Spanks45

yeah, their automated forecasts are becoming less reliable....Even my 12 year old mentioned, wasn't it supposed to be sunny today?

I mean if we keep shutting down climate studies, closing facilities (NCAR) and "burning" climate data, it obviously means it isn't real.....It happens all the time is the new response and will be backed up by the "new" data, complete with black sharpies that of course shows "it's all normal" But back to current discussion, hope it snows some time around Christmas, otherwise let it warm up so kids can play outside and travel isn't disrupted

if its marginal around here, I think we all know which direction this is going......

EPS is a bit better, GEFS look worse.....a lot of chaos post 10 days, might be something there in the 10-12 day range with the brief spike in PNA, dip in the NAO?

timber goes the trough in the west.....I feel like we have seen this before and know how it ends, doesn't mean it won't snow but sure does make it difficult

One way to look at it, sure is nice to have the cold air close by. Its seems like we haven't had that for years.....But on the flip side, that is a lot of warm air nearby as well. So yes, there will most likely be a lot of have and have nots moving forward. Hopefully since we have suffered for the past 4 years, hopefully this sets up somewhere in PA and we can all rejoice. But I as well as many know it doesn't work that way, soooo.....We watch

2.5" on the west side of Southbury... @The 4 Seasons

Looks like close to 2 inches, will measure a bit later....the front must have just gone through, starting to get breezy and the temp went from 29.5 to 28.2 over the last half hour.

I have seen this on quite a few models, this area of lower precip totals. Dry air, filtering down the valley? Hope its wrong....flurries flying here 29.2⁰

hrrr @ 0z looks nice for SWCT, would be nice to have a system trend a bit better at go time vs going the other way

Storm after storm, followed by cold....at that rate I would be ok with Tip's flowers by February

AI was cold for a while around that time period and has since flipped....can't say I believe it anymore than any other model at this point.

If there isn't any snow on the ground, please let the GFS have a clue....

Just get some snow on the ground that covers the brown grass, at least for a couple days...not whining about a blizzard here. Last year the only thing that hung around was the 4 inch glacier. Made sledding useless despite the cold temps, come on mother nature, the young kids need it....

I have been saying for years now, especially down here....doesn't matter what model it is, in the mid range, take the least snowiest model and it will be correct....works almost every single time, its laughable at this point.

I miss the old days of little access to models, things were more of a surprise when they happened and less of a disappointment when they didn't. I mean, I know I am the same way, I might get 12 inches of snow, but feel empty because the models were showing 18....before I feel like I can't enjoy the fact that it is snowing most of the time because expectations take over. Sure I could just leave the board and stay away from the models 4 times per day, but it is an addiction with no help, lol

It doesn't help that the past 4 years have been below to insanely below average, getting porked in every possible way. And here we are again finding new ways to miss snow, so definitely a lot of angst in SNE for sure. I understand why meteorologically we are missing out, but never realized that for an area that averages 45-50 inches per year that we have to get lucky, just to hit average. I always assumed that it was the other way around, 2014/15 was luck....hopefully we snap out of it soon and we end up running the table the rest of the year, but the hangover from the past 4 years is hanging on and will be tough to snap out of

Honestly, I don't like how cold it has been the past month and a half....At some point, the switch is going to flip and my worry is it will be sometime mid to late January through February during our climo snowfall periods. I would almost rather have this time period be close to average heading into the holidays. Despite what averages show, my firewood burn rate has been at an all time high here, lol...Here is to me being wrong, I am quite ok with that and will be first to call myself out

outside of a rogue blizzard, looks like we are well on our way to another below to well below average winter with regards to snowfall....cool stuff

3.9⁰, might trickle down a bit more before the sun comes over the hill. Love it when the moles hills are frozen solid causing you to stub your toe and trip randomly in the yard....

It was steady for a while down here, hanging around 19⁰, skies cleared, now its off to the races... 13.3⁰ currently

It just looks so simple, right? Not waiting for phasing, this and that needs to go right before snow starts falling type deal....just some energy passing to our south and cold air in place.

and what is interesting about that, is why? Why so triggered about someone like her?

It seems like for the past 4 years this has been the theme...at what point is it bad luck vs the new norm?

Seeing how the snows are beginning to show up in VA and NC, it won't be long until the gulf coast gets their storm again....Same pattern, just a different year. We sure can't seem to do marginal anymore and now the somewhat newly added, too cold to snow around here. Clearly something is going on....Other snowless periods were just too dry, now we deal with warm/wet, cold/dry pattern