Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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some warm air aloft pushing in and not having strong enough rates leads to quicker changeover than forecasted or even a changeover where it wasn't forecasted....just saying something to watch, not saying that it is going to happen.
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Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT...
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One tick away from engulfing the entire state in that purple...then put a thin layer of ice on top to protect it from the 40 on Wednesday afternoon.
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What are we thinking around here? 1-3"? I worry it turns to sleet or freezing rain earlier than forecasted around here.....
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I'm still waiting to see if all this north trend eventually drags that 2 second system northward....or all of this is just a head fake and 0z pushes back to the south
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Figures, we know where this is headed....seems like the Icon led the way? Assuming of course the GFS is correct...
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there goes the wiggle room....This thing keeps trending north, but somehow the 29th will be congrats Georgia, Lol
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yup...seems like a bit of wiggle room too, so hopefully looking at advisory snows, just in time for some serious cold next weekend....
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18z Reggie is 3-5" CT wide and western Mass....1-3" for the rest of SNE outside of the cape
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at least 24hrs of snow on that model too.....lots of light snow flying around if these models have a clue
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we might get our days and days of snow....might only add up to 2-4 inches, but I will take that any day in a season like this. Currently 25 under bright sun and it is freezing outside, at least give us some flakes in the air if it is going to be cold like this
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ugghhh, do not mention that, it has been trending north....probably end up with periods of freezing drizzle or snizzle for 24 hours or so after the initial "snow event"
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since we cant have the 29th, lets squeeze out as much as we can from the 26th before the cold air locks in for a bit....better than bare ground at least
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Multiple models are starting to run that low pressure towards Cleveland now....hopefully it stops soon. Unless of course it brings the follow up system further north, then keep it up. It almost seems like the first system is leaving behind a boundary that tugs the second system along...the GFS kinda showed that at 12z.
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yeah once that NAO breaks down....there will be nothing stopping the SE Ridge from flexing which will lead to the inevitable. Probably a SWFE followed by a full fledged rains to Maine cutter.
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Continue to see heights rise in Alaska towards the end of the ensemble runs...maybe February won't be so bad
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I will take 2" at this point, all this "cold" air and nothing but bare ground....at least we could sublimate our 2 inches and not Swiss cheese the soil
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I like hearing Luke's hood mentioned, maybe we can score both being just enough west and just enough south....asking too much?
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looking at the indies, there are 5-6 huge hits for SNE in that suite....there is some upside at least, something to watch as we move toward the 26th.
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Wow, they look great....4-5 days out, if we were in the bullseye we would be saying, don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, good luck to the Mid Atlantic, they have had a rough for years....maybe they score here, but I would expect that track to shift N or S at this point, and by quite a bit with any shifts in that block
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Looking at the whole picture from the glass half full perspective....the whole system looks different than it did just 24 hours ago and we still haven't gotten past the 26th, so maybe the 29th is the sneaky under the radar system for us....
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The squeeze is already on full display for the 29th on the GFS....going to end up well south of the 0z/6z runs
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no kidding, I would be ecstatic for a couple of inches at this point...I still expect a virga fest at this point with dustings for the most part, but who knows...might end up being a nowcast storm with where the dry air ends up winning
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Just not our year it seems...I was just looking at my FB memories plastered with the 2016 blizzard stuff, maybe the 29th could be similar placement? One things for certain we might not know the answer to the 29th until we are past the 26th ordeal ..
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Just a few inches would be great....yesterday's snow squalls were a nice sight to see, amazing what a little snowfall can do for the psyche
