stormdragonwx

Don't get me wrong, I would actually love to see a repeat of the Feb 2nd, 2011 event and there are some similarities starting to take shape here nearly 12 years to the day, but I feel we got a ways to go just yet before I can actually say it. lol

Don't jinx it and it all falls apart by Sunday night. lol

haha The good ol' GFS teasing us with crazy totals days before the event as usual. Now if the Euro does this later on as well, its all hands on deck. EDIT: UKMET is not as crazy but shows a very similar swath. Waiting to see what the Euro and Canadian show here shortly.

00z Euro and UKMET also going all gung ho with this storm.

00z GFS and Canadian look fun.

I'll take it. Lock... it... in... lol

Well the majority of this month looks depressing (and boring)... so much for winter. Hopefully February sticks to its historical standard and delivers.

Eastern OK now has 2 active tornado warnings on the cells that blew up along US 69.

The new Tornado Watch was recently issued with 60/40 probs. That area of clearing over the triple point could become interesting. Not good for people in this area and to the east of there.

Interesting new Meso Discussion. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0005.html Also the convective outlook expanded the 10% hatched area further north and west.

Hard to say here in Fayetteville, very powdery wind blown snow. Measured 1/2" in some spots and 2" in others.

Looks like some mesoscale banding might be setting up with this snow squall. Appears to be back building across N OK. https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJuYXRpb25hbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05NS4wMzYsMzUuOTgyXSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcsImxheWVyIjoiYnJlZl9xY2QifSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjp0cnVlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOmZhbHNlLCJvcGFjaXR5Ijp7ImFsZXJ0cyI6MC4yNCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MX19

Yup its here. Just passed thru SE Fayettevlle. Had a nice shelf cloud with it too. Getting cold and windy quick.

TSA revising down their totals per their Decision Support page. Of course they have always been conservative on forecasting. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp Though it does make me wonder if they are either following the NAM or ICON model. The latter has halved the totals from yesterday's runs, especially on the southern edge.

Indeed its always fun to be surprised by an over-performing storm but I feel more than likely this is what most of us will see.

Yeah I think south of 412 will be lucky to see an inch 2" tops. IMO

Man, who killed the forum? lol Here is the 18z Euro. And the 00z ICON

Make sense for them. I figured SGF would either today or tomorrow. You guys up there will have a lot more going on. Meanwhile TSA is continuing to dial back on the snow impacts and focusing on the wind chills.

Oh I am sure it will. It will be interesting to see nonetheless.

Looks like models are trending drier and further north again. As it sits I think outside of MO and KS we will see 1" maybe 2" at best. HRRR and 3km NAM are coming into range and seem to indicate the same.

And here's the 2m Temps during the day Thurs. Impressive.

Yeah here is the output data from that model. Its being more generous with the snow totals as well.

I will be very curious to see what kind of ratios we will see if we do get temps in the single digits for highs as some of the data indicated.

I expected as much. GFS Ensembles are still pulling away on the snow chances and keeping it back up north. Bye Bye White Christmas if this holds. Better hope the Euro/Canadian and short range models don't follow in the next day or so. Instead of HWY 412 being the cut-off line this may be a HWY 60 event, if that.

Heh yeah it almost seems like the 00z GFS Ensembles heard my earlier comment about the HWY 412 cut-off line. Definitely shifted north on a lot of these.