I understand the main idea behind a SWFE, I'm talking down here along the shoreline and even most of CT...If you look at the wind directions at different levels. Any winds with a ssw component that pull from anybody of water ie. sound/ocean (water temps are upper 40s to near 50 south of Long Island) Doesn't take much to flood the upper levels with warmth, different than when they are in the 30s. The cold air drain from the N to NE only help at the surface until the circulation begins to wrap up and pull out. The meso models probably start to see the differences in a wsw, sw, or even ssw directions and how strong they are as we get closer. Which makes a difference for us down here and is probably why we are seeing the flip happen sooner, less snow....