stormdragonwx

NAM is warmer and not as aggressive on totals or storm progression.

RDPS (Canadian short range) coming into range now showing a very aggressive solution by Tues afternoon into the evening as the storm ramps up. This doesn't account for overnight into Weds... wow

00z Canadian and ICON went bonkers over the hwy 60 corridor in OK/MO with 20+ inches in spots.

Yeah I'm being cautious on this one till Sunday as it could come in much drier and/or further north. Tho it's unlikely to be another 34 deg and rain scenario for my area like this last system was.

Fingers crossed we get heavy snow versus ice like what some data is hinting at.

Local TV Mets jumping onboard now too. Next Tues-Thurs could be fun. Glad winter isn't done. You also got this being posted

Totally ready to do this again next weekend too. Lol

It must have really came down after I went to bed as I measured just shy of 3 inches. Got just shy of 7 inches on the east side of Fayetteville with the wraparound still moving in.

Just noticed Tulsa revised up the totals again on their DSP page after dropping them earlier this evening when the 00z models came out. Hmmm

Dry air intrusion has been an issue driving down rates and the overall size of the flakes themselves in NW AR. Though over the past 30 mins I have noticed the snow has started to back build and fill the dry slot thats been streaming over the Vance and Fredrick radar sites out in Oklahoma. Apparently Kiowa, KS and the Amarillo, TX metro got 10-12" respectively. Go to those radar sites and you will see a pretty hefty band on the back side of this system with its wraparound. Now whether it dries up before it gets over here is another story. EDIT: Actually the band extends all the way back to Lubbock, TX and Clovis, NM

Yeah looks like we are getting what Tulsa got a year or so ago... As I feared.

Now cue the dry slot to troll the forecasters now that they caved lol

Yeah I highly doubt we will get above freezing like what the local TV Mets were saying would happen to limit totals and ratios. It's 9am and just barely over 20 degrees with cloud cover already heavy. Ground will be plenty cold to stick. Modeled HRRR was saying upper 30's right now last night. Not happening.

Basically yes its referencing the fact I have seen a really good forecast setup bust as short as 4-6 hours out. e.g. warm air intrusion or excessive dry slotting

Insane. As mentioned in a prior post, I really hope this isn't Lucy with the football. lol

SREF Averages GEFS Averages

After saying no snow yesterday the 00z NAM just blew up... wow Though I find interesting the local TV mets here are saying we will warm well above freezing overnight (due to warm air advection) into the morning limiting snowfall, where I am at we haven't been above freezing since Sunday. Its totally clear and in the teens tonight. I don't see it happening but stranger things have happened and we get a big sleet storm as a result.

Here is the GEFS modeled ensemble members showing potential snowfall over the next 84 hours.

18z NAM almost on par with the crazy totals the Canadian has been showing for a good bit. It's a good sign to see it trending up 12 hours out from the event.

Looks like a 2nd dry slot in NWA right over my house too on that model. Hopefully this doesn't trend.

Ive remained skeptical of this setup for the past few days. It shows signs of Lucy pulling the Football like most of these tend to do. This has huge bust potential.

Logically & climatologically speaking I am finding it absurd to think much of central and northeast TX could see over a foot of snow by next weekend. I still expect the models to jog the storm track 50-75 miles more to the north putting the I-44 I-40 corridor in the bullseye in the coming days. I'm waiting for the NAM runs to come in.

Finally got a WWA over here at least lol

Indeed typical

10th-11th looks interesting too on the GFS/Canadian models. Euro wants to say its a TX event for a foot of snow which I don't buy.