Spanks45

If I recall it has a cold bias.....always gave us more snow than reality(most of those clowns do, but that one in particular)

Hopefully this isn't one of those 4-6 inch forecasts that ends up 1-2 inches that quickly changes to sleet and light rain...35⁰ for most of the day Sunday that then freezes everything after the sun goes down type events Just let us enjoy some sledding Sunday and Monday before we need the kayaks and generators....

waiting on the Euro, but so far according to the clown maps our region should expect anywhere from 4-20 inches....goal posts have widened. GEFS are pretty consistent on the track it seems, but disagree on strength

Big question, is it believable? That run is pretty much perfection here...

yeah, Namd for sure here....just getting its act together and it already had us pushing 7 inches.....still so much time to go at this point, is it too much to ask to have this thing start to bomb out 6 hrs earlier?

We knew it would find a way to hit areas EOR....6-10 inches here is fine by me though. If the 10th gives us a few, we might be pushing all of last year's totals in a 3-4 day period

best time of year for mood snows, should still accumulate assuming the boundary layer isn't torched. I remember sitting in school hoping for an early dismissal as the snow was coming down for hours, not knowing it was going to be hours of white rain because late February/early March. But as soon as the sun started to set, the roads would become an instant disaster....

Ha, I was just thinking how this thing isn't inside of 84hr where the NAM can start being the NAM.... One bad omen is this was a Sunday storm down here, now I am seeing this possibly starting Saturday evening. Storm is booking it here, so it probably is outrunning something leading to to the uglier look right now. Hopefully it comes back to something from 0z last night....

looks fantastic around here.....even has some wiggle room, after last year a solid 4-8 inches would be fantastic, no complaints

He sure did disappear as soon as his early call for a Mid Atlantic, south of the Mason Dixon line storm started falling apart... No football spiking yet, but finally something that at this point looks like we can get at least the snow shovels wiped down

4-5 day range, goal posts are still fairly wide.....Hopefully this thing doesn't end up kissing the Hudson Valley.....keep it somehow south of LI

Erratic OP run for sure, but the OP has been subtly shifting the goods South the past few runs while the trend on the GEFS for the past 2 days, even at 6z is to bring more moisture NW...I guess we shall see what the 12z GEFS bring, hopefully not the start of a trend....

So, what I am getting from this is to not be surprised when once again the planetary forces will find a way to not let it snow in SNE.... It will eventually snow around here, but in the end likely another 2 week winter incoming. Hope I am wrong, but it has been rough.

I used my snow shovel yesterday to clean up the debris from 4+ inches of rain. I have actually used snow shovels more the past 2 years for things not related to snow....Hopefully we make up for this sooner rather than later, but at this point who knows....Seen too many seasons of warm/wet, cold/dry patterns

Anecdotally, from my perspective....Where have all the smaller snow events gone? Besides 2014/15, I feel like the 1-3/2-4/3-6 storms have all but disappeared. The so called bread and butter events. Growing up in the Mid Atlantic region, they have all but disappeared down there as well... Would be interesting to see the rates of marginal events per year, I would assume they have decreased in frequency, but.... Snow days have been replaced with wind/flood days..

I think what gets people rattled with a certain group of people when it comes to trolling here is that they start posting when the pattern looks warm and snowless. But as soon as it does snow and the pattern is actually decent for winter weather, they disappear with absolutely nothing to add. But then as soon as the snow starts melting and the warmth is inevitable, they pop up from the snow banks and start poking the hornets nest again. To each their own, doesn't bother me, I just keep scrolling along... As far as those forecasting based on persistence rather than pattern recognition. It really is amazing how since last year, especially down here in SNE you could forecast based on the least snowy model forecast and almost always be correct, regardless of the pattern or the month. And here we go again so far this year, same thing.....hopefully we can finally break this dreadful, snowless funk we are in come January. But even myself who tends to be more optimistic, is in the believe it when I see it state of mind...

Davis says 29 mph, second highest gust this year, (February 3rd had a 33.1 mph gust) so pretty impressive winds for here at least....was just out with the kids wondering around the yard (kids love this stuff too), I would say gusting around 40 to 45 mph right now, the stuff that woke me up at 4:30 was probably pushing 50?

6z GEFS, look pretty good as well....fi gers crossed as it looks like the "change" is starting to occur inside of day 10 now. Time will tell, for now it feels like mid October with a tropical storm near by....

I would honestly be ok with this, if we didn't have to deal with another 6-10 weeks of cold and dreary weather. More days like yesterday and today please....

Rgem would be something of interest WOR, what's 6-10 inches of rain before Christmas like? Sheesh, glad that model is usually wrong....

CMC and GFS warming up for Christmas.....definitely a lot of flip flopping for that time period

Yeah it seems like everything wants to slow up, at least after what barrels through on Monday...fingers crossed we finally get a good look here in SNE soon, feels like we haven't had one for almost 2 years now

Can we just punt everything in exchange for the storm at the end of the GFS run? Too much to ask?

12z Icon snows in DC, rains to Maine on the second wave... Bright side, can the Icon that far out, actually be correct?

4 kids, no thank you....I will take a few feet of snow though I think/hope the GFS is trying to tell us something, maybe our bad luck will finally run out next week