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stormdragonwx

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  1. stormdragonwx
    Here's the GEM-GDPS after that 2nd system rolls thru using Kuchera.
  2. stormdragonwx
    FWIW as I mentioned a few pages back, I don't really trust the NAM at all, most notably after how it initialized a few days ago saying it was in the high 30's when it was already 28. And as others mentioned the CAMS are not always the best with winter weather. The GFS, v16, GDPS, and Euro have stuck to their guns on this event for the most part.
  3. stormdragonwx
    Those were with the PC but I've done it with my Android its just a bit trickier to accomplish. You have to tap and hold the white area at the top of the graphic to get the "save image" option with mine.
  4. stormdragonwx
    QPF between GFS and v16 120 hours out. EDIT: 150 hours out quickly shows nearly 2 inches of QPF https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021021300&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_sc&p=qpf_acc&m=gfs_para
  5. stormdragonwx
    You're welcome. lol
  6. stormdragonwx
    Agreed its totally weird. We get one anomalous once in a decade event like in 2011 then shafted the rest of the time. For us NWA folks I'm holding out hope on the GFS Ensembles. As far as I have seen every member on every run shows us getting at least 6 inches. Here is the 18z, only one that scares me is #2 lol
  7. stormdragonwx
    Heck I saw on one of the Canadian models a couple days ago a perfect little bullseye of nothing over Benton and Washington counties while everyone all around received a foot.
  8. stormdragonwx
    Kinda starting to look like it.
  9. stormdragonwx
    I kinda got a feeling like what another poster mentioned "Lucy" might indeed pull the football at the last minute. I just can't help not liking the trends today. I was really hoping this storm would give 2011 a run for it's money for NWA. Guess we will see in 36 hours or so.
  10. stormdragonwx
    Fair enough. TSA is pretty well known to being conservative on their forecasts. Still crazy to think 14in is being "conservative" here though.
  11. stormdragonwx
    ^That still pretty much lines up with TSA's DSP page as it currently sits at this time.
  12. stormdragonwx
    Thats crazy, all the GFS ensembles still showing the area getting slammed.
  13. stormdragonwx
    Exactly this. Its been bad all winter. Seen it initialize this past week alone being way too warm so you can throw it out from the get go.
  14. stormdragonwx
    Like I said I'm betting TSA's near 3k day streak of no Blizzard Warnings Issued is about to come to an end.
  15. stormdragonwx
    So much this. I too want to get excited but I've seen it happen so many times where it looks great then 24-36 hours out the system either comes in weaker/too dry and/or takes a different track.
  16. stormdragonwx
    Just for fun I looked this up. If things pan out as they are currently trending with the precip and strong winds, many of these WFO areas with 1500+ days since a Blizzard Warning may see those numbers getting reset next week.
  17. stormdragonwx
    Fortunately a guy I follow the most out of Oklahoma is being realistic. Mike Collier at KJRH Channel 2 in Tulsa. https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/263396651804279 Travis Meyer (KOTV Channel 6 Tulsa) is also pretty cautious on what he posts too.
  18. stormdragonwx
    Spot on. And yes a couple ensemble posts were made a few pages back from the GFS and Euro. Nearly all are showing the area getting slammed. The attached image below is from the latest 18z run on the GFS.
  19. stormdragonwx
    I will agree there is huge potential for the "hypetrain" to get derailed on this. A couple more days will hopefully tell us for sure which way this goes.
  20. stormdragonwx
    Problem with the NAM myself and a few others have seen and noted is that its been initializing a bit too warm for this area around here for the past few days. Take that as you will. Might have to consult the RAP, HRRR, and short range Canadian (RDPS) for more reliability. I do also have concerns for dry air intrusion especially with how cold we will be getting by that time.
  21. stormdragonwx
    Some fun with the GFS ensembles here, if it doesn't snow next week somethings wrong.
  22. stormdragonwx
    Here it is... (GFSv16)
  23. stormdragonwx
    The TSA DSP graphic map has both fire spread danger and snow on the ground at the same time. Can someone explain that? lol
  24. stormdragonwx
    So apparently there is a microscale incident ongoing in Springdale, Arkansas with snow being reported there but nowhere else in the general area of NW Arkansas. https://twitter.com/4029Darby/status/1359292728794882049?s=20
  25. stormdragonwx
    Yeah just took a peek at it myself. We shall see what the NAM does when it comes into range. Edit: StormChazer beat me to it lol
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