stormdragonwx

I was gonna say... I'd be happy with the Canadian. Gotta remember with the extreme cold the ratios will be greater than 10:1.

IDK I have a feeling this is one of those setups where theres gonna be a sharp cut-off south of the 412 line while areas north will get absolutely dumped on. At least with what the data trends indicate. Impressive Ensemble agreement though. Someone here is getting dumped on soon.

When the NAM, Short Range Canadian (RDPS), and HRRR don't hop on in the next couple days, that's when I will get concerned.

Oh boy. I was just made aware of this. Not sure what else to say here. This is the same guy that sparked the "drive south" memes.

I feel ya on that. Expecting it to all be gone by Tuesdays runs when the hi-res NAM and HRRR get hold of it. lol

This 100%, while they can still be faulty, I am paying more close attention to Ensembles for this reason.

Oh and the Ensembles continue to trend up with more members getting snowier. From the 12z GEFS:

With as much snow pack as these models are spitting out in some instances, it could tank the temps even more.

But man look how many Ensembles dump on the 4 state area. Another thing to note too that hasn't really been covered is with the temps being as cold as some of these models are forecasting, the 10:1 ratio on the models might not be the best way to gauge how much snow will actually fall. If we are looking at teens and single digits, this may be a 20-25:1 ratio with overall amounts still depending on the timing/track of any system that comes thru with sufficient moisture to work with. The latter will be key to all this.

Lol that 18z GFS is too good to be true. That would blow the '09 event out of the water if so. Though here is the Ensemble from the 18z GFS.

On the website I linked I will note it's just the GFS Ensembles. It's the 2nd tab from the right labeled GEFS. Your options for which GEFS data to view are on the left then just run the slider on the bottom to view the forecast hours. Hope that helps.

For simplicity and ease of access, you have this one here to play around with on the COD page. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Previous Run Comparison: https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/prun/?type=2022121506-GEFS-SGP-winter-snens-258

Pretty good discussion here: https://twitter.com/weatherdan/status/1603212360826617856?s=20&t=mOWWzMh CONUS Euro Ensemble Probs: https://twitter.com/weatherdan/status/1603212396356591617/photo/1

That's close to Feb 2011 cold!

Indeed both the GFS and Euro last night on the 0Z runs were on board with a snowy scenario. EDIT: Just saw the 06z run on the GFS, nearly two feet for parts of OK/KS. Yeah right. lol

Hopefully the cold air remains deep enough thru the duration. SW flow aloft could also indicate Ice Storms. I vividly remember the one I experienced for Christmas in '00.

A nice swath appearing on the 18z GFS right over 412 and 40 at 180 hrs out. Euro is possibly showing something at the tail end of its run again too. EDIT: Canadian has it too but its showing MO/KS getting it instead.

I really liked the one that gave me 14" on the 24th a few posts back. lol

Yeah in the next few days the Euro should start to come into a better range to give us a better idea.

Indeed for those wanting a White Christmas, chances are higher than normal this year for much of the area for sure. While 200+ hours is still fantasy land forecasting, the GFS has been consistently showing something happening that week. See the current 06z run valid for Christmas Eve. One thing that is for sure is the cold air WILL be in place.

I am still liking the current trends. There has been run to run consistency despite it being 200+ hours out that someone around here may get some snow Christmas week. Ensembles seem to hint at it too. The cold air WILL be in place. EDIT: Obviously, it was a total fantasy land forecast from the other day but I'd love to see this come true. Lock it in. lmao

Either way its still been over a decade. lol Though '09 was right before Christmas (like this could have the potential of being) if things set up just right. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/24dec2009_blizzard It was memorable for me as I had to race east after getting off work to stay ahead of it on 412 as I was living in Tulsa at the time and was heading back home to visit family in AR for the holidays that year. That was... interesting. lol

I'd totally take a repeat of '09. I believe that was the last time TSA issued a Blizzard Warning.

Still too far out to take serious but things might get interesting as we get around the 20th.

I was wondering when someone was gonna post this. Yeah, this is incredible. I always thought the EF scale should have better definitions in its rating process when something like this is documented. https://www.weather.gov/oun/efscale Another example IIRC is when the Moore and El Reno tornadoes ripped up highway pavement.