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Spanks45

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Everything posted by Spanks45

  1. Spanks45
    Definitely looks like it is ticking east too at 12z, still spreads precip well west into western New york
  2. Spanks45
    The RGEM looked like it started shuffling east at 6z.....Not that I put too much into that model, but it was quite steady for a while until then.
  3. Spanks45
    The past 4 years has engraved that in my mind at this point, hard to shake that gut feeling that all snow will fail around here.....Drink half full thought is that maybe we score both and leads into a 2-3 week blitz. Jury is still out though
  4. Spanks45
    Quite surprised how that looked....it was west with Saturday too, but would sacrifice Saturday for the look Sunday. The timing is odd too, snowing here on Sunday, early morning
  5. Spanks45
    Yeah, one of these years we will make a run....I scored more 16"+ events living in Delaware for 7 years than I have being up here for 10 years...odd times
  6. Spanks45
    Uncle is a really clean whiff.....
  7. Spanks45
    look at the timing difference between the CMC and the GFS....it seems it is a totally different system with the CMC
  8. Spanks45
    check out the moisture profiles between the 2....hopefully the AI isn't missing something. I feel like it has had issues with drier sides of systems? Too expansive with precip fields? Maybe I am making that up....
  9. Spanks45
    This might be the best test so far, hopefully they are correct this time around....I have seen the regular GFS flop within 48 hrs, so who knows
  10. Spanks45
    Regular old GFS not so much....
  11. Spanks45
    yeah, I am lower elevation (160ish), so these borderline setups with weak rates never do well regardless of the time of year, unless it is during the evening or at night
  12. Spanks45
    Yesterday I was hoping to break 20 inches for the season by Monday, but that looks like a long shot at this point. Hopefully Saturday is more than just white rain.... Knock on wood, but I feel like WOR has been pretty lucky with these meager systems this year
  13. Spanks45
    Nice looking lows southwest of the center....been fooled by the GEFS recently, so will take it for now
  14. Spanks45
    A whopping 41.9⁰ here, was hoping for one last warm day...
  15. Spanks45
    Euro looks like garbage, good stuff....now if this was reversed, Euro was showing a snowstorm and all the others were OTS, guess which way it would go? Consensus doesn't even matter anymore, the model that shows the lowest chance of snowfall ends up verifying in the end. Can't make this stuff up
  16. Spanks45
    Just trying to stay positive as we are damp and cold outside today....anything to stay away from brown glaciers later on. Saturday looks decent for us, for now at least. Would love to grab 1-3, before Sunday
  17. Spanks45
    wonder if we get some light snow Saturday that never really stops, light flurries and snizzle until what ever shows up on Sunday...days and days of yore.....
  18. Spanks45
    This seems to be the setup where a little southeast ridging can go a long way...too much and it ends up hugging, too little and a scraper
  19. Spanks45
    Or better yet, joins the party, only to lose it at 18z...but in all seriousness, can we just lay down a solid pack region wide before the cold sets in?
  20. Spanks45
    Shift that west WOR needs in on it too....plenty of time to go too Although, how much faith are we putting in the GFS? I feel like we have been shoveling a lot of fantasy snow this year so far from the GFS. How far west can it go? Hopefully this isnt another congrats Western New York
  21. Spanks45
    Gfs, classic run summing up the last 4 years....cold, cold, cold only to warm up and rain.
  22. Spanks45
    We had a January thaw, right on cue...but it came and left this disaster, hopefully we can work on it some more before the arctic revisits the area. Makes for taking the dog out at night quite the adventure.
  23. Spanks45
    I hope so...If it was me, I would prefer the snow to come now before any cold sets in. Not sure I wanna go through 2 weeks of crazy cold, have an overrunning event of snow then melt it a couple days later...
  24. Spanks45
    I think the discussion between several and few pretty much sums up the rest of January....yikes
  25. Spanks45
    Wow, yeah that was quite the increase in precip region wide....maybe we are trending
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