-
Posts
5,203 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
-
Hey all, for my climate near the ground class I would love if someone could remind me of the name of that one prominent frost hollow near Snowshoe I think.
-
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
I think the main divergence is in if we can get the coastal to help us out. The 18z Euro shows a solution where we get pretty much no help from the coastal besides aiding in some moisture fetch and instead rely on the H5 dynamics to get any sort of snowfall. Meanwhile, the other camp of the GFS and CMC instead have the coastal prominently help out the H5 max through aiding in lift, moisture transport, and even cold air through the CCB. Is a bit of a egg and chicken game too where a stronger H5 vortmax is more likely to capture/induce a more favorable surface low position. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Big jump in number of members with at least an inch of snow. Up from 30-40% to 60-70% -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
An underrated aspect of the high end scenario runs is how this type of storm would go a decent way in starting to alleviate the drought our area is experiencing. Additionally, I feel that its been a while since we've seen a true photogenic paste bomb storm which sticks to everything. Hopefully this can be the one. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
This is completely true but with that sound snow would be coming down. Look at that lift in the DGZ and it saturated. Agree that accumulation will be hurt but it wouldn't have any problem sticking to grass. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Beautiful occlusion as the low moves out to sea -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Snow ending for all but Delmarva. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Can see the dipole low form in response to the best H5 diffluence being over the coast. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Placed right under the left exit quadrant of the jet streak -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Quite the nice H5 and surface low panel -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
No matter what it is a hit. Now its time to see the upside. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
H5 vort at hour 93 seems to support a tuck -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Surface is low is both notably stronger and focused more westward at hour 87. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SnowenOutThere replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
GFS appears to be coming in with a deeper H5 low. Now just need to see if it can 1. induce cyclogenesis soon enough 2. capture it -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Wait and see what'll happen. I don't really care to synoptically analyze this like I did with our December storms and January event because unfortunately the more likely outcome as of now is no snow. Most ens keep the possibility of an inch of snow somewhere in the 40-60% range which frankly shows this isn't worth getting excited over. Just need to pray that the H5 pass trends further south or west depending on the model to capture the surface low in the ideal spot. Nothing we can do but hurry up and wait. -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Both have Charlottesville only gaining snow run to run. #Trend #Snowtown -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
With this setup maybe we have so many opposing ways this storm can go wrong that they end up canceling each other out -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
I hope ships avoid that blob of FGEN or risk getting sucked up to the 700mb layer -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
From my brief analysis the issue is that the H5 jumps east a bit which prevents the surface low from retrograding near Chesapeake and crushing us. Don't quite know why this happens but I'm not too worried about the specific outcomes till later this week. Was very close. -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Can see how you get the dynamics that jump east with the coastal -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
H5 captures and stacks with surface low here -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Now thats how you do a CCB -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
CMC will be playing the thermals game with a closed 925mb low off the NC coast trying to pull in cold air. Should get it done. -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
CMC will be a vort pass over out latitude -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
SnowenOutThere replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not really! I'm saying that this run is probably further off of a real blizzard than some of its runs yesterday. The mechanism that allowed for us to get near 6 inches of snow is different than the mechanism that would promote a blizzard. Yes, the two are linked, but we would need a dramatic change with the H5 low capturing the surface low instead of simply providing upper level diffluence which promotes lift of the moisture fetch from the Atlantic!
