SnowenOutThere

I think you just need to expand your hiking weather. Next to no one is out on our April to June perfect track gulf soakers which provides a really cool vibe. Additionally, some trails have next to no one on them at anytime for some reason. Personally, I plan to fully use this time period before bugs and yellow jackets infest the trails.

You know we're done with winter when our March write up is on severe weather

Some models have it better than others. Though enough show something of that sort where I'm cautiously hopeful. Don't really know where this lift is coming from but GFS and mesos show some 850-700mb temp advection and resulting FGEN which I guess will be something to watch tomorrow. I'm trying to finish my Modern Political Theory essay on Hobbes from home tomorrow ("spring" break) so some nice ambiance would be cool.

Was clicking around on some soundings and some models seem to have a sneaky good alignment of lift and the DGZ for a band tomorrow somewhere between DC and Baltimore. We got a saturated upper atmosphere so once the surface moistens I think it would actually be a very pretty winter afternoon for someone.

I think 60s is a good compromise for this time of year. Nice enough where you can comfortably wear no jacket but not so warm where it starts feeling uncomfortable.

Oh please do let me know if you have any good wildflower hikes to go on. I've done the Bull Run Bluebells but otherwise just know about the Mountain Laurels across Shenandoah and WV. Got some hikes I've done in the winter (namely Cranberry wilderness) that I can't wait to do in the spring. Also have a patch of wild daffodils out next to a path near my house. Just hundreds of them.

Starting to see some daffodils poke up through the ground! Can’t wait for wildflower hike season.

Hell yeah I’m considered a met

I think the Euro OP will be better than its previous run

Yeah. Some solutions a couple days ago pushed more energy eastward with this wave so it had more support but now it seems like a lot just barely eject anything. Oh well.

That’s my worry with this storm. It’s relying so much on so little energy getting amplified by a NS wave playing nice.

This is the setup that has had the second highest likelihood of all our storms so far this year. Simple, easy way to win.

Man I wanna analyze this setup synoptically but I don’t got the time with midterms. Either way I like what I see for a nice little wave of years past. 2013-2014 vibes of a nice snow to lighter frozen precip.

Nah we getting March 29th to remember. Superstorm 93 redux with 2016 characteristics due to the strat warming

thank you so much. This is now my all time favorite post on this entire forum. You are truly a master at work and I mean that non sarcastically. Between the random zeros and dots it’s a modern day masterpiece.

Next tell him your salary!

Something something those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones

We’re gonna hit all 4 and get an epic series of light snow on snow events just you watch.

Quick question but did the Norlun trough ever do its thing? Seemed like most of the snow I got (probably 4-5 inches fell from the air but 3.2 OTG) was during the hours of 4-6pm with the FGEN from the coastal.

Pictures from my final Jebwalk up in NOVA before I head back south to UVA.

Right to Charlottesville

Just now finishing up a 3 mile post storm jebwalk. No complaints about this storm. Was beautiful and have all the trees a nice coating.

Not sure I buy IAD total. I have to be around 3.2 otg

Ehhhh the H5 setup is more B than A. Honestly it’s a freak setup where the jet streams aren’t doing what they should be for a miller storm but they manage to still get positioned correctly

True, but from an upper level perspective we were always relying on everything going right on those runs. We had the initial phase out west work perfectly, then we had the secondary vort help negatively tilt the trough super early. Then we had a strong enough primary low and SW vort that didn't run out east too quickly... there were just so, so many steps required to get those amazing snow maps. Not that someday the stars won't align but every individual storm you can bet against the snow maps until they are supported by a reasonable synoptic progression. IMO this is why the Jan 25th storm hurt so much because for once we had the H5 setup that was a reasonable, even expected, way to get a 2ft plus storm... then the stars aligned to turn it into a sleetfest. On the other hand this storm didn't really deserve the expectations placed upon it by the snowfall maps.