SnowenOutThere

Surface is low is both notably stronger and focused more westward at hour 87.

GFS appears to be coming in with a deeper H5 low. Now just need to see if it can 1. induce cyclogenesis soon enough 2. capture it

Wait and see what'll happen. I don't really care to synoptically analyze this like I did with our December storms and January event because unfortunately the more likely outcome as of now is no snow. Most ens keep the possibility of an inch of snow somewhere in the 40-60% range which frankly shows this isn't worth getting excited over. Just need to pray that the H5 pass trends further south or west depending on the model to capture the surface low in the ideal spot. Nothing we can do but hurry up and wait.

Both have Charlottesville only gaining snow run to run. #Trend #Snowtown

With this setup maybe we have so many opposing ways this storm can go wrong that they end up canceling each other out

I hope ships avoid that blob of FGEN or risk getting sucked up to the 700mb layer

From my brief analysis the issue is that the H5 jumps east a bit which prevents the surface low from retrograding near Chesapeake and crushing us. Don't quite know why this happens but I'm not too worried about the specific outcomes till later this week. Was very close.

Can see how you get the dynamics that jump east with the coastal

H5 captures and stacks with surface low here

Now thats how you do a CCB

CMC will be playing the thermals game with a closed 925mb low off the NC coast trying to pull in cold air. Should get it done.

CMC will be a vort pass over out latitude

Not really! I'm saying that this run is probably further off of a real blizzard than some of its runs yesterday. The mechanism that allowed for us to get near 6 inches of snow is different than the mechanism that would promote a blizzard. Yes, the two are linked, but we would need a dramatic change with the H5 low capturing the surface low instead of simply providing upper level diffluence which promotes lift of the moisture fetch from the Atlantic!

Not really, its mainly detached from the coastal. Instead its a great H5 pass I think with a good amount of moisture fetch to squeeze it out. The real blizzard conditions are reserved for the Atlantic ocean.

10-1 ratios

Still some more to go for VA at the hour I took this snapshot

All of this is frozen I believe

GFS looks pretty good.

Thanks! I got super lucky with the sun breaking out. Always love entering Whiteoak through the lower entrance as the whole place is just magical.

Tried to hike around the mountains south of Shenandoah and hit Crabtree falls. Unfortunately, it was located on the north slope which still had copious wet, slippery, and annoying sleet. I got .3 miles in before deciding it wasn't worth it. Instead I got some pictures of the country around which was a decent consolation prize.

I agree. What’s it range?

Frankly, if you were chasing some of the Euro Ai runs with a foot plus for the forum from a miller B and that’s why the gfs was disappointing you’re delusional. Not saying we can’t get that scenario to work someday but I would never, ever, take the low chance it has of verifying over a higher percent but lower max storm like the GFS output

You’re in a slightly different spot than me or some other members of the forum. You can gamble more with a primary secondary interaction thanks to having a colder base climo and being located north. Frankly, not even NOVA should really want to bet on that happening This is a true and valid point but think of it this way. I am often the warning shot for nova much like you guys are the warning shot for Fredrick and points north. If I am getting completely skunked by a miller B it shows who’s next in line to get shafted. Meanwhile, with a setup as the 18z gfs had it you have less upside yes, but way more wiggle room

Now I like that gfs run way more than 12z. Less complicated and not missing to our NE. Yes lower ceiling but as is also less likely to completely screw us over