SnowenOutThere

The areas riding the mixing line are gonna make out like bandits considering the forcing and huge flakes

It’s a bit of a yikes to cut amounts in half and those still be optimistic. It’s not the Mets fault because anywhere north of where the mix line set up would cash in but man there will be some angry people tomorrow

We will not be the only city to have a Boxing Day disaster after today

So far it is still all sleet as a lull sets up over NYC proper. It’s reaching into unmitigated disaster territory if it doesn’t flip back soon.

Still all sleet in upper east Manhattan

Switched back to snow sleet and the Long Island radar shows the snow line collapsing south…

@Ji My god it’s all sleet. 10 minutes of parachutes then now full on ice blasting. Everyone please pour one out for the NWS 8.4 inch prediction as this may be a historic bust.

Upper east side Manhattan

My god it’s just dumping sleet pour one out for every single NYC forecast

Just wait for the main bands to push in and it’ll be fine

Hasn’t been snowing for almost 30 minutes in east Manhattan lmao

Being completely honest that sub forum sucks so bad compared to ours it’s insane. We have 3x times the quality posters just wish we would get some snow more often

Dude this was never DCs storm check my post on page one. Even nyc is probably gonna get inside subsidence and completely miss our 8.4 inch prediction from the NWS

Insane signature for areas northwest of NYC, myself looks to get in that popcorn convective style precip instead of that nice band

Looks like we can see the areas of lift setting up via the spc mesoanalysis page At the 850-700mb layer we can see where the main band will probably set up over Long Island into NY state. Meanwhile higher up in the atmosphere from 700-500mb we see another area setting up slightly to the south which may suggest that NYC proper might not be completely in subsidence.

Coating in upper east side but now in a lull before the main show gets going

I’m excited for this storm, it seems like a couple hours of pure heavy snow which can be rare to get

Sunrise was pretty today

TBH I think NYC and points northeastward will hit a decent bare minimum of like 3-5 inches unless absolutely everything goes wrong. We are really just relying on a strong snow band to hit the region which should be all snow before possible mixing concerns as the 850-700mb temp advection continues.

Hey I’m in NYC for this one

Additionally, from a meteorological perspective this storm looks like it should be fun for the areas that remain snow for the thump. We have an extremely strong area of FGEN lift which should make for a good amount of lift. Only downside is the DGZ is not super large so may be a ton of flakes but not great rates.

Hi y’all I’m a frequent poster in the mid-atl sub forum but due to circumstance I’ll be in NYC (upper east side manhattan) for this storm tomorrow! Excited to see nyc in the snow and practice photography with it.

I didn't start the thread so we all know this storm is over before it even begun. Just kidding! I tried analyzing the difference between the GFS and Euro and while I am able to make some conclusions on what we want to see change there's a rather large feature that I am just not smart enough to know what it does. Starting off with the Euro we can see four distinct features; the first is the departing trough off to the east which acts as confluence forcing the storm south, the second is the shortwave itself, the third is the mid latitude ridge over the central plains, and the final piece is the energy north of our shortwave. So, what I do understand are how the players 1 (departing storm east of Canada) and 3 (mid-lat ridge) are impacting our shortwave and subsequent storm. In order to get the suppressed storm that somehow manages to precipitate cold stuff over us (I'm not even getting into ptype here) we want the player 1 to exit slower and further south as this helps suppress the flow in front of our shortwave. As many previous posters have said the 500 height lines act as train tracks for our storms to follow (which is evident if you would play this map through time). Additionally, a further southwest player 1 helps trap in our high (which is already displaced too far north for our liking) better. Adding onto getting our 500 height lines further south we need the mid latitude ridge over the central US to be further west based and further south as well. A comparison of the Euro (top) and GFS (bottom) 500 height anomalies shows the difference players 1 and 3 makes quite nicely. Notice the GFS has a flatter and more western ridge and a more intense storm off Canada. This is where my real knowledge of the subject ends as now I get to discuss players 2 (our shortwave) and 4 (northern energy) interacting. Once again we will use the vorticity charts to highlight these differences between the models as GFS has these two players interact which seems to favor a more north/south tilted storm and precip axis which interacts positively for us. Additionally, the GFS has a far wetter storm and I wonder if it could be the extra vorticity helping out? Once again GFS on bottom and Euro on top To be honest though I'll be in NYC due to an interesting set of circumstances (home alone 2 style) so I think I'll win out either way!

Geez I apparently need to take more breaks from this place! I come back and everyone's saying how we are looking good. I generally agree, though I'm not great at reading the long range pattern it seems good, or at the very least not a shit the blinds pattern at all. Even way out in la la land that we should have decent enough cold air thanks to a workable upper air pattern. Of course, its all very northern stream dominated and we generally appear maybe a bit too far south but considering the crazy trends we've seen so far this year who knows!

Its like trying to analyze something from the JMA