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stormdragonwx

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Everything posted by stormdragonwx

  1. stormdragonwx
    00z runs (divide totals by 2 to account for melting that will likely occur) HRRR NSSL-WRF FV3 3km NAM RRFS-A
  2. stormdragonwx
    Yeah looks to be returning to our Nov-Dec pattern. Wonder what the rest of Feb into March shows or if that was our winter for the season.
  3. stormdragonwx
    Yeah Dan Skoff in his FB Live Update towards the end of the video sounded quite worried about how this could potentially overperform. The AR River Valley along I-40 could really get it. https://www.facebook.com/NWAWeatherAuthority/videos/930132298622291
  4. stormdragonwx
    I will say I am not too thrilled about the icing potential next week. At least in snow you can get around if you know what you are doing. It also means more power disruptions which is not ideal with the extreme cold we have had.
  5. stormdragonwx
    Could be my imagination but it might be back building a bit towards Tulsa on the latest radar scans?
  6. stormdragonwx
    Currently 1 degree with moderate to heavy snow falling. About 2" so far.
  7. stormdragonwx
    Yeah and people were panic buying at the stores over the past couple days too once the Watch/Warning got posted. A lot of people are gonna be PO'd. We will probably just see a repeat performance of Friday with flurries and a dusting at best. I mean this isn't even warning criteria. Really confused on why they went with the Warning.
  8. stormdragonwx
    Yeah 00z models appear to be coming in even drier. I am thinking this is gonna bust and they will downgrade the warnings to an advisory.
  9. stormdragonwx
    Personally I'm really surprised they went for a Warning. 2-4" is barely even Warning criteria. (4+ is) Another thing too is the air is extremely dry at the midlevels which will cause sublimation to occur.
  10. stormdragonwx
    With the models trending drier I am expecting TSA and the others will drop the watch and replace it with another advisory.
  11. stormdragonwx
    Watch it winds up being right.
  12. stormdragonwx
    Yeah GFS took a dump too. Not as dramatically as the Euro, but noticeable. 4-6" looks to be the high end versus the widespread 6-12" we were looking at a couple days ago. Only one still going crazy is the Canadian but its focusing a swath of 15-20 inches (Kuchera) way down in Central/Southern AR now. Looks like the moisture is being choked off & shunted to the SE. And naturally I got new tires and wiper blades. lol
  13. stormdragonwx
    Yeah the NAM and Euro seem to be out to lunch OR they are right and a massive bust is inbound. Fingers crossed for the GFS/Canadian.
  14. stormdragonwx
    Man I swear if the rug gets pulled out from under us again... I'm hoping this is just the typical "bad run before the storm" model fluke. lol
  15. stormdragonwx
    I will be curious to see if we get some Blizzard Warnings issued in the 4 state area for this late weekend system. The potential is there.
  16. stormdragonwx
    Models still looking kinda depressing. Looks like the rug got pulled out for a lot of us.
  17. stormdragonwx
    Yeah I am writing off Tuesdays setup and holding out hope for Friday... if it doesn't stay too far north too. The next 72 hours will tell the tale.
  18. stormdragonwx
    Pretty amused with the silly GFS model calling snowpocalypse next week for Northern Arkansas with 3+ feet happening in that pocket over Harrison. Society would come to a screeching hault if this were to happen. lol
  19. stormdragonwx
    I've felt the Euro has always performed the best on Winter Scenarios.
  20. stormdragonwx
    I'll take this Euro run. See if it holds for the upcoming 00z run. lol
  21. stormdragonwx
    Tulsa playing it conservative as usual. lol I guess they really don't trust the models.
  22. stormdragonwx
    Up to 3" here now too and the band has still not cleared the area yet.
  23. stormdragonwx
    Yeah a definite overperformer over here. Got an inch in less than an hour. Its covering streets and driveways too. Probably have 2+ inches on the east side of town. The heaviest part of the band hasn't moved all the way thru yet.
  24. stormdragonwx
    Rapid changeover happening in eastern OK right now. Possible heavy snow occurring.
  25. stormdragonwx
    HRRR still wants to overperform on this upcoming weekend system. GFS, Canadian, Euro and UKMET all hitting hard for next weeks system still. Euro being the most conservative.
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