yep. Would chase out to reddish knob or spruce knob but I've felt rough with a cold the past couple days. Additionally, I'm aware my productivity will tank for this week if the models don't backpedal.
Planning to start my deep dive H5 post shortly. So far all I will say is that I think with the recent set of guidance have have since passed even Feb 20 at its peak in consistency and likelihood.
I'm more so speaking from a we get the 0z Euro run where its a good foot of snow area wide. I would love a HECS but for now I'm discounting that happening.
It was more a consolidation than a real shift north or south. Just had more members that ejected the low and had a storm which appears as a shift north.
What time do you think we need these models to hold through to start getting legit excited? My benchmark is inside tomorrow 12z runs as The Storm That Shall Not Be Named fell apart five days before it occurred so I'll wait till tomorrow.
Whoever is riding the mixing line on the CMC is in for the time of their lives. Its actually not too dissimilar than that GFS sounding from its 60 inch snowstorm in PA
Scratch that as others have pointed out it looks to phasing with the NS instead of being killed by it. This is exactly how the new CMC at 0z got us a complete ice storm as it jacked the whole track way north. Though the 12z CMC seems to be a bit further south so it may crush us
I was focused on the out west interactions but honestly I liked what the GFS did where we live. It showed another path to a snowstorm even if we fail our golden route. I like this second failsafe situation where we use the NS to create an eastern low pressure with all of the moisture to our south. Hopefully it won't need to come to this but I like that its there.
Lmao you're doing great I'm just here ranting about maps.
Speaking of which we flirt for so long with a phase before it starts to retrograde back west. Though... I think it might setup for a different storm later with this look.
Next 20 hours determines if the GFS can pull through. The SW is so close to ejecting east and we need the bit of energy north of it to help it instead of cut it off