ORH_wxman

Nobody will be happy because they all know there’s a chance to get those epic snow packs…30”+ type stuff…given the pattern shown. No torches to be seen so any snow that falls can keep stacking on top of previous snow. That’s what everyone is chasing now.

Yes most likely. It was a ridiculous airmass.

Super Bowl weekend.

GFS was trying to pull a Feb 2013 for a second....ends up just being a more regular Miller B....but that northern stream almost caught up with the southern s/w

ORH back then was a coop so it kind of sucks....the hourly airport obs didnt start until 1947 I don't think and it didn't go official until 1948.

I'm a little sicko for -PNA/-NAO patterns....so I'm ok with the look going into the 2nd week of Feb after the PNA breaks down. Maybe we can go Feb '69. Or early Feb 2021?

Pretty boring for the next 5-6 days, but we'll have more chances coming up.

I like the look Feb 5-12. Looks like there could be a few chances.

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org go to “consecutive days” under the single station drop down.

That's embarrassing. Anyways, ORH has had a pretty good streak going of not hitting 20F. Today is day 6 and tomorrow will be day 7 of continuous sub-20F temps. We haven't had a signature crazy cold outbreak but it's been consistent solidly BN cold just bleeding down the monthly departure. 7 days would be ties for 3rd longest streak on record with late Dec-early Jan 1918, Jan 2000, and late Dec-early Jan 2018. We might get to 9 days on Sunday but I think Monday will finally break the streak before we can reach 10 days. 10 days is the record....both 1979 and 1961 hit 10 days. Still an impressive streak even if we stop at 9.

GFS is advisory for 2/5....Euro is 2/7 and also advisory for SNE, but it blows it up in gulf of maine and crushes a lot to Maine with 12"+.....a lot fo iron out on that threat. Totally different evolutions.

You know this storm is in bad shape when he’s not posting.

EPS

Still surprised the euro is crushing the cape.

Workable at this time range

The whole setup sucks...trough is so far east....GFS shifted west with the trough but the low still escapes with convection...we need a wholesale shift west in successive model cycles.

GFS Should be better than 06z but that isn't saying much.

To add onto this, because the trough is so far east, you need some exotic things to happen....which the Euro pulls off, but you are relying on something with very little wiggle room. This isn't like the SWFE last week where we could basically not care much about 50-75 mile shifts....even the very aggressive northward trend in the 36-48h range barely brought sleet to the south coast.

Just not enough room...the trough is too far east. When it was digging further west through W TN/AR and LA/MS, it had more room.

Slightly worse than 00z. You are still in the game but the rest of us are prob done

Yeah. I mean there’s a chance he’s right but it’s still very uncertain. You don’t want to overstate it to the public yet because then they will go wild too.

It was the 12z OP GFS on Christmas Eve. It was so outlandish that even the NCEP model diagnostic discussion tossed it! Lol.

Lol I saw it labeled as Feb 10th. I thought it was another storm in the pipeline so I got confused. But yeah if that is for Sunday’s storm, that max band at H7 is prob your western death band.

When did 18z run to 300+ hours? Is that new?

I’m actually somewhat shocked at how bad the response to this storm has been. None of the storms like Feb 2021 or Jan 2022 or the 2018 storms caused this type of disruption. This area got really soft the last 2-3 years.