Spanks45

GFS almost there...you can almost argue the low chased convection off the OBX and should have a low where the Euro has it.....

I might be wrong, it may completely fold at 12z....

Looks like better interaction around hr 90

Yeah if you loop the last 4 runs, you can see the subtle shifts taking place.....might not be this run, but by 0z tonight?

So as of now the GFS is on its own? Man what a victory lap it could take if it somehow comes out on top....

I actually want this 'pack' gone...there is a solid 2 inches of ice in many spots, foot prints look like fossils from dinosaurs. Quite dangerous taking the dog out. The south facing parts of the yard are mostly gone though....start fresh on Thursday

Yeah, I wanna see some flinches by the GFS in the next 24 hrs. I have noticed with the GFS, especially this year. It becomes stubborn once it latches on to a solution. It did this in January, when every other model showed a miss for the most part. On the other hand despite a few Euro OP runs, it was mostly ots and never wavered. The the GFS started to buckle and eventually caved. Now here we are, the roles are reversed, but the Euro has support this time from its own ensembles and other guidance. The GFS has the, icon? Not saying this is coming yet, I think we need to get this weekend's storm figured out in the models before we can get a better consensus. This storm tomorrow isn't some 1005 low coming through, it's a rapidly deepening system that will probably have some affect down stream to our system on Thursday....

I heard some birds chirping the past couple days that I haven't in a while. My maple trees have also doubled their production....nature knows

I mean, it sort of reminds of how it used to be tracking coastal storms. GFS is ots, the CMC is amped, and the Euro is somewhere in the middle...then the JMA comes to break the tie. We shall see, might need to see how deep this weekend's system ends up and where it goes. The CMC is turning the cover 5 days from now...it really isn't that far off.

GFS whiffs, but looks a bit better than 12z...see what the ensembles say

I'm right around 23", so half way to average at this point, double digits here and some in March it who knows, could be nearing average at that point....One can dream I guess, long range actually looks active with cold nearby, so who knows

If this is truly coming, you know darn well we will start sweating the ticks NW, to the point it gets too close to western Long Island. Some of those far western leaners in the ensembles should get some attention. Hopefully it doesn't end up congrats upstate NY and PF....

Would be nice to have that capture a bit further south for us WOR folks...but will take that look, no complaints after the last few seasons

Doesn't disappoint....at least it is the GFS having coastal issues for now

The Canadian has a 1060 high dipping into the plains...Definitely room for a fluff bomb if this can get its act together

I'm still around freezing @15z on Sunday despite roasting aloft....

It actually worked out almost perfectly today. Highest temp is right now, 42 degrees and the sun came out as it was setting. Probably 3ish inches on the north side 1ish still on the south facing areas. Now all that is left will become a glacier...

wow, yeah I just saw that....still plenty of time I guess to iron out those couple of degrees....would be nice to keep the 'pack', perfect world would be to pick up 3-5 inches, ice it before any warmup and rain

ha, never....I did go back and take a look at what it did with this current system and honestly it did pretty well 42 hrs out, temp wise at least.

Not sure how good the thermals are on that model, but from what i can see we barely get above freezing, if at all down here. Does the cold air drain down here depending on the system?

3-5 for most of CT, we take that considering our largest storm here is 4"....sad season for sure

Devil's advocate, skynet also showed a flatter pattern with the current storms and quite snowy at times. Not sure it is much better than the rest....

983 south of Watertown NY isn't going to help many....

I mean, it is the nam so bouncing around it is its thing, so maybe there is still a chance to keep some pack around here...we are currently adding moisture to it and by tonight will be a glacier

Same thing down here, just a different a different storm, head fake gets us back in the game only this time the front end snow will weaken as we get closer and the low will strengthen and make the weather just miserable enough not to enjoy some snow and ice.