SnowenOutThere

Welcome back to our planet!

Looks actually quite similar to the 18z Euro...

Not sure you want to be like me. Currently caved from my self imposed ban on the forum till I finished my philosophy homework. Turns out the one thing harder than understanding an H5 map is trying to understand The Ontological Argument and its critiques.

Icon is a move towards the everyone but the GFS camp with a better angle of the NS which acts to pull our SW east 0z on top with 18z on bottom

Dude we are so SO close to an absolute smackdown phase with the 18z Euro. Though arguably the end run we got was better due to not having any thermal issues aloft and double barreled system. Ideally you probably have a bit more interaction but that's a nitpick so far out.

Wow, I'm surprised you can see anything with how positive the DZ is. Maybe we can flip it later tonight.

Just wait till you see the post I made just before this one! My best analysis yet I dare say.

Biggest issue I've seen no one discuss about the storm shifting backwards is that it'll be getting further into sun angle season. C'mon guys we used to be a proper forum.

Man, I have gotten nothing done today. Going to take a step back for the night now that all the runs are done.

Adding onto your post with a real example of the 18z Euro and that setup across Mappy and PSU land.

Even better sounding to the south where there's more moisture. It really is uncanny how this sounding is nearly the exact same as that GFS run of the 60 inch PA storm for this time period.

Yep. I think it does have a better NS come in afterwards though. As a slightly bantery side note I always dreamed of becoming one of the posters that you or some other respectable mets/posters would agree with so thanks! Made my day lmao

We've lost almost 12 hours on it according to the Euro which only goes to make the forecast even further out in time

It also seems pretty much aligned to the Euro OP as well. Would think that from days 4-6 they combined would be a pretty good duo.

Main change is that its a bit less intense but longer duration snowstorm. Has snow all the way back to Texas at the end of its run We already have a general 4-8 otg by that time too. I also think that it would come up the coast some.

Precip panels aren't out yet but surface visibility def shows a heavy snowstorm

From vort maps I expect the Euro to be at least a solid hit

Has the NS lobe overtop the low that wasn't there in 12z. Not sure if it'll phase or crush.

Oh yeah its coming East. Thank god

So far the Euro seems to be largely holding with its handling out west through hour 88

Please refer to my post back on page six. Went over all that stuff there. The GFS fails to eject it due to destructive interference with the NS vorticity caused by another storm out in the Pacific. The Euro has that vorticity instead phase and amp the SW.

So far through hour 64 the Euro seems unchanged with its handling of the SW and vorticity related to ejecting it...

For all the people saying "the GEFS/GFS was better" or "its fine it has time to change" I want to put a word of caution against that. Yes, raw numbers wise they are better; however, if either of them are correct we lose the big dog or even large storm potential unless dramatic changes occur in the NS. The reason I personally hate the GFS is because they do NOT eject the SW. As for it has time to change, this is true; yet, the SW should eject within 4-5 days and we should know if it'll eject within the next day or so. We need the GFS to be wrong with its handling of the SW to get a big storm.

Would suck to have a repeat of Feb 20th.

It'll be a long week. Just have to hope that we don't lose the SW. Otherwise its an even longer week with the NS.