Spanks45

And proud of it....minus the lack of snowfall compared to you

Over by the Bent of the River Audubon Center.....

Serious Mid Atlantic vibes on those 2 maps....7.6" here in the Southbury valley if you want.

I only hit 8°, I expected at least 0°....it was crystal clear and calm winds last night when I had the dog out. Definitely did not radiate like I expected, especially with some snow cover

It is needed around here....While the landscape has a nice winter vibe to it. The layer of ice under the snow makes walking (especially a dog) around dangerous and sledding for the kids is pretty much impossible. So lets thaw it out and get some real snow in here before spring starts. If grading winters based on sledding days, we are behind last year at this point (6 days to 2)...

1.1" of fluff, western side of Southbury CT....feels and looks like winter for once

Has been snowing non stop since 8 am, roughly 1.1" so far....beautiful out, 27.1° atm

Sounds good, even my 0.1" that I just got feels like a win.....keep them coming

haha, lets keep this atmosphere moist for tomorrow so we can pull off a couple of inches Legit light snow, just started to accumulate on everything besides the heavily salted roadway

snowflakes with dim sun right now.....thus begins days and days, lol (28°/13°)

I agree, sample size needs to be bigger, maybe this is all a bad memory in a few years and we can go back to arguing about jackpots....But was it bad luck during those other periods or just a bad pattern? CC has accelerated, but was still a factor back then as well, so who knows....Hopefully the GFS has a clue about next week, would finally be something that is in our favor

Since no one right now has a clue just how much CC is impacting our weather patterns, maybe we are looking at it the wrong way....maybe CC is the bad luck factor As years go by it seems like bad luck is becoming more and more of our issue around here with regards to snow. Here in Southbury, I average 45ish inches per season...now unless we have 2 or more 10-15 inch events, we are almost guaranteed a below or well below average season. When in the past we probably averaged one, 10-15 inch event ever 2 years but still had enough snow to establish that average. Something is definitely broken, maybe bad luck is just voodoo at this point and should be looked at as something else causing our snow issues.

pretty close to that here too....Nam will nail the dry air aloft, just as it nails the warm air aloft

Forecasting down here the past 2 seasons has been quite easy....look at all of the clown maps, 12 hrs to first flakes, take the lowest number and it will most likely be correct....call it what it is, but it has been right way more than anything else. if the forecast is 3-5, the hrrr/Euro/etc, what ever is the lowest, say 1.5", it will be around 1.5". Just our luck down here....I remember when we actually had positive busts down here, now its earlier changeovers, dryslots, late phases, lbsw, air was too dry to start, the atmosphere seems to have many reasons, LOL. Looks like Friday might have multiple reasons why, here the biggest looks to be dry air. At some point, something has to go in the snowier direction and flip the switch. 24.4° at 1:15 in the afternoon should secure our first sub 20 degree high for this winter season, low dipped to 6.3° right before the sun peaked over the ridge this morning. I suspect if we can get the winds to go calm tonight or this weekend, we should be able to go below zero.... Our 1.5" of snow/sleet/Frz rain is actually disappearing on the south facing hills this afternoon, not bad considering the low temps....

First single digits of the winter season....6.8⁰ currently

1.5" here....mostly freezing rain now, temp 26.6° - Southbury CT

can see that line racing NW....lovely, fun while it lasted

I have kids, I would much rather have them home safe than risk them going to school because we are New Englanders.....School buses are far from something I would want to drive up and down steep hills that are snow or in today's case sleet and freezing rain covered... Finally over an inch here, snowing nicely, temp steady at 24.4⁰

Snow picking up now, looks like snow growth is better too....no longer looks like sand falling from the sky

0.8" looks nice....hopefully the hrrr has a clue and we can grab another 1-2 here. 24.4⁰

That's pretty ugly....guess it is hard to say if the past 2 years is a trend or just a crappy 2 year winter pattern. Persistence for the win or loss depending on what side of the fence you are on...interesting how that area of higher heights on the east coast through the north Atlantic tends to run north of the gulf stream

Are these lows hugging the coastline because of the warmer waters along the coast? If so, that is a double whammy for all of us that aren't above 600ft moving forward....unless of course the coastal waters find some way to cool off in the future during the winter season.

Yeah I am not saying way above average like we have seen in past years, but even 1-2 degrees above average in marginal setups along SNE seems to be the difference. I guess my question is tomorrow for example....am I going to lose 1-3 inches of snow to taint because of warmer than average water temps? If the water temps were even just say average for this time of the year, would taint even be an issue this far north? On paper, cold airmass ahead of it, we don't have SW flow out front of it and it's January 16th, not March or November.... Meteorologically speaking, I know there are many more factors than airmass and water temps that can determine rain vs snow vs sleet in the grand scheme of our climate. My background is in Biology and Oceanography so I understand how powerful even 1 degree in a body water can be....I took an air-sea interaction course in college, but that was a long time ago, so my memory needs some refreshing from the pros here....and my approach here is not to complain or whine about it not snowing imby, but more to open a scientific conversation on why it seems our winter weather pattern down here has been all or nothing for quite sometime. Or even the so called wet/warm coldish/dry pattern has been dominant....

In regards to the 80s, it just didn't want to snow. The cold was there, just not the precip when it was needed. Now, when it does snow it is because we threaded some needle and pulled some teeth to finally get it to happen. CC doesn't mean it doesn't snow anymore or it never gets cold anymore. At this stage, it probably means when we actually get a snow storm it will be one that breaks records or when it does get cold, it will end up breaking records. CC seems to be increasing the frequency of record breaking events. But regardless of those snow totals, our months and year temperatures will most likely be above or way above average. But again, it doesn't mean we can't have a below average month, or even even a well below average month (February 2015 for example) The big question remains, how is CC affecting our bread and butter systems and thus our seasons on average.... If we taint more often, knocking off a few inches here and there, plus a few systems that are marginal and end up 33 and rain instead of 31 and snow. Maybe we miss out on 10 to 15, maybe even 20 inches each season. Then we have what we have been dealing since 2014/15. However, those "good" seasons since then have been saved by 1 or 2 big storms or by a prolific 2 week winter. Otherwise they didn't really have that feeling of average, let alone above average. I still think coastal water temps are killing our winter seasons down here and probably won't change until the water temps come back down to average, if they ever do at this point. So, I will take any snow I can get down here and enjoy it....it's still more than I ever had growing up in the Mid Atlantic region.

New climate we live in....it is amazing what our winters look like when our offshore waters are a few degrees warmer than what they should be. Taint ends up x amount of miles further inland for offshore systems. It's almost like we need a system outside of the Benchmark to ensure all snow along the coastline during the coldest part of the year. It's one thing if we don't have any cold air around, but now that we do, even the weakest of low pressures can taint the region ...This is why we cant have an average season anymore without some massive snowstorm to pad the stats so to speak or in some cases that doesn't even matter. Definitely Mid Atlantic climate vibes. If the offshore waters can ever get back to even near normal, maybe things can change...until then hedge on the lower side of most forecasts with systems like this. Hoping for 1-3 down here before we flip to drizzle, most likely we are 34-35 with slop tomorrow mid day