Kmlwx

I figured - but wanted to get the true answer! Thanks! The red taggers on here never disappoint. So in "theory" that warm nose being sampled on the LWX/IAD sonde could have actually been sampled a bit away from the launch site? I assume for the purposes of a day like today, it wouldn't have drifted TOO far - and would probably still be representative of the atmosphere above the site?

The heavier band that is moving through the "lull" area right now is sleet in Colesville again. Can hear it sandblasting the windows.

Question for the red taggers - I'll tag a few in hopes that I can get an answer. @high risk @WxUSAF @MN Transplant - How does NWS account for the balloon launches drifting in the wind? In other words, say that in a very strong wind the balloon has drifted tens of miles by the time it samples a warm nose in today's case. Not sure if that's even realistic - but when that data is ingested into the models - does it treat the entire sounding as if it was directly above IAD/LWX - or does it account for the data at different levels being taken at potentially different geographic locations?

Getting a sleet base IMO makes the snow (if any comes) easier to accumulate - and if it comes AFTER snow it tends to make it harder to melt. Sleet sticks around longer!

Getting raked with sleet right now with perhaps some ZR mixed in.

So the "claw" was kind of legit? Radar shows it a bit and it's not doing much here at the moment. Nice sleety base on the walkway and parts of the street, though.

Just waking up - but I can hear a lot of pingers against my window here in Colesville, MD. Not sure what the ptype breakdown is here yet and haven't looked at road conditions.

I'm very late - but yes!

Would be nice if LWX would do some supplemental balloon launches tomorrow as well to assess the warm layer. It's a shame BWI/DCA don't have balloon launches as well (being closer to the fall line).

I'm not sure I entirely agree with this - at least for MBY. I haven't ever hit (this year) those illusive 1-2 inch an hour rates (even for a short time). Even if the mix line comes in fast, this seems like it will be less "splotchy" and less spaced out than prior events. More precip in a shorter period of time than past events.

Great map! What are your thoughts for how bad the icing threat will be to the south and east of 95?

It's not relevant. Those ptype radars are notoriously bad and are just estimates (and often poor ones at that). If you want to get an accurate view - use radar and then look at mPING reports to see ground truth. Don't trust consumer weather apps or gimmicky radar apps.

I was hoping you'd give me the "NEVER" answer. Now I feel too inner circle

When will the watch be upgraded to a warning?

I'm mostly taking the Bob Chill approach this year - so I hope this was not targeted at me. Cover my grass so I can't see the blades and I'm happy. Yes - a HECS is fun - but snow is fun. I've turned into more of a severe guy myself.

They are pretty good about getting the 88Ds back up in a timely manner. They got the LWX radar back up a few days ahead of schedule when the bullgear failed.

It's worth waiting for the 3km frames to be out. It will handle thermals better than the 12km run.

There's many annoyances on this here weather forum - but posting banter and then straight up labeling it as such in the main thread defeats the purposes of having a banter thread. At least this time people agree on what a frame shows. Half the time one person says "it looks suppressed" and the other person says "looks way more amped"

But to be honest - I think for most people who do it - it's almost their way of saying "If I put 'Banter' in my post I can break the rule!" When I start my career as a carjacker I'm going to scream CARJACKING whenever I steal one.

Starting your post with "Banter:" in the main thread will 100% make me wonder if you've even looked in the thread listing.

Gotta love it...

600 to 700 is to the left of the freezing line in that.

@mappy wouldn't do this unless I made a map and committed major mapping no-nos. I'd omit a legend/color scale, put incorrect data on it, put a city or two in the wrong place and use the worst projection possible. Then she might do this.

Also...does anybody else here get irrationally frustrated when their non-weather friends/coworkers insist that it is "hailing" outside in winter? And when corrected they are emphatic that no...they are correct and that ice balls are hail?