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stormdragonwx

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  1. stormdragonwx
    Some models vary but the end of the week might get interesting for some of us. Thoughts?
  2. stormdragonwx
    Just... eww. That really sucks.
  3. stormdragonwx
    Could be true. It will be interesting to see how much of that wraparound holds together or intensifies as well. The latter could also decide things for SW MO and NE OK.
  4. stormdragonwx
    There's talk of a dreaded Dry Slot now... that could kill our overall totals here in AR too. Storm was too good to be true. https://twitter.com/NWSLittleRock/status/1618057323569713153?s=20
  5. stormdragonwx
    Was driving around. Been parked up here by Drake Field/Greenland with 1.5-2 in of accumulation already. Its covering parking lots and the main streets now with the latter being a slushy mess but still covered. Large heavy snowflakes continue to fall.
  6. stormdragonwx
    Indeed I was surprised how quick it changed over and accumulated since my last post. And yes it's sticking to both grassy surfaces and surprisingly even to parking lots and lesser driven streets. Dropped rapidly to 34 at my location over the past hour. Large wet heavy flakes falling.
  7. stormdragonwx
    Yeah higher elevations might still get the forecast 6-12" over my way but I think where I am at Im probably gonna be seeing 4-6" max if this doesn't shift SE as some models are wanting to hint at otherwise. Lower 40's temps is not a good sign.
  8. stormdragonwx
    Hoping the temps start to crash soon here in NWA or the forecast might get blown. Currently 42 here at my place.
  9. stormdragonwx
    Fun times ahead. Figured its time to break out the HREF data. Its been awhile. Also worth noting, the 8"+ parameter probs are lit up too. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_prob_series&sector=sp&postage_stamp=true
  10. stormdragonwx
    That's the one thing the TV Mets are going on about down here right now, they aren't buying the 10:1 ratios and staying conservative on the totals thinking the 32-34 degree temps could make the ratios closer to 7:1 which makes sense as the snow would be wetter and cause compaction. Its noteworthy TSA and SGF are sticking to the 10:1 data though. It will be interesting to see who winds up being right and if this storm system does go colder.
  11. stormdragonwx
    Winter Storm Warning just issued. Extends all the way out into New Mexico. Edit: Ninja'd by NWAflizzard lol
  12. stormdragonwx
    "CIPS historical analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982 systems." I remember the Christmas 2002 snowstorm. I was in SW Missouri at the time. That was fun. Had 26 inches on the ground for Christmas day.
  13. stormdragonwx
    Heh ironically my station down here did the opposite on the 10pm news. Too funny how they flipped.
  14. stormdragonwx
    @ouamber Its also digging and slowing down a bit more when you look at the model trend loops. This means nearly everyone will be seeing more snow. I am still just impressed with how well the models have overall locked on with this system.
  15. stormdragonwx
    Local forecast totals from KY3 in Springfield and KNWA in Fayetteville. Naturally the guys here in Arkansas are playing it more conservative. Its not too often we see 8+ here.
  16. stormdragonwx
    Crazy to see the NAM is now being more bullish than the GFS. (Posting Kuchera because I personally feel the 10:1 totals are too unrealistic approaching 2 feet in spots)
  17. stormdragonwx
    00z GEFS a bit disorganized on agreement tonight. Will have to see if this trends after tonight now that the system is onshore. I suspect its a bad run.
  18. stormdragonwx
    Indeed the NAM has nudged north a bit with more widespread heavy totals and seems to be following what the GFS and Euro have been showing. I am still skeptical of what the actual temps will be on the day of so the 10:1 ratio might be exaggerated but I also think the "Snow Depth" parameter that some are swearing by is underdone. Best to take the two and work towards the middle.
  19. stormdragonwx
    As mentioned above the first NAM samplings in range of the storm going out to 84 hours is encouraging. I expect more than likely this will probably shift back north slightly in the next few runs.
  20. stormdragonwx
    I give it another 24-36 hours to let the models settle. This is a classic case of the models shifting back & forth on the track as the system gets sampled.
  21. stormdragonwx
    Don't get me wrong, I would actually love to see a repeat of the Feb 2nd, 2011 event and there are some similarities starting to take shape here nearly 12 years to the day, but I feel we got a ways to go just yet before I can actually say it. lol
  22. stormdragonwx
    Don't jinx it and it all falls apart by Sunday night. lol
  23. stormdragonwx
    haha The good ol' GFS teasing us with crazy totals days before the event as usual. Now if the Euro does this later on as well, its all hands on deck. EDIT: UKMET is not as crazy but shows a very similar swath. Waiting to see what the Euro and Canadian show here shortly.
  24. stormdragonwx
    00z Euro and UKMET also going all gung ho with this storm.
  25. stormdragonwx
    00z GFS and Canadian look fun.
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