stormdragonwx

I too am very interested in seeing how this winter will play out. I've noticed that active seasons seem to come in pairs. Take recent examples of 2002-2003/2003-2004 then 2009-2010/2010-2011. They usually run about a decade apart so we are due.

Latest GFS is showing a probable CAT3/4 taking an eerily similar track to Katrina smacking NOLA... however, obviously we should expect this to shift around for a couple more days in both track and intensity. Either way the gulf is bath water ATTM. I expect explosive organization and intensification in this storms development regardless of where it goes.

I follow Mike Collier on FB and he posted that this is the third slowest May for tornadoes in history for Oklahoma. https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/329754805168463

^lol maybe this means the summer death ridge will be delayed and us chasers will have more opportunities to get out this season.

These outflow boundaries might make things interesting later on.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here but I don't trust the CAM's that have been showing a lot of convective overturning as I've been observing the storms out north and west on GR3 for the past few hours and they appear to be weakening and moving away from the risk area. If there's no redevelopment later tonight into the morning then this setup could be explosive tomorrow during peak daytime heating. With the atmosphere we got in place (70+ dews, plenty of shear, and 4k+ CAPE) If there's enough of a cap then I don't see how we couldn't have a couple tornadic supercells before the squall line develops.

A nice looking Tornadic Supercell really got its act together in the past 20-30 mins in the TX Panhandle east of AMA with nearly no chasers on it.

Yeah I would think Mod risk with at minimum a 10% hatched for tornadoes. It is May after all.

Crazy to think its been 10 years. I did a video touring the damage path back then. I also made a little tribute.

null (moved post)

^This. IIRC May 3rd, 1999 started out as a Slight Risk that morning and then went to High by that afternoon. EDIT: Here it is https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-19990503-summary

Agreed with the above. There's been a drought of sorts for a few years now. The two (most recent) days that I would consider a notable good plains chase day that wasn't an ugly HP mess for me were 5/24/2016 and 5/18/2017. These were more of a localized outbreak/cyclic supercell. Another clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyUeZku1sbU

EF1 tornado rating confirmed on the AR/OK state line west of Fort Smith from last night's storms.

Tornado Warning just south of McAlester

Pretty classic satellite view.

Enhanced Risk for today. Will the 5% Tor continue it's streak? Many noteworthy days so far this year have happened on a 5%.

Who thinks our third High Risk will come this month? What day?

This was my view of the DFW storm as it came in from Weatherford.

Surprised this isn't Tor Warned. Storm quickly got it's act together.

Yeah I chose to sit this one out. Was actually considering NW KS last night as well. Tomorrow doesn't look much better but I might look into it. Main thing keeping me at bay these two days is excessive cloud cover and messy storm modes.

Here's the current D2 outlook. Got a slight risk area with a 5 percent tornado. Storm chasing potential is trending more and more into the "meh" category for me. Might sit this one out but I'll have to look at the data closely tonight.

Yeah its quite depressing, especially if you missed out on this past Friday.

Lol this is starting to sound like a rinse and repeat of 2020. One good photogenic storm chase event in April then it all shuts down in May.

Interesting. Right back in the same area as yesterday's event. Though I somehow doubt we will see a repeat performance. Either way I'd love to get redemption for having to miss yesterday.

Welp looks like my virtual target area verified. And photogenic too. Couldn't get out because of work. Congrats to those who got on the cyclic tornadic supercell in the SE TX panhandle today.