stormdragonwx

Yeah we are gonna have to see an extra push of that Arctic air or some clearing otherwise we are just gonna remain stuck with cold rain/mist thru the duration of this. I'm not sure unless we get a big storm system thru here if evaporative cooling will be enough.

Hate to be that guy but I got a feeling this whole thing is gonna be another bust if you are expecting a major storm system, e.g we will see marginally cold air with too much dry air aloft and a less than ideal jet stream pattern for Lows to track and strengthen as they move over us. The models being all over the place for this have not helped any.

Also in 2011 Nowata, OK got down to -31 which is an all time record low for that state.

I'd love to see a winter outdo 2011 in my lifetime but I have a feeling that will be hard to come by. We will just have to wait and see.

Agreed 2020 was mostly a bust. Too soon to make a 2021 thread? With the strong La Nina pattern taking shape we may be in for a very interesting spring.

It's still a week out so obviously it's gonna change a lot. The timing would be fitting as this would be almost 10 years to the day of the 2011 blizzard that brought upwards of 2 feet of snow in NW AR.

And I figured as much. 00z came back down to reality.

Was noticing today the HRRR has come into range for Wednesday's winter weather potential. While most other models (save for the Canadian) have been showing this as a mostly non-event, the HRRR just went bonkers in comparison showing 3-5" totals. I was watching the Canadian for the past few days and it was showing some potential for accumulating snow too. (1-3"). We will just have to watch for trends. This might surprise us. I know the Canadian has been doing pretty good this season.

And here I was actually thinking this winter had potential. The trend continues, sadly.

Yeah these winters anymore are like a broken record. They seem to have an interesting start then peter out after January.

Lol that was a non-event for my neighborhood again, as usual. Next!

Liking these trends for my area being less than 48 hours out. 18z GFS (v16), 12z Euro, 12z WRF, and finally the 18z NAM 3km Waiting for the 00z models to finish up their runs. I bet the WSW gets extended north and west a bit.

Lol incredible. Fayetteville getting the stiff again.

Must be having some dry air aloft. Radar showing a lot of snow over me but it's not coming down anymore.

Reporting snow here in SE Fayetteville too.

Yup typical 33 and rain again.

I was actually living in Tulsa for the 2009 one. I agree with what you said from what I saw and heard. The 2000 one that hit on Christmas Eve was pretty rough too.

Yeah I got a bad feeling this is gonna become a nasty Ice Storm for my neck of the woods. I remember the one in 2000 that hit around this time of the year.

Still 4 days out and while I have observed TSA is usually pretty cautious and conservative, they already pulled the trigger upping the amounts on the DSP graphic. Personally, I hope this doesn't morph into a crippling ice storm like what some of the models were hinting at.

Currently at work here in the Springdale, AR area. Approaching 2" now after finally changing over around 12pm.

Yeah Dan Skoff at KNWA is saying 8" in NW AR and that it might actually be conservative. All the models are showing at least 6" or more now too. That doesn't happen too often.

As I mentioned in my other post I think the best way to determine the precip accumulations taking into account for melting will be to take the 10:1 parameter and half it. The Kuchera Ratio also looks somewhat accurate to getting the real totals. Also regarding the thundersnow potential, I also do recall an event similar to this back on March 28th, 2009. I was living in Tulsa and we had a thundersnow event that day. It was just above freezing and had heavy wet flakes as a result. Got 9" in a few hours that melted to about 5" at sundown.

NAM, NAM 3k, RAP, HRRR and even the Canadian are saying its happening and upping totals/coverage overall. Might even be getting some convective thundersnow out of this. Temps are also trending colder. Though to be realistic I do think some of these totals seen here are overdoing it. Might cut the totals in half to get our real amounts due to the warm ground temps causing melting and compacting. EDIT: When you go back in and look at the Kuchera Ratio I think those will be closer to our actual amounts.

00z GFS and Euro looking interesting. TV Meteorologists also taking note of it on their social media posts.

LOL yeah...