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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Meridional flow definitely overcomes a lot of imperfections.
  2. ORH_wxman
    The funny part is it never corrects itself. I’ve seen countless threats that had interference but it was overcome either due to vort strength or one of the shortwaves changed slightly. But we’ve never trended away from it recently.
  3. ORH_wxman
    I’ll give 1/18-19 another day or so to trend better but otherwise yeah, we wait until post-1/20
  4. ORH_wxman
    Unlikely we get anything of note. I’ll still hold out a little hope for 1/18-1/19 but we need some good trends on that over the next day or two.
  5. ORH_wxman
    What the most interesting out of the entire synoptic landscape over the next 7-9 days is that we see this mean trough in an almost ideal spot over the eastern third of the CONUS with multiple shortwaves that dive into that mean trough and we fail to get a single decent QPF event out of it. It’s almost the anti-2015….surgical precision of somehow not producing.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Give it a couple weeks. We’ll get the inevitable Biloxi, MS blizzard warning while we have a thread for -15F low temps.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Last year was sneaky cold too (compared to recent winters anyway), though not nearly as cold as this one has been. Both winters have featured a dearth of big systems. It’s just been a lot of dryness.
  8. ORH_wxman
    That was a really good stretch actually after a very frustrating January. We got a moderate event on 1/26 which turned the tide and then we got a big dog on 2/1 and a pretty big event on 2/7. We had our pack over 20” for a time.
  9. ORH_wxman
    You mean we’re not gonna get 100” in 3 weeks? My forecast just got blown up.
  10. ORH_wxman
    They are tepid on both but prob more interested in that little follow-up wave on 1/20 than the 18th.
  11. ORH_wxman
    EPS is still quite snowy in the LR. They are not very interested in 1/18 though. They really seems to like the post-1/20 period.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Needs some work but I wouldn’t rule out an interior shovelable event yet for 1/18. I’m more optimistic beyond that timeframe though.
  13. ORH_wxman
    A lot of the AK coast can be feast or famine like that. They’ll get destroyed for weeks but then they can go like 1-2 months with nada.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Let’s tighten that vort a little more and crush 495. Close that run.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Couple nice beefy SWFEs in the extended on 18z GFS. EPS hinted at this too which is why it has been showing some snow in the 11-15 day. Would be nice to track some higher QPF systems. These less than half inch QPF events are getting brutal.
  16. ORH_wxman
    1/18 has been subtly trending a little better today....won't be that interesting unless it continues to do so for another couple of cycles.
  17. ORH_wxman
    I think he was talking about the 3-week "blitz"....not just the 1/26-27 blizzard. We're unlikely to see that again in our lifetimes. Getting 80-100" of snow in 3 weeks is pretty hard to pull off.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the joint EPO/PNA ridge....kind of like 2015. Usually doesn't verify these days, but I'd take even just the PNA part since antecedent cold in Canada will already be good.
  19. ORH_wxman
    No, why would anyone “trust” guidance this far out for anything? But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. It’s actually a good sign that we’re getting some hits in the extended on OP runs. GFS likes 1/24 too and so did EPS.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Pretty close calls on 18z GFS for 1/18 and 1/20. Gonna be some epic pond skating again by the 23rd.
  21. ORH_wxman
    The cold did leave for a week-plus but it's def not staying away....once we get past Thursday, it's basically BN out to near the end of the month perhaps....we'll see how February starts. Weeklies have been flip-flopping from cold to warm for early Feb.
  22. ORH_wxman
    No shortage of cold as far out as the eye can see on guidance. We just can’t get any type of QPF to run into it.
  23. ORH_wxman
    300-400 mile move in 24 hours....though the possibility was always there due to the massive spread on ensembles. But there's a reason a few days ago I mentioned that 1/15-16 would be all gravy if we got it....it was a very thread-the-needle type look if there ever was one to use as an example.
  24. ORH_wxman
    It's kind of wild that just taking a random loop of the 06z GFS, we have like 3-4 distinct shortwaves over the next 10 days that dive into the eastern US and none of them can produce any meaningful QPF. Hopefully that changes, but this is quickly turning into a very dry winter if we can't get these things to produce anything.
  25. ORH_wxman
    I will say that the EPS continues to get snowier and snowier in the LR. They never got too bullish about the 1/15-1/20 period but they been really liking the period after that. So for us masochists who like tracking these things, that would be your beacon of hope.
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