Kmlwx

Just took a short walk into the woods by my parent's house (Northwest Branch Unit #4) and couldn't find a single trace of cicada activity other than a few sporadic holes. I don't remember if 2004 was so splotchy with the early emergence.

It really depends on what kind of 80s - if you mean 80s with 40-50s dews - yes please. 80s with 70s dews nooo thank you. You know me - only time 60+ dews are acceptable is if they bring us woo storms!

I don't remember cicadas peeing on me in 2004 - but I was a real youngster so maybe I was just ignoring the fact that I was being showered by pee.

The low dewpoints depicted mostly throughout the run lately on the GFS have been impressive. Other than a short window of 60s dews in the middle of the run (near the 180hr mark) the dewpoints remain low for this time of year. Very non-soupy.

Do the air temperatures have a big impact on them? I'd imagine unless we are down close to freezing - once they are out they will be fine. Is it just the soil temps that impact the emergence and then after that not much to hold them back?

Just a very rudimentary analysis - but we are cooked for a while it seems on severe potential (outside of a sneaky surprise or an isolated threat). Looking at the CIPS run from overnight, most of the US is devoid of major swaths of severe analog probs through the 120hr mark. Then...the extended range does show some promise - but mainly to our west and south and very late in the run. Looking at the GFS - the juicy dewpoints do try to make a run at us but get shunted largely to the south and then we get dry dewpoints again. Excellent look for comfortable weather through the run...not so nice if you're straining at the bit for more storm chances. I could see this being a bit of a rubber band style pattern - we go weeks and weeks with not a lot to track - and then something changes and bam we go on a heater for a week or two (or longer). Either that or we just have a very, very quiet later spring/early summer severe season.

Would think that the cool temps *could* delay the emergence a bit. But it would seem to me that on a very sunny day, even if the air temp is relatively cool, the soil temps can still rise with the baking sun.

Surprised it's even at 20%. This is a 5% kind of day IMO. At least until you get east of the bay.

Dewpoint down to 55 at JYO. If anything else is going to pop it'll probably be with that line of activity coming through the higher terrain now. Dews are still 66 at ADW, DCA, CGS

One thing that may kill chances - dews are already falling pretty close-in. Martinsburg, Winchester and Leesburg are all already into the upper 50s. GAI is still at 66 but the drop is probably starting there as well. It's possible that line going through Baltimore is the show today.

Lots of sunshine here now. Still think along and east of I-95 is the play here. And not anything too severe. After @George BM - mentioned Friday I took a look - does look promising for some small hail that day.

Mesoanalysis already has some pockets of 500 SBCAPE around. Not expecting anything too severe today. But a stronger cell or two if we can get some heating would be within reason. Mesoanalysis also shows a bit better shear parameters than yesterday. Satellite has some good clearing to the west - still pretty cloudy here in Colesville, MD.

Nothing significant - but it does look like the 0z ARW, ARW2 and NMM sweep a narrow line across some areas between 16z and 18z.

Pretty much a snoozer for you and me (I'm in Colesville today). Just a little rain. Modeling has us getting missed to the south and east tomorrow as well. Ugh.

That new warning for Loudoun and Fairfax is pretty meh on LWX radar.

The HRRR seemed to keep the main show along I-66 and then through DC proper but not a lot north of there. Would like to see just a bit more northerly motion with the activity. It's more messy looking on radar lately - but wonde rif part of that is the higher terrain

It's the entirety of Brood X coming to murderkill us all.

Replying to myself but also @WxUSAF - Gotta wonder if it's something related to VA-267. At least roughly if you follow on Google Earth an imaginary line running from the radome to the ESE along 267 and then continue that line - it would end up somewhere near/just south of Easton...maybe traffic?

I actually hopped over to Twitter to see if the person who kept mentioning it was mentioning it this time. Would be interesting to look at the path of the beam and the nearby terrain and buildings to see if one could identify a source. Definitely seems more common when there's actual returns coming in from the west.

It's broad for the time being. Will be interesting to see how that cell/complex evolves as it comes out of the Blue Ridge areas. My personal prediction is that it'll get close to the metro area and gust out into the typical outflow and heavy rain

Echo tops on that complex have been steadily increasing as well. Over 40kft now.

Lots of clouds around now.

Pretty much the entire CWA other than the extreme far NW counties.

If it can grow - it's already kind of looking like one of those mythical long lines of severe storms that we've anecdotally all said we remember being more common in the 90s and 2000s.

That complex of storms is looking really nice. Some nice wind velocity on it too.