ORH_wxman

I do like the mean trough position on this look. We have two shortwaves and the kicker might be key here…we want it to dig to help raise the heights ahead of the first one. It will have some destructive interference, but a little bit of that is okay otherwise we’d be trying to rip this north into the Hudson valley. You can see all that vort energy string out ahead of the storm over New England on the op euro which is a problem…it’s preventing downstream ridging to allow this storm to gain latitude

EPS is a bit better than the OP….which isn’t a high bar obviously…but I’d rather that than the other way around. 1-2” for far SE areas it looks like while the OP was a complete whiff even for the cape.

I do like the AIs being more bullish on this. They wanted almost nothing to do with 1/15 which was kind of a red flag. I wouldn’t forecast solely on AI models, but if they are showing more support then that always helps.

Yeah the full description was “the crazy drunk uncle” but we all just shortened it to crazy uncle. Jerry def came up with the name at least 15 years ago…I think it was late 2000s winters.

I had already told Don that once the euro came out, we’d see the vibe shift sharply back in the opposite direction. Im not selling the threat fully just yet. But GFS is obviously an outlier. To be fair though, so is the Euro. Those are the two goalposts. Most guidance is in between those two.

It is front-running too much vorticity it seems like. Keeps those heights lower out ahead of it. If that eases a bit, I think we’d see the trough sharpen nicely but there’s a reasonable chance the Euro is correct on the energy distribution…and if that’s the case, this won’t produce. Hopefully it’s a little too happy with that idea like it’s done a few times this winter.

At least this threat has been semi-bullish on the AI models whereas the Friday threat was pretty much nada on those. Euro trending worse though is definitively a bad sign.

Euro skynet got a little better. Prob solid advisory east of ORH. We wait on the OP run.

My expectation for the Euro is that it gets better but not enough to give meaningful snow to anyone….but enough to keep us interested.

Ukie got worse from 00z. Scrapes the cape now.

If you can time it right, a “kicker” shortwave can partially phase with the main shortwave where the main kind of swings around the kicker…they are both using the same longer wave trough. That’s kind of what happens on the GFS

The other thread is a clown thread. Someone can maybe start a real one for this threat if it gets more support.

Just wait until the Euro takes a dump on our face at 12z and watch the vibe change quickly again.

Still a solid low end warning event on GGEM for eastern zones. Just not a ridiculous Blizzard.

This could be a good hit this run

GFS def trying to give 1-3” of paste too on Saturday for a large chunk of SNE.

Reggie is decent for Saturday PM over a chunk of SNE. Prob 1-2” of paste. It looks very threatening for beyond that but it’s 84 hours on the rgem.

We used to get fake diamond dust all the time when I was living in Holden in the late 80s. It was really just some crappy snowflakes though which would happen when it got really frigid (usually low single digits or below zero), but not nearly cold enough for true Diamond dust. The house was kind of in an elevated valley around 1,000 feet so it was prob ideal for getting that type of setup.

The MJO theory is definitely more sound in my eyes than “we can’t phase in the fast flow” theory. I still think that one is likely temporary though much like other flavor of the month theories in the past 2 decades. This winter seems to be bucking the chronic MJO problem of 2022-2025 but yet we still can’t buy a good system.

I don’t know if it’s voodoo or not. There might be some empirical evidence that supports I to a degree….but like most things in meteorology, I find the attribution of such variables to be overplayed/overrated in explaining our sensible wx. There’s always contradictions…like how we’ve been getting deeply phased troughs out west for several years recently….i guess that raging PAC jet didn’t have a problem phasing out there, but somehow it’s a problem further east where it’s further removed from the source? Yeah, that doesn’t pass the smell test. Same deal with previous claims of blocking being due to low sea ice in the arctic…that theory help up for about a year, lol.

We can relive January 1985?

Deeper phasing out west on those solutions. Apparently phasing in the fast flow paradigm is only a problem for the east coast and not out west when we don’t want it.

Models haven't gotten worse. We just track stuff much further out than we used to. 144 hours used to be utter clown range but now it’s prob akin to like 108-120 from a decade or 15 years ago. And like 96 hours a couple decade ls ago. There’s a lot of threats back then that didn’t even appear until inside 6 days. The Feb 2013 blizzard didn’t show up until about 132-138 hours on the euro (and it was completely by itself for a few runs too)….Feb 2006 didn’t show up until about 108 hours out. A lot of our SWFEs back in the late 2000s/early 2010s didn’t stop trending hard untie inside 36 hours. Also we had far fewer model runs back then so less data to parse creating a veneer of stability.

06z euro was prob 1-2”…esp 495 NW

It would keep trending little by little each run until it was a 12-18” job eastern areas and 6-12 west