George001
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Everything posted by George001
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The latest hrrr has .6-.7 more QPF for eastern mass, that’s on top of the snow that has already fallen. Ratios have reportedly been as high as 15:1 or 20:1, so extrapolating that for my area we would have 9-14 more inches on top of the 4 or so inches we already had (last I checked). That would result in a 13-18 inch storm total if correct.
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Did the strength of the low increase more than expected?
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Foxborough area
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Holy shit
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The HRRR runs that only gave my area 4-5 inches of snow last night are going to be WRONG! I’m getting BURIED!!! Gotta be at least 3-4 inches already and massive flakes. The TV mets were saying when we wake up at sunrise there wouldn’t be a ton of snow on the ground. Am I going to get over a foot?
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Thats very interesting how there were three lows earlier and now there are only 2, looks like one of the lows to the east absorbed the other one. I could be wrong but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that just after what appears to be a low absorption event the radar starts blowing up off the NJ coast. I read that this convection off the NJ coast is occurring a couple hours earlier than modeled by the NAM.
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Regardless of what happens that’s really damn cool, 3 lows! If even one low becomes dominant and absorbs the others this could get really interesting. -
Good question I have absolutely no idea, it looks like there are 3 lows. I’ve never seen anything like it!
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Maybe not, we will find out tomorrow. I feel like this one is going to be better than my other forecasts have been though.
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He’s right, it’s a nowcast. Models have the right idea but even small initialization errors would lead to major changes. Miller Bs are notoriously difficult to forecast.
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I gotta learn how to make my own maps
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A snow map I saw on twitter, looks better than these convection chasing models that have barely .5 QPF even in eastern mass. I agree with this map.
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Ok I probably shouldn’t have said the eastern low won’t be real at all, its there but weaker then expected, satellite looks better than the models do. There is still a chance that the western low will take over and absorb the eastern low.
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We still don’t know if that eastern low thing will even be real. The upside is still there, we will find out in a few hours.
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the nam has initialization errors, too strong with the eastern low and too weak with the western one to begin with.
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Biggest positive busts I can think of that happened recently were the Super Bowl storm last year, March 14 2018 blizzard, one early Feb 2016 and March 2019.
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March 8 2013? I don’t know exactly what happened, but I read that the eastern low got absorbed by the western one or something weird like that happened. Anyways that storm I was forecast to get 2-4, got 20.
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Is that a realistic possibility if the eastern low is absorbed by the western one, causing the western low to not only become dominant but to drastically strengthen?
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What would happen if the eastern low gets absorbed by the western low as a result of the trough sharpening up and going negatively tilted earlier then expected, causing the bigger low to the west to eat the smaller one?
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Yep, going to be fun to track this one.
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The strength of the western low is 1008 mb right now, 4mb stronger than the NAM had it. The eastern low is also weaker, I’m not entirely sure what that means, but it’s probably a good sign that the storm as a whole will be stronger and more west. I hope so anyways.
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My forecast of 8-12 iso 12-16 from a few days ago hasn’t changed yet and won’t, I’m sticking with my guns. Based on the storm over performing down south, if this busts I think it’s going to be a little too conservative.
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Looks like the precip shield is more expansive then expected
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The TV mets and NWS have increased their forecasts in my area today. The NAM looks like it’s having issues with the convection and it still drops 8-10 inches of snow in eastern mass. Imagine if that went away completely, it looks like models are strengthening the more tucked low than the one outside the benchmark.
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Just a couple adjustments away? Like the sound of that!
