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stormdragonwx

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Everything posted by stormdragonwx

  1. stormdragonwx
    Yeah its not often you see Ensembles that are pretty much in full agreement (save for a couple members) that the area is about to be slammed with snow. The 00z was the same way. I'd say its locked in.
  2. stormdragonwx
    Ironically for whatever reason he pulled back on the totals on his latest update. With the exception of Benton and Carrol County he has the NWA area getting 2-4" max now. EDIT: Though I think I saw him mention something about the 850mb level getting too warm causing more sleet than snow. Theres also the chance of the dry slot being stronger than indicated.
  3. stormdragonwx
    If anybody is on Facebook KNWA Meteorologist Dan Skoff is doing a very detailed live discussion. https://www.facebook.com/danskoff/videos/692624532115265
  4. stormdragonwx
    heh that would be typical, I always suspect it because that's what always seem to happen here
  5. stormdragonwx
    Yeah 14"-24" was common along I-44. Then a few days later (Feb 8th-9th) a similar storm dropped nearly the same amount along the 412 corridor into NW AR. That was also around the time the record -31 low was recorded in Nowata, OK. December 2013 was a decent storm system too. On the low end this storm could be comparable to that one as well.
  6. stormdragonwx
    I'm betting this will be comparable to the Jan 2010 storm. EDIT: Now if we can get the cold air in here sooner on all levels and not get dry slotted unlike this past system we had earlier in January, I can see this being a redux of the Groundhog Day 2011 storm.
  7. stormdragonwx
    The Euro just smiled on the NW AR peeps wanting a lot of snow. Looks like heavy snow slams the area on midnight Thursday. (06z UTC) Snow then lingers well into Friday too. (accumulation map shows Noonish Friday with flurries possibly remaining) Also almost every GFS ensemble is showing the 4 state region getting slammed with heavy snow. Incredible.
  8. stormdragonwx
    Lol the waffling of the forecast continues. TSA massively pulled back on amounts.
  9. stormdragonwx
    On a side note Oklahoma had a 4.5m earthquake this morning. Earthquakes and big winter storms? Feels like 2011 again.
  10. stormdragonwx
    IIRC was it last February's system the NAM did terribly on? I remember one winter event where every other model did well on forecast location and amounts but the NAM was pretty much out to lunch doing its own thing the whole time.
  11. stormdragonwx
    I feel your pain. Its why I was so cynical on this last system that came thru earlier in the month. lol
  12. stormdragonwx
    Being in Fayetteville I have to say "yuck" to current trends. lol Thankfully its only Sunday so hopefully that freezing rain line nudges further south away from me in the coming days. (sorry for you guys further south though)
  13. stormdragonwx
    Yeah upon further investigation I am thinking that's also why the Snow Depth parameter is going nuts. Its not taking into account how much of that could likely be sleet. https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall
  14. stormdragonwx
    I got it mixed up with that 18z NAM run I posted about. The GFS is however coming thru now.
  15. stormdragonwx
    Ironically the 12Z GFS Snow Depth parameter is going bonkers. Depicts a secondary system moving in over the weekend. This reminds me of the 2010 & 2011 winters when we had back to back systems at the end of January going into February. The 10:1 and Kuchera parameters are depicting the I-44 corridor getting slammed with nearly two feet in spots if this holds.
  16. stormdragonwx
    Lovely, unless its depicting a slower storm system, its looking like the latest NAM is calling for more ice than snow. Granted its just coming into range. Note its valid Thurs morning.
  17. stormdragonwx
    That escalated quickly. Was just 1-2" for most of the area yesterday.
  18. stormdragonwx
    Yeah I dunno what happened there. But I was hoping I could edit it before someone noticed. You ninja'd me lol now I probably jinxed it.
  19. stormdragonwx
    We got a few days out still but fingers crossed its more snow and less ice. Funny thing is I've been lucky as I missed the 2007 event in E OK since I lived in NWA at the time and then I missed the big 2009 event in NWA as I had just moved to Tulsa the previous fall. lol
  20. stormdragonwx
    With the way its looking, I will be surprised to see that much. Dry air intrusion is really brutal. Saw dewpoints in the teens around here.
  21. stormdragonwx
    I knew not to expect much to begin with but I'm thinking tonight's system is gonna be a bust for E OK and W AR. Too much dry air.
  22. stormdragonwx
    Historically speaking... yes. When I was a kid March used to be around here as well. Not so much in recent years though.
  23. stormdragonwx
    Yeah that was a pretty fun little surprise snow squall. Got a quick inch out just east of Fayetteville.
  24. stormdragonwx
    And that's all she wrote. Got 3" officially here in east Fayetteville. Measured in 4 different spots to verify.
  25. stormdragonwx
    Winter Storm Warning expanded west to encompass all of NW AR now. SPC also put out a Meso Discussion regarding a Heavy Snow Threat increasing for much of MO/AR.
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