not even worth looking at, I personally don’t use it at all when making my forecasts. When my forecasts bust, if anything it’s because I’m not weighting the navy heavily enough if anything.

Uh oh, the low on the Canadian disappeared! I’m not going to lie, that’s concerning. I’m not going to write the storm off but not what I wanted to see. Hopefully the euro and navy look better tonight.

With a low that strong it could easily still produce even if the low is a bit offshore. March 13th 2018 was a similar setup with a late phase, and the low was in the 970s and about 200 mi se of cape cod. Normally this is too far offshore to produce a huge blizzard. However, in this case the storm was so big that despite being far offshore the precip shield was extremely expansive and we ended up getting a massive blizzard in eastern mass anyways. In my opinion even those 975mb lows would produce due to how big the precip shield will be. That said, the 956mb low over Nantucket would be a historic blizzard, it would likely rival feb 1978 in terms of snow amounts (I’m not calling for that though, pattern supports something more offshore than that).

Yeah yesterday is when they started seeing the low. The Canadian went from way offshore to a blizzard in one run before moving back south some. The risk with this storm is definitely it develops too late and misses everyone, but I like where I’m at with this setup. Eastern New England has a better shot in these types of setups with us having a bit more room for error in regards to how late the storm develops.

The pattern supports a farther west low. At least the models have a low now, just a few days ago they didn’t even have a low. Both the OP runs and ensembles show a whiff but they aren’t far off from something big.

When I look at the setup for this storm I’m thinking a possible March 13th 2018 redux (2 feet of snow, 30 inches in jackpot areas) that was also a later phase that was originally modeled to be out to sea until a couple days before the storm, when the models started bringing the low farther west. When it comes to miller As, in eastern mass my worry is low tracking to far west and bringing rain. However, I don’t see that on the models with the placement of the ridge favoring a more offshore vs inland track of the low. The models have the ridge over Montana, which is great to have if you are looking for east coast cyclogenesis. In my opinion jackpot amounts could exceed 30 inches if things come together. This is the type of pattern that produced March 13th 2018, Jan 4th 2018, Dec 26th 2010, Feb 14th 2015 storms.

Not far from an eastern New England blizzard, all it would take is the northern stream to dive in a bit earlier. That’s not a weak low either despite the late phase. If we can get an earlier phase not only would the low be farther west, the strength of the low would increase as well. A low in the 970s or even 960s isn’t out of the question in a pattern like this.

When looking at the eps for the March 5th-10 timeframe, there is a huge ridge right over Montana, and a piece of the polar vortex in eastern Canada. Based on how amplified and far west that ridge is on the EPS mean as well as the location of the polar vortex at hour 168, I believe that the overall flow will be slow and amplified, increasing the ceiling of the storm. A big one with 2ft+ is absolutely in the cards and has a higher probability than normal based on the pattern in place. The flow on the models is NOT fast like it has been the past few years, and the pac is the best since 2018 during that window. The models do break it down and revert to a fast flow look afterwards with the polar vortex in the North Pole, which would mean the end of winter. However, I made the mistake of cancelling winter 10 days ago when I saw the models had that look for early March, and it turned out to be wrong. I’m not going to make that same mistake again, based on what I have seen in regards to the tropical forcing (MJO), it looks to enter the more favorable phases for western North America ridging, which in turn buckles and slows down the flow, giving the northern stream more room to dig and phase with the southern stream. On some of the more recent model runs the MJO looks to linger in the more favorable phases, which could extend the favorable window for possibly 2 or even 3 more weeks if it cooperates. Im not going to go back and start calling for March 18 just yet though, as be fair the tropical forcing so far this year hasn’t favored a good pacific pattern, so I’m going to be cautious about forecasting a great period after the first week of March. If the MJO does cooperate though, watch out, this March could all of a sudden go from looking like a blowtorch with a PV over the North Pole from weeks 2-4 to very interesting. even if the MJO doesn’t pan out, I could see a scenario where we do get a warm March but with the storm threat at the beginning of the month and maybe one or two more windows with pieces of the Polar Vortex rotating through. That isn’t March 2018 but it’s not March 2012 either, its more in the middle, and in New England an a medicore to even a slightly below average pattern can still produce.

Yeah I don’t know why this period is being written off. It’s a legitimate threat that is supported by the pattern, and it’s not like climo is super unfavorable either. It’s early March, which can and does produce winter weather as long as the pattern in place isn’t extremely hostile.

I just looked at the models and out of nowhere, they now have a low! Is this pattern March 2018 good? No, the models don’t show that yet. However, the pattern does look more favorable for major east coast cyclogenesis than a typical March pattern. The pattern quickly becomes more amplified towards the March 5th- March 10th time frame, which gives the northern branch more room to dig and phase with the southern branch, allowing for east cyclogenesis to occur. The models were not showing this yesterday, but on today’s run of the Canadian it shows exactly this, the amplified flow allows for the northern branch to dig and phase with the southern branch off the Jersey coast. As the energy transfers off the jersey coast, this phasing of energy allows for the storm to not only bomb out, but it also closes off and slows down, which leads to a slow moving Miller b blizzard in eastern mass. In my opinion this is a highly plausible solution based on the pattern in place, and cannot be discounted.

I’m up to 16 buns now lol

I disagree, at least for east coast storms the Canadian is one of the best OP models, up there with the Euro and Navy. The Gfs and Icon are the garbage models not worth looking at.

Yep, this run the timing is off, but if we can get just a bit more northern stream interaction that will help with the cold air, increase the strength of the low, and bring it farther west. On this run it’s mostly southern stream until a tiny piece of energy from the northern branch phases in last min. All it takes is a small increase in strength as well as a slightly farther south dig from the northern branch and things get very interesting.

I thought the models were trending in the right direction with the fast flow issue going away and the pieces of the polar vortex breaking off and delivering cold shots to the east. I know the models don’t show anything but I would rather see a good pattern on the models with no low than a garbage pattern with a low. Get the pattern first and the lows will sometimes pop up sometimes out of nowhere.

It’s understandable why you thought it was over, I did too, I even made a post ending winter. However the latest guidance is showing a pattern favorable for intense cyclogenesis starting as far south as the Carolina coast. With a more amplified flow, there is more room for the northern branch and the southern branch of the jet stream to phase. In the pattern the EPS is showing past March 5th, there isn’t energy crashing into the west coast flattening the flow, which would give the northern branch of the jet stream to dig farther south, phase with the southern branch, tilt negatively and come up the coast. When you get a pattern like that especially in March with the enhanced thermal gradient, watch out for extreme cyclogenesis (a good example of this is March 1993).

Is this just me being a weenie looking at the maps through snow goggles, or does the EPS actually look decent for the March 5th-8th timeframe for a storm potential? I may have given up on winter too soon, during that time frame on the EPS it shows a more amplified flow. It has a big ridge on the west coast instead of the east, and due to the amplified flow that doesn’t roll east and bring warm pacific air with it. Instead, as the EPS approaches the March 8th timeframe, the amplified flow allows cold air to filter into the eastern US straight from Canada, with the freezing line at the upper levels getting as far south as North Carolina. That’s not pacific air, that air is coming straight from the North Pole. While there will be a big warm up in early March with a ridge in the east and the polar vortex over the North Pole, the models are now breaking a piece of the polar vortex off which delivers a blast of cold air. Unlike last week where it looked like the vortex was going to sit in the North Pole for all of March, it looks like the polar vortex might cooperate after all. Yes, the EPS doesn’t actually show a storm during that timeframe, but it shows a great pattern that must be watched for a potential late season blizzard with possibly even more threats behind it if the pattern sets in before we warm up for good. This pattern really excites me, when I see pieces of the polar vortex breaking off and moving into eastern Canada like that instead of sitting at the North Pole, it makes me think cold air will not be a huge issue. When you combine this more favorable polar vortex development with a more cooperative pacific, allowing the flow to amplify and slow down, this indicates increased chances of a slow moving blizzard that undergoes cyclogenesis, fueled by the clash of the polar vortex induced cold with the warmer March waters in the gulf and off the southeast coast. Could this lead to Miller As track over us, crush more western areas with a massive blizzard while it rains in eastern mass? Yeah, ptype issues is definitely a risk, especially with the clash of Arctic and tropical air occurring as off the Carolinas. Cyclogenesis that occurs this early and far south while great for a monster sub 970 mb low also brings the risk of the low tucking in to much and raining over eastern Mass. At least the pattern is favorable, and compared to how things looked a week ago, that’s all I can ask for.

this map is more let’s make a run at 70s and 80s than snow.

Yeah I see where I went wrong now, the higher MEI values were in April, up from -.8 in March. Going by MEI that Nina was weak, ONI it was weak borderline moderate during the WINTER of 2018 lol

It has -1.29 as the peak on both your chart and this one, though it peaked in March/April.

The winter of 2017-2018 was actually a moderate La Niña, it peaked at -1.0 degrees Celsius going by ONI, and -1.3 degrees celcius going by MEI. By MEI the 2017-2018 La Niña was actually high end moderate, borderline strong.