Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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Eyeballing about the same here....a nice 3-4 hrs of light snow with temps near 26⁰...something one would expect in January around here
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Thoughts on how the confluence in the NE is shunting that shortwave south on the GFS while the Euro is weaker and allows it to move further east? Maybe we need the stronger confluence early on in eastern Canada....
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I mean we still have PTSD stemming from 2015, was it the Euro OP that didn't agree with its own ensembles which was a red flag? I also feel like there have been quite a few times, somewhat recently where the OPs were having a tough time, yet the ensembles led the way....
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In this 4-5 day range, I feel like if the ensembles were trending the wrong way while the Ops were showing hits it would be more concerning....but at least for now it is the other way around. Both the Euro and GFS have been completely wrong before at this time frame, so at this point no real answers...Hope for a blizzard but reality says Dr. No will take the prize....
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On a side note, not that anyone cares...but it is snowing nicely down here atm. Good sign for this weekend?!?!
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The swings on the OPs are ridiculous, especially inside of 5 days....especially at the 500 level
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Definitely some light snow falling now, looks hazy at least....26/17 atm
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It's actually snowing outside right now....at least the ground is cold enough
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I would feel better burning it with snow on the ground...probably close to using 2 cords so far along with a quarter tank of oil....definitely ahead of my burning schedule
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Would definitely take a good 3-6 inch that switches over before ending....mix up this pattern already
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If it wasn't so 'cold' it wouldn't be so tough...but it has felt like snow for weeks it seems with very little to show for it. All the while, the subconscious part is telling you that the warmup switch is coming so we better get some snow soon or it will be too late.
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I would just like to see some sun, longer than an hour after sunrise.....reminds me of April, just colder.
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Need that further north, going to be the infamous LBSW...
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More snow for the Mid Atlantic....
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Toggling from 12 to 18z, the upper levels are unbelievablely different
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Nice to see the GFS bounce back.....
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I feel like this will be one of these instances where the NAM will be close and we would all be wishing for the dgex to make a comeback....not saying it will be right, just that the NAM will some how show some sort of crazy solution to suck us all back in....
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And we know how well these have worked out for us over the past few years.....Not sure what happened to the systems like the Mid Atlantic is going to get Sunday into Monday...That thing has been forecasted a week in advance with very little deviation. It's either too warm to snow or too confluenced to snow around here....But at least there is something to look at and it is under 200 hrs and the energy is ejecting by day 5
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We want to say its the 80s all over again....the results maybe the same, how we are getting there is a whole different story, though some want to ignore those facts. I'm all for using analogs, but they just aren't very useful anymore unless we have some from at least a billion years ago, then again there was most likely a supercontinent and they wouldn't matter either.....Anyways, hopefully it snows soon
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We cooked down here.....It's going to snow again, but instead of discussing above or below average for snowfall we will be discussing the over or under of 20 inches. Sad times, but we might as well get used to it
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Yeah, it seems like the only way to get snow anymore is to get lucky, thread the needle so to speak. But even then it hardly works out in our favor. Favorable patterns just end up cold/dry to warm/wet....
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This thing isn't even in Nam's timeframe yet....hopefully it doesn't go too far north, lol
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Not in my house....the 11 and 6 year old boy have made sure we are familiar with that. Wayyyy too often..... With regards to the 6th, seems like the GFS has been playing catch up on the speed of the system. Quicker it gets here, the less established the confluence is?
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Impressive squall line for anytime of the year and to think this is the last day of the year.....
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At least 6 bright flashes and really loud rolling thunder....the thunder lasts for like at least 20 seconds And it's only 40⁰....
