stormdragonwx

A nice swath appearing on the 18z GFS right over 412 and 40 at 180 hrs out. Euro is possibly showing something at the tail end of its run again too. EDIT: Canadian has it too but its showing MO/KS getting it instead.

I really liked the one that gave me 14" on the 24th a few posts back. lol

Yeah in the next few days the Euro should start to come into a better range to give us a better idea.

Indeed for those wanting a White Christmas, chances are higher than normal this year for much of the area for sure. While 200+ hours is still fantasy land forecasting, the GFS has been consistently showing something happening that week. See the current 06z run valid for Christmas Eve. One thing that is for sure is the cold air WILL be in place.

I am still liking the current trends. There has been run to run consistency despite it being 200+ hours out that someone around here may get some snow Christmas week. Ensembles seem to hint at it too. The cold air WILL be in place. EDIT: Obviously, it was a total fantasy land forecast from the other day but I'd love to see this come true. Lock it in. lmao

Either way its still been over a decade. lol Though '09 was right before Christmas (like this could have the potential of being) if things set up just right. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/24dec2009_blizzard It was memorable for me as I had to race east after getting off work to stay ahead of it on 412 as I was living in Tulsa at the time and was heading back home to visit family in AR for the holidays that year. That was... interesting. lol

I'd totally take a repeat of '09. I believe that was the last time TSA issued a Blizzard Warning.

Still too far out to take serious but things might get interesting as we get around the 20th.

I was wondering when someone was gonna post this. Yeah, this is incredible. I always thought the EF scale should have better definitions in its rating process when something like this is documented. https://www.weather.gov/oun/efscale Another example IIRC is when the Moore and El Reno tornadoes ripped up highway pavement.

I can see why SPC was not going for the High risk. It was still pretty active but not insane enough to justify one.

Yazoo City and Eden, MS might be getting one momentarily. Nice couplet on the storm passing thru.

That was one of the reasons why I decided to hold off on going out. Fast storm motions, lots of trees, and limited daylight for when the storms would likely go tornadic was less than ideal to make the chase worthwhile. I have dodged a fast moving wedge at twilight out there and its not something I care to repeat.

20z update is out. They didn't pull the trigger on the high risk. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Interesting. Makes me wonder if they might nudge the mod risk area further west if that 2nd wave of supercells at sunset in AR/LA verifies.

Yeah saw that coming.

Good call too.

^Beat me to it. Not many D2 Moderates get issued, and many of those that do tend to go High Risk on the D1. Especially this time of year it seems.

If it maintains an area E of LR and along the river valley in E AR I might bite on this. Last Nov chase I did was 11/30/2018 in Oklahoma.

I can confirm it is over here in NW Arkansas. Been doing it for at least an hour. Starting to stick in places. This might overperform too.

Indeed. haha I am gonna laugh if Friday nights event (which overperformed) winds up being the better of the two. EDIT: Of course the NAM is being the NAM and has been all over the place today. The GFS and Canadian seems a bit more grounded in consistency. Euro has trended dry all around since last week.

Hmm so the latest models kinda pulled the rug out on this event. Looking pretty lackluster for E OK and W AR. TSA is also now saying less than an inch for most of the area too.

NWS TSA is hopping on the bandwagon regarding the model consistency for snowfall, here is their forecast for early next week.

Yes our first official snowfall (and accumulations) occurred tonight here in Fayetteville, AR. While I was skeptical of the models, they apparently nailed it.

Models still showing 2-3 snow chances over the next week but accum amounts are starting to look more realistic as it should be. EDIT: Latest GFS and NAM are still kinda bullish but that's expected for them. Like this one from the 12Z GFS showing pockets of 2-4" happening over the next 24-36 hours across parts of northern AR. A lot of this if it were to fall will likely melt due to ground temps being warm. Though elevated grassy surfaces and trees that still have leaves may have it accumulate. Roads should be fine.

Lol I was about to post some models up too. Not often you see November snowfall with several inches around here, but it's looking like a real possibility with the three major long range models continuing to show signs. Will be curious to see if it holds come this weekend.