ORH_wxman

Twitter is pretty useless for weather. I was thinking about posting on there this winter but not sure I’m going to. Lots of hype. You’ll get that anywhere on social media but it’s especially pervasive where people scroll quickly and you want clicks.

12/23 might be tough in SE areas. Southerly or southwesterly flow in the low levels is never good there. The key though will be how cold we start. Could start off cold enough that it doesn’t matter as much.

The magic dewpoint number is really in the high 30s. Beyond a wetbulb of about 37-38F, the pack melting really takes off. That’s why sometimes you can get a 34F rainstorm on a decent pack and basically see almost no melting. But do it at 40F and it’s a different ballgame. The ice crystal structure changes faster.

AI models are colder beyond Xmas too. Hopefully they have a good idea.

Xmas 2020 was pretty epic. We lost power Xmas morning.

18z Euro still pretty nice for 12/23. Widespread 1-3”.

I mean, they looked good last night, lol. They didn’t look good today. We’ll see what tonight/tomorrow brings.

Less blocking today which is why the runs were warmer in the aggregate....which makes sense. If we see less blocking, we're gonna be pretty warm after Christmas.

Pretty clear break on Atlantic blocking from yesterday/last night on longer range ensembles (esp EPS....GEFS weren't quite as different). That's really the crux of it in the D9-15 range right now. If we get good blocking in the Atlantic, we'll probably be on the cold side of the boundary enough to get some events. If not, then we're gonna torch for a week in the means. The one good constant though is we tend to keep reloading the -WPO anytime it starts to wane, so that alone will probably help us not endure weeks long torches. The cold is always not far away when you have that healthy -WPO.

Euro is still pretty nice for 12/23. Would be awesome to get that to trend a smidge further south to juice it up a little more.

Anything post-Xmas needs to be taken a massive grain of salt right now around this part of the country. The only certainty is the middle of the country will blowtorch.

12z Euro skynet is out too and looks pretty stormy and not overly torchy over the run. I don’t think it’s a very good pattern unless we retrograde it a couple hundred miles at minimum but it wouldn’t take a whole lot of breaks to get through it with a couple decent events.

Actually a decent illustration of how mild it will get if we don’t get good blocking.

Yeah and we had about 11-12” of dense snow in that one. It wasn’t fluff. It was cold/dry but like very dense. Made the pack beyond obscene.

1995-1996 had some semi-interior events too. 12/9, 1/12, and the dual April storms. Coastline struggled a little bit on all of those.

Yeah starting to get some model convergence on it. 06z Euro was a little juicier than the 12z GFS but both have it.

Based on the ridiculous amount of time I’ve spent in my life looking at snowstorm totals and maps, I think the sweet spot was in the 130-140 range in a narrow corridor from Blue Hill to just south of you a few miles inland. Hard to empirically support 150”…not impossible but unlikely.

Yeah a couple of their totals looked a little suspect but it doesn’t matter in the larger scheme. They got destroyed and were ground zero from there to the south shore.

That 77” in Se ORH county looks way off. Which coop was that? I doubt Milford since Milford isn’t that bad of a coop. If it’s Northbridge, beware…I used to toss them regularly.

Yeah that ridge needs to be further west by a decent amount for classic KU look…but that is an interesting look for New England. Kind of a late bloomer Miller B type look can come from that.

No, Hubbdave in 2015. Scooter had like 250% of climo that year, lol.

140% of climo…meh.

What’s weird is the SE ridge is kind of displaced westward right now on weeklies…a little different than a few days ago…and the heights even further SE like near Bahamas/off SE coast are actually BN. Kind of weird…almost El Niño-ish.

Big blocking would help out going into January imho. Most guidance keeps wanting -PNA and a SE ridge. If you overlay strong blocking, then it reduces the chances of cutters and torches. Lot of uncertainty though with the blocking. But it’s def been increasing on all guidance.

06z euro looks pretty nice for 12/23. A solid 1-3” deal for a lot of folks.