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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I’ve been thinking about dropping lurker status on Twitter (I have zero posts in my history) and just going Arnold in Commando on all the awful hypsters on there. I think 10-15 years ago I totally would but now it’s probably not worth taking up the time.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Super bomb. A lot of mets used super bomb as slang for a storm that dropped more than 2mb per hour for extended period of time.
  3. ORH_wxman
    I think you are thinking of 2/13/14….the 2/5/14 storm was much more of a SWFE with a latitude gradient south of SNE.
  4. ORH_wxman
    The DGZ is essentially from the sfc to 700mb on Monday so anything low level is gonna be quite efficient. The question is just how much lift can we generate in the low levels. Stronger onshore flow will certainly help as you push that marine boundary layer into the arctic dome…that alone will generate decent low level lift. But that’s why getting a decent secondary staying to our south as long as possible is key. Once it reaches our latitude, winds in the BL will be less and less onshore.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Lots of barking on 12z guidance so far about next weekend. Both GEM and GFS. GEM is trying for Thursday while GFS is Saturday.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I think you’ll need to tack on 6”+ after the initial overrunning thump to get 20” amounts. That’s possible but it requires some form of a CCB even if it’s mostly lower level…all that onshore flow from 850 and below. Guidance disagrees on the extent of that type of setup early Monday.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Prob a pretty decent call right now based on most guidance. You can almost broadbrush 10-16 across SNE. Maybe go slightly more conservative on the islands. There also might be a stripe of slightly higher amounts if there’s good OES enhancement and CF enhancement in a few spots, but I wouldn’t want to forecast explicitly over 16” for any one spot.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Heights have been showing up a bit lower in Quebec on the 12z runs so far. The stuff out west is still amped, so it’s actually a good combo for a lot of us because it runs into an even more stout brick wall than before which will increase QPF
  9. ORH_wxman
    RGEM looks a touch suppressed too with the heights to our north. Everything out west looks great though.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Maybe 1 in 3? I’d prob forecast 10-15” at the moment….
  11. ORH_wxman
    This reminds of the scene on the plane in the movie Con Air when Steve Buchemi’s character is commenting on another convict…he says, “That guy is so angry that moments of levity actually cause him pain, gives him headaches. Happiness for that man hurts.”
  12. ORH_wxman
    Slightly more confluence too so you’re gonna be absolutely slamming some big fronto.
  13. ORH_wxman
    What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing.
  14. ORH_wxman
    About an inch here.
  15. ORH_wxman
    06z op Euro looks pretty nice
  16. ORH_wxman
    Looks like BOS is getting the ol’ 7-10 split
  17. ORH_wxman
    Looks like the GFS will not whiff on the phase like 18z did.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Just training over here right now.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Now we’re rocking. This is pounding.
  20. ORH_wxman
    That happens when you go into a very snowy pattern. It just finds ways to snow. It’s like running hot at the plate in baseball or hot hand in basketball. You had the same thing happen to you last Saturday. Like a 1-2” event turned into 4-5”.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I like that look. Delays the overrunning some with the lower heights north of us but you still have a ton of energy diving down the backside ready to crush that baroclinic zone. Too bad it’s the clown range NAM
  22. ORH_wxman
    Really starting to pick up. Everything coated. Might be able to squeeze out an inch looking at radar.
  23. ORH_wxman
    The funny part about that CF showing up a bit inland is that the south shore might be like 30F but with obscenely steep lapse rates up to like 900mb. You’re getting ocean enhancement but might be enhanced by low level instability.
  24. ORH_wxman
    You may get some CF enhancement for a time anyway.
  25. ORH_wxman
    It's a longer duration SWFE, but basically same mechanics. Since we have all this gulf moisture and the cold dome is extreme, we can wring out a lot of precip versus the usual 0.5-0.75 we normally do. It would be our biggest region-wide storm in years regardless. There's still a chance we can trend it higher, but you'd need that secondary stuff.
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