ORH_wxman

GFS def trying to give 1-3” of paste too on Saturday for a large chunk of SNE.

Reggie is decent for Saturday PM over a chunk of SNE. Prob 1-2” of paste. It looks very threatening for beyond that but it’s 84 hours on the rgem.

We used to get fake diamond dust all the time when I was living in Holden in the late 80s. It was really just some crappy snowflakes though which would happen when it got really frigid (usually low single digits or below zero), but not nearly cold enough for true Diamond dust. The house was kind of in an elevated valley around 1,000 feet so it was prob ideal for getting that type of setup.

The MJO theory is definitely more sound in my eyes than “we can’t phase in the fast flow” theory. I still think that one is likely temporary though much like other flavor of the month theories in the past 2 decades. This winter seems to be bucking the chronic MJO problem of 2022-2025 but yet we still can’t buy a good system.

I don’t know if it’s voodoo or not. There might be some empirical evidence that supports I to a degree….but like most things in meteorology, I find the attribution of such variables to be overplayed/overrated in explaining our sensible wx. There’s always contradictions…like how we’ve been getting deeply phased troughs out west for several years recently….i guess that raging PAC jet didn’t have a problem phasing out there, but somehow it’s a problem further east where it’s further removed from the source? Yeah, that doesn’t pass the smell test. Same deal with previous claims of blocking being due to low sea ice in the arctic…that theory help up for about a year, lol.

We can relive January 1985?

Deeper phasing out west on those solutions. Apparently phasing in the fast flow paradigm is only a problem for the east coast and not out west when we don’t want it.

Models haven't gotten worse. We just track stuff much further out than we used to. 144 hours used to be utter clown range but now it’s prob akin to like 108-120 from a decade or 15 years ago. And like 96 hours a couple decade ls ago. There’s a lot of threats back then that didn’t even appear until inside 6 days. The Feb 2013 blizzard didn’t show up until about 132-138 hours on the euro (and it was completely by itself for a few runs too)….Feb 2006 didn’t show up until about 108 hours out. A lot of our SWFEs back in the late 2000s/early 2010s didn’t stop trending hard untie inside 36 hours. Also we had far fewer model runs back then so less data to parse creating a veneer of stability.

06z euro was prob 1-2”…esp 495 NW

It would keep trending little by little each run until it was a 12-18” job eastern areas and 6-12 west

At least the skynets are pretty interested this time. They had no interest in the 1/15 threat.

Yeah I was hoping winter storm watches would be posted tonight.

Yep. Almost had 10” in Jan 7, 2024 but fell just shy. Ditto Feb 25, 2022

We might as well get a HECS to break the streak. Last time I went this long without a double digit event, the streak was broken by December ‘92 storm.

Could easily have that 1/24-25 system cut. Depends how much phasing you get. Keeping the shortwave kind of separated from the main PV as long as possible is essential to getting a huge overrunning storm like we see in the 18z run….check out the 12z run if you want to see how it cuts.

Scooter high special

18z GFS trying to make this interesting on 1/18-19....not gonna quite get there but that was a pretty good sharpening of the trough compared to previous runs.

Yeah that was a pretty decent trend toward those GEFS members on the icon. Want to see euro get more enthused though.

Not to mention we’ve had several systems that were initially amped get crunched SE and whiffs or something less impressive…even including the “cutter” this past weekend which ended up a sheared out piece of trash with lots of CAD.

We definitely believe you. Just add in a few more smiley faces to really convince the rest.

Hopefully it looks more like this than a cutter

Oh it’s there. Might get interrupted briefly by a nice cutter but it’s there. We’ll finish January BN on temps unless there is a huge shift in guidance post-weekend.

OP euro is trying for 1/19-20. Actually hits CNE/Maine pretty good. Gets MA with light snows. A little late developing.

Going bye-bye with the big WPO shift again. We warmed up due to the AK/Bering vortex…but back to the heavy -WPO after this week.

Yeah which is why I’m looking forward to the gradient pattern at this point. We might get a cutter but at least there will be QPF events to track in that type of pattern.