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stormdragonwx

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Everything posted by stormdragonwx

  1. stormdragonwx
    Heck I saw on one of the Canadian models a couple days ago a perfect little bullseye of nothing over Benton and Washington counties while everyone all around received a foot.
  2. stormdragonwx
    Kinda starting to look like it.
  3. stormdragonwx
    I kinda got a feeling like what another poster mentioned "Lucy" might indeed pull the football at the last minute. I just can't help not liking the trends today. I was really hoping this storm would give 2011 a run for it's money for NWA. Guess we will see in 36 hours or so.
  4. stormdragonwx
    Fair enough. TSA is pretty well known to being conservative on their forecasts. Still crazy to think 14in is being "conservative" here though.
  5. stormdragonwx
    ^That still pretty much lines up with TSA's DSP page as it currently sits at this time.
  6. stormdragonwx
    Thats crazy, all the GFS ensembles still showing the area getting slammed.
  7. stormdragonwx
    Exactly this. Its been bad all winter. Seen it initialize this past week alone being way too warm so you can throw it out from the get go.
  8. stormdragonwx
    Like I said I'm betting TSA's near 3k day streak of no Blizzard Warnings Issued is about to come to an end.
  9. stormdragonwx
    So much this. I too want to get excited but I've seen it happen so many times where it looks great then 24-36 hours out the system either comes in weaker/too dry and/or takes a different track.
  10. stormdragonwx
    Just for fun I looked this up. If things pan out as they are currently trending with the precip and strong winds, many of these WFO areas with 1500+ days since a Blizzard Warning may see those numbers getting reset next week.
  11. stormdragonwx
    Fortunately a guy I follow the most out of Oklahoma is being realistic. Mike Collier at KJRH Channel 2 in Tulsa. https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/263396651804279 Travis Meyer (KOTV Channel 6 Tulsa) is also pretty cautious on what he posts too.
  12. stormdragonwx
    Spot on. And yes a couple ensemble posts were made a few pages back from the GFS and Euro. Nearly all are showing the area getting slammed. The attached image below is from the latest 18z run on the GFS.
  13. stormdragonwx
    I will agree there is huge potential for the "hypetrain" to get derailed on this. A couple more days will hopefully tell us for sure which way this goes.
  14. stormdragonwx
    Problem with the NAM myself and a few others have seen and noted is that its been initializing a bit too warm for this area around here for the past few days. Take that as you will. Might have to consult the RAP, HRRR, and short range Canadian (RDPS) for more reliability. I do also have concerns for dry air intrusion especially with how cold we will be getting by that time.
  15. stormdragonwx
    Some fun with the GFS ensembles here, if it doesn't snow next week somethings wrong.
  16. stormdragonwx
    Here it is... (GFSv16)
  17. stormdragonwx
    The TSA DSP graphic map has both fire spread danger and snow on the ground at the same time. Can someone explain that? lol
  18. stormdragonwx
    So apparently there is a microscale incident ongoing in Springdale, Arkansas with snow being reported there but nowhere else in the general area of NW Arkansas. https://twitter.com/4029Darby/status/1359292728794882049?s=20
  19. stormdragonwx
    Yeah just took a peek at it myself. We shall see what the NAM does when it comes into range. Edit: StormChazer beat me to it lol
  20. stormdragonwx
    Yeah we are gonna have to see an extra push of that Arctic air or some clearing otherwise we are just gonna remain stuck with cold rain/mist thru the duration of this. I'm not sure unless we get a big storm system thru here if evaporative cooling will be enough.
  21. stormdragonwx
    Hate to be that guy but I got a feeling this whole thing is gonna be another bust if you are expecting a major storm system, e.g we will see marginally cold air with too much dry air aloft and a less than ideal jet stream pattern for Lows to track and strengthen as they move over us. The models being all over the place for this have not helped any.
  22. stormdragonwx
    Also in 2011 Nowata, OK got down to -31 which is an all time record low for that state.
  23. stormdragonwx
    I'd love to see a winter outdo 2011 in my lifetime but I have a feeling that will be hard to come by. We will just have to wait and see.
  24. stormdragonwx
    Agreed 2020 was mostly a bust. Too soon to make a 2021 thread? With the strong La Nina pattern taking shape we may be in for a very interesting spring.
  25. stormdragonwx
    It's still a week out so obviously it's gonna change a lot. The timing would be fitting as this would be almost 10 years to the day of the 2011 blizzard that brought upwards of 2 feet of snow in NW AR.
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