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stormdragonwx

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Everything posted by stormdragonwx

  1. stormdragonwx
    I feel your pain. Its why I was so cynical on this last system that came thru earlier in the month. lol
  2. stormdragonwx
    Being in Fayetteville I have to say "yuck" to current trends. lol Thankfully its only Sunday so hopefully that freezing rain line nudges further south away from me in the coming days. (sorry for you guys further south though)
  3. stormdragonwx
    Yeah upon further investigation I am thinking that's also why the Snow Depth parameter is going nuts. Its not taking into account how much of that could likely be sleet. https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall
  4. stormdragonwx
    I got it mixed up with that 18z NAM run I posted about. The GFS is however coming thru now.
  5. stormdragonwx
    Ironically the 12Z GFS Snow Depth parameter is going bonkers. Depicts a secondary system moving in over the weekend. This reminds me of the 2010 & 2011 winters when we had back to back systems at the end of January going into February. The 10:1 and Kuchera parameters are depicting the I-44 corridor getting slammed with nearly two feet in spots if this holds.
  6. stormdragonwx
    Lovely, unless its depicting a slower storm system, its looking like the latest NAM is calling for more ice than snow. Granted its just coming into range. Note its valid Thurs morning.
  7. stormdragonwx
    That escalated quickly. Was just 1-2" for most of the area yesterday.
  8. stormdragonwx
    Yeah I dunno what happened there. But I was hoping I could edit it before someone noticed. You ninja'd me lol now I probably jinxed it.
  9. stormdragonwx
    We got a few days out still but fingers crossed its more snow and less ice. Funny thing is I've been lucky as I missed the 2007 event in E OK since I lived in NWA at the time and then I missed the big 2009 event in NWA as I had just moved to Tulsa the previous fall. lol
  10. stormdragonwx
    With the way its looking, I will be surprised to see that much. Dry air intrusion is really brutal. Saw dewpoints in the teens around here.
  11. stormdragonwx
    I knew not to expect much to begin with but I'm thinking tonight's system is gonna be a bust for E OK and W AR. Too much dry air.
  12. stormdragonwx
    Historically speaking... yes. When I was a kid March used to be around here as well. Not so much in recent years though.
  13. stormdragonwx
    Yeah that was a pretty fun little surprise snow squall. Got a quick inch out just east of Fayetteville.
  14. stormdragonwx
    And that's all she wrote. Got 3" officially here in east Fayetteville. Measured in 4 different spots to verify.
  15. stormdragonwx
    Winter Storm Warning expanded west to encompass all of NW AR now. SPC also put out a Meso Discussion regarding a Heavy Snow Threat increasing for much of MO/AR.
  16. stormdragonwx
    Snow has reached Drake Field in Fayetteville as of 4am. Temp at 33 degrees which seems cooler than what was forecasted this soon. Gravette, AR reported the changeover about an hour ago with heavy wet flakes. TSA also updated their Decision Support graphic.
  17. stormdragonwx
    The model data is lining up with the currently ongoing precip in KS. Another good sign if you want the snow totals to verfiy. In fact, moderate to heavy snow is occurring already just north of Wichita on GR3.
  18. stormdragonwx
    Amended my above post. Crazy to note too that rural areas like Kingston and Jasper in Newton Co, AR could see upwards of 20". EDIT: The WRF is showing 30" lol
  19. stormdragonwx
    You guys beat me to it. lol Interesting development being less than 12 hours out now. 8-15" being shown over the metro part of NW Arkansas via the RAP, 3km NAM, and HRRR 00z runs. The 12k NAM is a bit more conservative showing 4-7". There's also talk of convective banding/thundersnow developing over this area. Feb 9th, 2011 all over again?
  20. stormdragonwx
    ^Yeah I think this system is even confusing the forecast data algorithms and not just meteorologists. Been seeing odd anomalies going on with the short range convective models like that. Same with weird spotty accumulation maps being rendered.
  21. stormdragonwx
    HRRR showed under an inch for much of NW AR and NE OK, it will need to be watched closely but myself and my colleague at the TV Station I chase with is considering it a fluke ATTM. This low still has a lot of potential still to overperform.
  22. stormdragonwx
    A word of caution. Some of the data is showing a nose of warm air filtering northwestward from the I-40 corridor which could kill totals for much of NW AR and E OK. This could be our Lucy for those in this area. Shouldn't be an Ice Storm threat but could still be 33 and rain.
  23. stormdragonwx
    Hopefully that gets extended west.
  24. stormdragonwx
    Yeah been burned too many times personally in the past, its why I have always remained cautious ever since this system showed up on the data.
  25. stormdragonwx
    Same with TSA. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDTSA&e=202201122039 Though what I always do is go over all the modeled snowfall amounts, then average them out and thats the ballpark range of what you may be getting for the forecast area. If the pattern holds an average of 3-5" seems plausible over much of the area.
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