Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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really warm at the surface, raining everywhere except Litchfield county....either the models are missing the colder surface temps or they are picking up on the warm ocean/sound temps being so early in the season
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bit more snow on the front end around here....definitely cooler to start Midlevels warm pretty quickly, lots of sleet even up into central NY
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Just from an observation standpoint, the wind continues. Obviously not as strong as the past 2 days, but steady and gusty all night long.
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I mean, what is 30 miles over 36 hours?
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4-6 inches for most of Fairfield county
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I see the NWS has us in the 8-12 inch range for both systems....more like half that if we are luck right looking at things right now, clearly a lot can change, I hope they are right and I am wrong
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6z has the lowest amount of snow for this area in the past 36 hours of Euro modeling...however just to the west was almost double, so lets shift the whole thing to the south and east please.
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yes lets get that thing to stall far enough to the east... Yeah, we are still 48+ hrs out, the models can't be perfect, that far out....Best thing about the weather, nothing is ever set in stone If it were to happen that way, hopefully I am "upset" with only 27", lol
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I know it will change, but we are almost dryslotted while everyone around us is being dumped on.....
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The NAM tends to be too warm at the surface, but seems like it always does well in the upper levels when it comes to how far the warming gets....Ice!
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Lol at the Canadian, death band sits and rots over Western SNE....neat to look at but, definitely not happening that way, nice to see it continues the colder theme though. I feel that usually the Canadian tends to be warmer at this point?
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GFS gives me roughly 5-10 inches of snow after virtually nothing from round 1....
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Wonder if there is an area of some good ice accretion around this area, just away from the coast....
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We are in a interesting location for this, basically a boom or bust situation....2-5 inches on the front end changing to a brief period of sleet to freezing rain and finally hours of snizzle until the upper level low catches up for round 2. Which at this point is the wild card, another 3-6 or 4-8 maybe if all comes together?
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Then again, looking closer for the western portions of CT/MA and NY the EPS precip numbers seemed to have increased and expanded, even the ( I know, I looked at the snow output too). So yes a tick north, but also an increase in moisture that didn't affect much of SNE negatively
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Everyone knew it was coming, but it seems a bit early...I would assume this "trend" continues until at least 12z tomorrow. Even so, that still puts us almost 60 hours until the second part of the system with plenty of room for wobbles....
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watching models long enough, you know some sort of head fake is coming...It is much better to see the high building right now versus lifting out...90+ hrs feels like an eternity right now
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998 right off of OC Md....We are about to get Nam'd, worried that this continues to push southward....congrats DC?
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The 6z control is....out of control as well as the snowfall mean, nice to see it continue to look better at this point and hopefully not start reverse course. It is nice to have this be the EURO and not the GFS
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Kinda has the look of the 12z Euro, just colder. Just 90+ hours to go....
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Well at least the GFS is the warmest model at this point, we can just ride the Euro and EPS right?
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On the line down here, but might be all frozen based on the recent run....Seems like the current "trend" is for cooler lower levels, of course the upper levels are going to torch regardless until the secondary takes over...At least it looks like a normal SWFE around these parts, with a possible "bonus" with the secondary development
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If correct, the GFS has some snow as early as Sunday morning. The whole thing might just end up as a SWFE. Few inches of snow to sleet/ freezing rain to drizzle before ending and the secondary developing a hair too late, just offshore....
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Yeah I remember the big changes with the northern edge of precip, especially when you are being fringed 24 hrs to gametime. I was thinking more on the lines of picking up on a long duration snowstorm, well in advanced....
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If that primary goes up into Wisconsin, I think we might have something. If it starts heading towards Detroit then we are cooked...
