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Spanks45

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Everything posted by Spanks45

  1. Spanks45
    I think we will know in an hour or so with that next batch of heavy precip. Need to flip that over to snow...most sites around me are 35-36 degrees, so it's close at least
  2. Spanks45
    And if it doesn't, I might never believe it again with regards to snow...how could it be that wrong, that close in?
  3. Spanks45
    What is the gfs doing down here in swCT? That is a lot of snow, even on the kuchera maps.
  4. Spanks45
    Moderate rain continues, temps still dropping...down to 37.8⁰, 0.19" of rain so far
  5. Spanks45
    Thanks! Topped out at 44⁰ today, down to 39⁰ now, hopefully we keep dropping as the heavier precip comes in. Keep things close at least.
  6. Spanks45
    Down to 39⁰, moderate rain....already 0.10" in the Davis.
  7. Spanks45
    how is your confidence out here in the land of Luke and I? It is nice seeing the banding showing up out here...
  8. Spanks45
    seriously, and cooler out here to start....does it still have a short term cool bias? I thought they took care of that recently.
  9. Spanks45
    I like that banding out here...please GFS have a clue
  10. Spanks45
    I will say this, every single model has shown something different, every 6 hours...So honestly who knows. Nowcast time, with a side of model watching. The 3k has disagreed with its cousin the entire time, except for maybe 12z yesterday. Not saying we are getting much if anything, but it is really close to at least "something"....Nam sort of, kind of looks like the GFS @ 6z, so there is something at least
  11. Spanks45
    That is odd....Thanks anyways. From a meteorological standpoint, it will be interesting to watch this storm unfold. I expect mostly rain here, but I would assume some fun "positive" busts are going to occur somewhere. Hopefully for all of CT of course, lol...
  12. Spanks45
    how about dxr? Thanks!
  13. Spanks45
    That was the "snowiest" run the GFS has had for this area, for nearly 36 hrs...interesting
  14. Spanks45
    So just how good is the resolution? I mean, I know they are clown maps....but even a shift southeast of 10 miles make a ridiculous difference in a few inches to power outage type snows....
  15. Spanks45
    This season has been easy to forecast for our area. Choose the least snowiest model within 24 hrs and it will be correct. No reason to change at this point. Maybe the official death of La Nina changes it this time? I may just put all my chips in on the 18z hrrr....
  16. Spanks45
    Kutchie is surprisingly nice as well, 2ft+ in your neck of the woods
  17. Spanks45
    Well I guess CT just got NAM'd with that solution....hrrrr and Nam, great way to start of 12z
  18. Spanks45
    I like how it flips to snow in early hours of Tuesday morning. Get some accumulations before the sun comes up...maximize what ever potential this thing has.
  19. Spanks45
    Wow....sitting at hr 48, thing of beauty.
  20. Spanks45
    I know I can me a worrier, but I can see how we are screwed, multiple ways when this thing is all over. The red flags out here in SWCT are still flying high. After the bust the other night, needless to say I will go into this expecting slush regardless of what models show....Eastern areas that get the deepening low pressure are looking good. Here, inverted lobe heavy rains to banded snow/rain showers and 36⁰ degrees on Tuesday. Hope I am wrong....
  21. Spanks45
    So Nam 3k with a side of CMC....sounds good to me
  22. Spanks45
    Haven't seen it yet. But I would assume so....although that max qpf and snowfall area near us and westward continues to show up in guidance. It was still there on the GEFS, despite the awful OP
  23. Spanks45
    3-11-23 stamp of approval, hopefully we have to up those totals before game time
  24. Spanks45
    Stripe of 4-6" of qpf in that band...very NEMO like, wish I was up here to experience that one
  25. Spanks45
    Either we are completely ruined from this winter or we do actually know how this works in our area. But, almost every piece of guidance has 12-18 inches for us. The old me would be dancing in the streets. Yet here we are less than 90 hrs out, I don't believe a single one of them. I get it, clown maps are just those clowns, but I am realistically expecting some slush, maybe lucky with a couple inches. Even the new RGEM has 16 inches around here....
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