Kmlwx

As expected - storm motions aren't particularly fast. We'll see how this activity does once it comes out of the mountains. Likely that we'll see outflow racing out from these shortly.

Now warned for 80mph and golf ball hail. Tops are exceeding 55kft.

Looks like a big downburst could be coming with this one - BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Southeastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... * Until 330 PM EDT. * At 249 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hume, or 8 miles southeast of Front Royal, moving east at 5 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

Front Royal cell is definitely the dominant one thus far.

ML lapse rates aren't as trash as normal either.

Well not quite "up the bay" but a heck of a track.

The 18z GFS has the mythical up the bay track for a tropical system

It's funny that it's kind of following the corridor where the earlier cluster mostly skipped around. I barely saw any rain from the earlier stuff. Looks like a new cell may be pulsing up on the front end of the dying stuff now.

Loudoun storm has departed the earlier warning. Severe probs are going way down now.

Severe wind probs are increasing again on that Loudoun cell after reducing a bit earlier. It may be cycling back up.

Lightning struck an apartment complex in Germantown. 2nd alarm.

Good wind signature on that Loudoun cell. Thinking it will gust out long before it gets to me in Eastern MoCo - but for now it looks dang good. Storms doing a great job of splitting around me for now.

Radar is pretty widespread. Probably some isolated flooding in places tonight.

Thunder from the storm over the MoCo/Fairfax line already being heard here in Colesville. Another wet evening on tap it seems.

Pity meso discussion is out. 5 percent odds of a watch. I'd keep a closer eye on storm motions and heavy rain threat. Some areas really got walloped last night.

https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov/app/nwd/?region=lower48&aoi=default Specific site I mentioned - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/md/nwis/uv/?site_no=01650500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,62615,62620 I somehow didn't realize there was a gauge right near my parent's house. Been there since 1920s!

I am not surprised at all. That report is centered right in an area that had substantial training. NW Branch near Kemp Mill Rd and Randolph Rd went from 3cfs of flow to 706cfs during the height of it. Will be interesting to see where any storms fire and how fast the movement is today. If there's any sort of redveloping/training over the same areas today it could be a lot worse!

Relatively pedestrian here in Colesville, MD. Looks like the biggies went north and well south. Somebody in the MoCo/PG cell will get some good gusts I assume. Turned out to be an active day! Wish I'd been around to track it more - work got in the way.

No severe here IMBY but some nice rumbles of thunder. Hopefully an appetizer for tomorrow.

Just walked out and heard a rumble of thunder - surprised at the radar right now.

This seems like a likely option. (I'm the new you)

Honestly - at least from my weenie eyes, I think a ton of the CAMs are a snoozer for most tomorrow around here. Good parameters on some of them - but a relative min on the reflectivity panels. We'll see how that complex evolves tonight. Sure it'll screw us over.

Long range 18z HRRR seems to contaminate/stabilize our airmass with leftovers from the complex from today.

Uber-high risk and super-PDS watches then. I'm very greedy and needy with weather. Though...I'd trade no more severe for the rest of the calendar year for a single 36 inch snowstorm IMBY this winter.

Meh - high risk or bust - with PDS watches and a continuous bow encompassing the entire region.