Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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That 970s storm from Saturday, heading toward Bermuda is going to shove the next one right into Central PA.... -
This is about the time where everyone has checked out, assuming the Euro is going to put the nail in the coffin. Only it ends up dangling hope for a come back.....guess we shall see in about 5 minutes. The southern crew still has a chance for Saturday at least....
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The process already started, but regardless of snow or no snow....That said, I fully expect crappy weather like today. Just enough wind with the sun to negate the warm/fuzzy feelings. I think it would be better for all of us if all of these "threats" would just go away at this point instead of teasing us with the what could have been.... sorry.....
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Saturday system was odd with the CMC/Euro farther SE than the GFS....At least early next week has the GFS/GEFS southeast and the EURO/CMC further NW(fits their bias at this range, if those biases still exist enough to have a wholesale effect on the forecast around here)
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Because we know deep down early next week isn't happening either. And the seasonal progression is making each threat less likely. Watching the GEFS trend southward each run tells you where Saturday is headed. Unless a Hail Mary occurs, this season is pretty much a wrap if Saturday doesn't snow.
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Despite the fading look on Saturday, the GEFS still look OK for a small to moderate event down here. But, this season! We know it will be wrong, pick the least snowiest model and it will be correct in the end
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I'm down to one last tap....and the last hand is already close to the mat at the moment, sheesh...My equation for this season has been simple, take the model that produces the least amount of snow and it will be correct for SWCT
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I know this system overnight tonight was never going to be big, 3-5 inches if we were lucky.....but it started out north of us and see where it has landed, the block means business. I will assume most gets suppressed until the block begins to fade. Then we need something timed well or it will end up to our NW with the permanent troughiness in the west
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I love snow as much as the rest, but at this point as terrible as this winter has been combined with the warm sun and singing birds this morning...I am ok with being skunked. This entire winter, we have had 1 model cycle look good here and there, followed by 50 lessons on how not to snow for the WOR crowd. This one has followed the same script, even when it has snowed it has underperformed. Persistence I guess....
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That day 5ish storm gives us 6-10 too.....not a blockbuster but not too bad either.
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Ensembles seem to be keeping some higher heights SW of Greenland now in the 12-16 day range. Maybe too aggressive at removing that -NAO? Just something to watch as we move further into March. I only need 8-10 inches to surpass 2019/20 season totals. Still can't remember that season being so terrible down here....
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This just popped up on my memories, 8 years ago....what snowy times down here, no where near what east of us had, but still impressive. Almost 25" base in our yard on March 4th.
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The storm on it's heels is kicking the system out before it can ever establish itself. I don't believe the Euro had that.
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Always a chance, but very slim here. I am roughly @ 10", average 45ish. Would be a great ride if we did get there.
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Gfs under 100 hrs now with a swath of 4-8 snowfall for SNE. Can it be right?
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Toast....we wait until late week/next weekend. Despite the ups and downs, the gut knows how this ends up down here.
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And just like that 5 inches of snow has been reduced to leftover piles. Currently sunny and 50⁰
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ha, they can be wise, especially staring down the face of a storm.....
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18z HRRR still drunk down here......Definitely a cold bias after 18 hours it seems, low placement looks similar to most, besides the NAM of course
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There is definitely cold air left over, what seems to be over most of North America, but not bitterly cold either. There doesn't really seem to be a reload mechanism either, especially after the equinox. So fingers crossed we roll right into Spring by the end of the month
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can we just go out with a bang and bring on spring? Seems like the NAO goes poof afterwards...
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Down here in Monroe CT....looks like grauple the size of peas falling from the sky..impressive
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So are we going to get 3 inches of sleet? Of course if the Euro is right. It won't much matter, but the sleet single is pretty strong around here at the moment.
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Euro is not what it used to be, so at this point it is a wait and see how things shake out over the next 24 hrs....If all models look like the Euro at some point and hold the look, then maybe it is correct. But I have seen the Euro be wrong and sometimes way wrong more often recently. So I will take the GFS ensembles at this point and just hope they are right....Lol
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This is where it will make a move that will leave us scratching our heads as to why it becomes the coldest/snowiest model....
