SnowenOutThere

News of the weekend has broken containment as people are talking about it reaching below 0 with a foot of snow in convos I’ve passed by. Man the urge to correct them is strong.

Showtime

I do think that today's 12z suite may have been the best possible outcome anyone could've hoped for if they want to see the odds of a major snowstorm increase. Every single model minus the GFS increased outcomes and generally decreased the odds of missing north or south. It's pretty rare to see something like that happen.

From what I remember that was a concern that persisted for a bit but ultimately was solved by the time before the collapse. The main issue was that the PV went from acting as a cold source that sorta went live and let live with the storm to a crusher. You are right where the ens showed such an amazing signal for like 9 days out from the storm because of the whole period but it did consolidate before collapsing. I agree that this storm generally seems to be in a far better position. Only last thing I care about seeing before all systems go for a substantial (not hecs) storm is that all models drop the chance of not ejecting the SW

Feb 20th 2025. Look at the thread from last year, won't poison this thread with the details.

yep. Would chase out to reddish knob or spruce knob but I've felt rough with a cold the past couple days. Additionally, I'm aware my productivity will tank for this week if the models don't backpedal.

Planning to start my deep dive H5 post shortly. So far all I will say is that I think with the recent set of guidance have have since passed even Feb 20 at its peak in consistency and likelihood.

Classic Euro trick to only not run when we really need it to.

My Greatest Creation. Absolutely legendary pull

I'm more so speaking from a we get the 0z Euro run where its a good foot of snow area wide. I would love a HECS but for now I'm discounting that happening.

It was more a consolidation than a real shift north or south. Just had more members that ejected the low and had a storm which appears as a shift north.

What time do you think we need these models to hold through to start getting legit excited? My benchmark is inside tomorrow 12z runs as The Storm That Shall Not Be Named fell apart five days before it occurred so I'll wait till tomorrow.

Im sure you'll find a way to manage with only 2 feet of snow.

No Words

My God

Its an odd duck H5 wise but gets us into snow by this time period

Ukmet will not be as far north as its 0z run. Still ejects the SW but doesn't phase it as far back so should be better for all of us.

GEFS looks like it should be improved to some extent

Funniest part is it almost pulls it off but remains too positively tilted to capture the low. Ironically there is a larger storm out there.

Hour 150 with light snow exiting the region

Whoever is riding the mixing line on the CMC is in for the time of their lives. Its actually not too dissimilar than that GFS sounding from its 60 inch snowstorm in PA

We broke Tropical Tidbits output scaling

Almost looks like its going for a triple phase in the plains. Or it could just crush it... NVM

@stormtracker I believe your services are needed

Scratch that as others have pointed out it looks to phasing with the NS instead of being killed by it. This is exactly how the new CMC at 0z got us a complete ice storm as it jacked the whole track way north. Though the 12z CMC seems to be a bit further south so it may crush us