Spanks45

My 1-2 is looking too high at the moment.... C-1" before flip?

seeing a lot of obs down in NJ with no snow, sleet to rain...not sure that helps our case down here, models are picking up on the quicker warming aloft?

No time table, but hoping within the next year or 2 and need to stay within the area...We have actually looked at a few places in/around Southbury. I should say a location with the best snow prospects and at least slightly lower taxes.

It makes house hunting fun, I need to drive around and take notes where the best snowfall retention areas are before we decide on location...I'm thinking 1-2 here with quite a bit of sleet

29.1°/23°...temps continue to drop slowly

a few miles south of exit 11 off of 84....roughly 450 ft elevation. I have just noticed since moving up here that this location switches earlier than modeled, but the surface almost always lags by a few hours on most models. I get a bit of a cold air feed from the Housatonic depending on the surface winds, you can always see it on the Weatherunderground temps.

I understand the main idea behind a SWFE, I'm talking down here along the shoreline and even most of CT...If you look at the wind directions at different levels. Any winds with a ssw component that pull from anybody of water ie. sound/ocean (water temps are upper 40s to near 50 south of Long Island) Doesn't take much to flood the upper levels with warmth, different than when they are in the 30s. The cold air drain from the N to NE only help at the surface until the circulation begins to wrap up and pull out. The meso models probably start to see the differences in a wsw, sw, or even ssw directions and how strong they are as we get closer. Which makes a difference for us down here and is probably why we are seeing the flip happen sooner, less snow....

It seems the HRRRV4 or what ever it is called has better surface temps than its parent?, just an observation from this past month....I do think the trend has been less snow and more sleet/frz rain or what ever mess comes after the snow switches....Early season SWFE have too much warm water to work with, transition happens earlier.

yikes....no generator here, at least we will stay warm

Looks great here along 84, but I feel like the snow never ends up being on the high side of forecasts/model output with this type of system, coming from this direction. It seems like there is always a transition to sleet earlier than expected, hopefully I am wrong this time...

The only model that gets us above freezing so far....I think we touch 32 on the 3k, but barely, Tuesday looking quite wintry down here. I would prefer a few inches of snow before the flip, but beggers can't be choosers I guess....

Just saw that, there has been a slight trend to have a band of 3-6 inches snow somewhere, right now central CT is in that area. I suspect that changes and shifts north. The more the first batch dampens out, the 'snowier' things have been looking around here. Definitely more of a front end snow thump...

Figures, it looked better to start things, definitely better than prior Nam runs...the icy look continues it seems

Nam looking a bit better at least early on for us on the souther end of things...definitely a snowier look to start out Tuesday morning.

I see 5's running along 84 from Danbury up to your neck of the woods...must be wrong

hopefully we can pick up at least an inch before it starts....Nothing like glaze on top of mud

Yeah, the past 5 years of living here I have come to realize any N to NE wind in this type of system despite what the models are showing, I rarely touch freezing here. Even the storm at the beginning of the month was suppose to hit 35-37 and it touch 32.4 before dropping back down.

I'm sitting nicely right by that bullseye, it will most likely end up east of here. It seems like that is where it always ends up. But we shall see..still below freezing here, 27.0° atm

Lol at those temps 7 pm on Sunday the 22, a whopping 1°

5 days out, but the surface cold locks in and actually filters in from the NNE down here....definitely an icy look this far out

It has been quite persistent in that storm in one shape or another for days...so who knows, blind squirrel hopefully finding that nut

The giant melting ice cube that is Greenland is keeping this region cooler than the surrounding regions for now... Lookout when the shelf melts completely!

And just like that, the 6z GFS might of just gotten a clue for early next week...Hopefully it has the right idea for the storm after the storm, after the storm (next weekend)...lol

Snow starting to wind down, maybe an extra 0.2" of fluff, call it 3.7" total...temp dropped again, down to 26.8°

snow coming down nicely now with that final band pushing through, snow growth isn't great, but areas on the deck that I cleared earlier are now covered again....maybe a quick push for 4" total here, temp down to 28.1°