Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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but we have the 6z Nam trending north...
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is there a chance that southern stream energy scoots out and that northern stream ends up digging further south and becoming the main event?
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Sadly back to hoping for a day 10 threat to work out, we can't seem to get anything from day 4-7 work in our favor....Hoping this weekend can break the streak.
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So the way things are going, we are setting up a 1-2 weeks worth of winter before we go back to what we had from December 17ish until now? Yikes...
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It left a piece of energy that ended up in the Baja region, looks like the Euro now.....
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GFS further SE at 12z....6z trend continues at 12z it seems
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I actually think the 6z Icon run is a pretty realistic outcome for this storm (if there is a slight phase that occurs). A quick hitting 6-10 inch storm for many in CNE/SNE. And I would be perfectly fine with that most winters, especially this one....
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Saturday we will all be watching satellite loops, having early phase hallucinations, thinking the ots forecast is wrong....only to have the models in the end being correct even though it was soooo close...
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I will take anyone of those 968/970 lows just south of eastern Long Island please....
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Just an observation over the years of watching the Euro, more often than not it doesn't just jump in the last minute with a storm like this....baby steps yes, but nothing like what the GFS does. Doesn't mean the Euro wont bounce NW hundreds of miles inside of day 3....Just saying it would be nice to have the Euro show something close by within day 5
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Definitely don't want to bullseye 5-6 days out, keep everything nearby. Let the ensembles show some hits and hopefully we are good. It would be nice to see the Euro Op show something closer soon rather than later though....
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Oh of course, playing the odds, probably well below 1%....This is what creates the so called addiction to weather modeling, the Euro ensembles are complete and everyone is silently needing the 18z stuff to start asap, winter time specifically.
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Lol at the GFS past 300 hr, maybe winter does come back with a vengeance? Is it too much to ask for the CMC to verify first, then follow it with the GFS storm after 300?
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We might finally be onto something...every model has had something now for a few days, hit or miss the players are still there. The ensembles are coming around and we are in the 6-8 day range. What do you say, 10-20% of some sort of impact along the east coast at this point?
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Reading back on previous coastal storms over the past 6+ years tells you why you do not want to bullseye 5+ days out...lets keep the storm around and worry about west and east within the 36-72 hour range...
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Consider it snakebitititus, but the concern is it starts backing off and looking more like the GEFS longer range...reminds me of just a few weeks ago. Hopefully no setbacks as we are pushing into February now...the sun this morning felt warm, the clock is starting to tick now...
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ok, maybe I was a little vague, they actually look good day 10-13/14ish, then you can see the trough in the east eroding as the trough from Alaska down through the west coast re-establishes itself. It has been showing this the past couple of days it seems. Who knows what is going to happen, I just don't like seeing the trough out west with a ridge near Hawaii, we just spend what seems like half the winter in the position....
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GEFS continue to look horrible past day 10, hopefully they are wrong....
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and now 2.54" per hour rate, up to 1.24" now, what season is this?
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1.45" per hour rates right now, 1.14" total so far in the Davis, will check the stratus when it is done
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43 and heavy rain, entire yard is flooded, snow is hanging tough, but should vaporize shortly
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It seems like the more hi-res the models become, plus the input of more atnospheric data each run is creating the crazy jumps in the OP runs past Day 3. Maybe it actually isnt that way using verification scores, but it just seems to be more variability in that 3-5 day window in recent years. Not trying to stir the pot, but maybe CC is wreaking some havoc in there...
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I think the Euro at 6z and 18z have the right idea, all models should just be run fully out to 90 hrs, ensembles out to 144 and call it a day. It seems to be a giant waste of time and money(I would assume) to run these models out to 360+ hours when they have such a low percentage of verification. I assume it is for the commodities market, not necessarily for the weather weenies....
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The GEFS at the moment, especially now on the 18z are almost repeating what happened with the "great" look in the long range...trough in the east, cold coming, but as we start inching closer day by day, that trough shifts westward and we end up with a ridge in the east...hope its wrong, but it is almost like we have seen this story before, not too long ago...
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Well we all know what solution wont happen now....lol, why cant that show up inside of 48 hours!
