Kmlwx

That is the absolute story of our severe chances here in the Mid-Atlantic - I'm obviously still watching...but think it's more of just with a one toe in for right now. Tuesday is wayyyy too far out to do any higher end analysis on at this point. The superstitious part of me is happy we are still only at a marginal for tomorrow - we do better when SPC increases last minute lol

Many of the CAMs look pretty lame for Saturday. We'll have to wait and see what the trends look like as we get close. LWX is still honking about Tuesday's potential.

12z NAM (at range, of course) puts the best parameter space to our north up in PA for Saturday. Again, still early - and will be interesting to see where the target shifts around.

Oh I didn't think you were lol

The 12km NAM does show a decent amount of sunshine for Saturday morning. But the GFS says no. I agree - it's too early. I'm out mostly for now.

Glad the whole idea of them staying strong until early July wasn't the case. They were cool for a bit - and then quickly became annoying.

Peaceful quiet here in the Silver Spring area as well. Thinking the heavy rain the other night may have been enough to really thin the herd - and they were already past peak anyway.

It kind of makes you wonder how a 2021 DC/Baltimore area would handle that.

Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win.

Euro tracks the remnants right through our area next week

The Latest HRRR is seemingly a bit more scattered with the sim reflectivity. We're probably in chips fall mode now.

Next hour or two should be interesting to watch on radar.

My dewpoint has come back up to around 65, and GAI has recovered to 63. My mini-meltdown earlier is over. I'm feeling decent.

East of I-95 is probably a better statement.

Yeah - it seemed like the HRRR and some of the other CAMs wanted to push a little tongue of instability and better moisture up right to around DC proper - or even a bit north. Seems like where that gets to or sets up will determine. I still overall like where I am in eastern MoCo, but if I was in Poolesville or even Gaithersburg, I'm not sure I'd feel super warm and fuzzy about a higher severe threat tonight. Meanwhile, if I was in Annapolis I'd feel really nice.

This map tells a pretty interesting story. You can tell where the lower dewpoint air has gotten to. Looks like right around I-95 may be the dividing line. Will have to hope I'm on the right side of that line to see some action.

One thing I'm not sure I like seeing so close to the metro areas - is GAI's dewpoint has dropped to 57. Even CGS is down to 59. The immediate DC stations like DCA, ADW etc are still in the 60s, though. My (potentially not the greatest) sensor here in Colesville has gone from the mid-upper 60s down to 61.7 for the dew. We'll ideally need to advect some of the higher dewpoint air back in for my liking. I don't think we are going to get it done with 50s dews. That potentially could be why some of the CAM runs have shown the activity really getting going only once east of I-95. Could be a little razor thin margin for those in places like MoCo and western half of Howard.

Severe T'storm Watch for western portions of the area. It seems to be less frequently as of the past few years for them to segment the area in events like this. Perhaps a more strongly worded watch for us later if the trends continue towards a decent severe event? The probs on the watches so far have bene pretty low.

18z HRRR might be a smidge earlier again - but it's tiny adjustments at this point.

Could be a bit later given the timing even. Nighttime severe should make for a heck of a lightshow!

17z HRRR looks to focus the threat around Baltimore proper. Kind of amazing how far NWP has come. The complex has mostly been shifting around like a 50 mile or less range in placement.

Can't be mad at this map....

I remember we went through a stretch after 2012 when everyone was calling every line of storms a derecho. That got old quicker than TWC naming winter storms!

Nope. That's just a line of storms. Perhaps it may become a QLCS.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0965.html