agreed...I think winter forecasting is pretty much voodoo at this point (could be due to the changing background climate making analogs almost useless, probably why Bastardi is wrong 99.9% of the time these days). I see countless forecasts every year that end up wrong or revised over and over again to make them look "better" and when they do end up getting them close to being right, it is usually for the wrong reasons. We get snow in October and April/May (Tip did call the October snow well in advance, kudos). Nino's and Nina's don't even act like the normal events of the past...I love the tracking aspect of weather, regardless of rain or snow...